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Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:18 PM

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Romney +1.2

•Obama made up some lost ground against Romney, with the GOP challenger’s lead shrinking to 1 point from 5 points a day earlier.
•Romney’s margin over Obama among independents, a key voting bloc, shrank from 20% on Day 2 to 15% on Day 3.
•Romney’s significant 36-point lead with white males dropped to 28 points — still substantial.
•Meanwhile, Romney had shown a surprising 3-point lead in the West for two straight days. That reversed itself, however, in the latest poll, with Obama leading in the West by 46%-42%.


http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

14 replies, 1308 views

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Romney +1.2 (Original post)
TexasCPA Oct 2012 OP
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #1
Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #2
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #4
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #7
TroyD Oct 2012 #8
ProSense Oct 2012 #12
mzmolly Oct 2012 #3
gcomeau Oct 2012 #5
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #6
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #9
woolldog Oct 2012 #10
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #11
woolldog Oct 2012 #13
fugop Oct 2012 #14

Response to TexasCPA (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:19 PM

1. If The Pres Maintains His Momentum Robme Will Be Around Zero By Election Day

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Response to TexasCPA (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:24 PM

2. So Romney dropped 4 pts in one day?

Real credible.

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Response to Alekei_Firebird (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:26 PM

4. I agree.

This poll swings too much for a tracking poll.

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:33 PM

7. If I recall...

...this particular tracker was craptastic in 2008, and I see little evidence it's improved any.

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:34 PM

8. Let's just be glad Romney went down

And not look a gift horse in the mouth.

We need the national polls to get better for Obama and erase Romney's lead in RCP.

It affects the entire media narrative.

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Response to Alekei_Firebird (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:52 PM

12. Wingnut polling.

The week has seen a bombardment of polling from right leaning organizations, which have skewed the poll averages.

I mean, most of the Rasmussen polls show Obama regaining or gaining ground. When Rasmussen is among the most reliable, that's a clue.

Rasmussen: Obama takes lead in CO and Iowa, NH tied, still leads CT, NM, NV, PA and WI (updated 3x)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021507150

It's not to say that all the other right leaning polls are off, but some of them are in line with what they have always shown, small leads for Obama or Romney slightly ahead. The problem is that a poll showing a one-point lead for Obama as a trend is going to drop the average if several such polls come out at once.

Still, some of the polls dragging down the margins are downright unreliable, including Gravis.

Having said that, things returning to normal.



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Response to TexasCPA (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:24 PM

3. Good sign.

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Response to TexasCPA (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:26 PM

5. Most Important Point

Polling period: 10/5 - 10/10

The first post-debate polling day just dropped off and look what happened.

Tomorrow the *second* post debate polling day drops off.

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Response to gcomeau (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:32 PM

6. sounds good.

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Response to gcomeau (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:34 PM

9. I Should Put You On Internet Speed Dial. You Are My Numbers Go To Man.

.

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Response to TexasCPA (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:36 PM

10. I have my doubts about the legitimacy of any tracking poll

that shifts that much that quickly. jmo

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Response to woolldog (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:38 PM

11. They Probably Looked At What Other Trackers Are Doing And "Adjusted" Their Model

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 03:06 PM

13. something fishy definitely going on....nt

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Response to woolldog (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 03:36 PM

14. I think it's what gcomeau said above

A post debate day dropped a big number for Romney off. Reverse bounce!

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