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Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:23 AM

More From Nate Silver Tonight

Via something called "twitter"

How much difference did the Pew poll make? We had Romney win % rising to 24.4% from 21.6% today. Without Pew, he'd have made no gain at all.


So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it


I wonder if all of the people here that had heart attacks over Romney's today feel silly now?

19 replies, 2557 views

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply More From Nate Silver Tonight (Original post)
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 OP
flamingdem Oct 2012 #1
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #3
Haywood Brothers Oct 2012 #19
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #4
TroyD Oct 2012 #15
Iliyah Oct 2012 #18
iemitsu Oct 2012 #2
doc03 Oct 2012 #5
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #6
doc03 Oct 2012 #8
TroyD Oct 2012 #14
Zen Democrat Oct 2012 #9
doc03 Oct 2012 #10
patrice Oct 2012 #7
MFM008 Oct 2012 #11
Cha Oct 2012 #12
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
zentrum Oct 2012 #16
Tcbys Oct 2012 #17

Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:25 AM

1. no gain at all

let's just go with that!

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:31 AM

3. Indeed

So much drama over one poll. A poll that was likely an outlier.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:24 AM

19. That's for sure

Sometimes you get these flukey jumps -- Silver's analysis, thank goodness, is even-handed. His model works; I take comfort in his unaltered overall prediction for Obama.

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:31 AM

4. But he DID have Pew, like it or not...

I'm really curious as to what we'll see at 538 tomorrow night, what with the Romney-in-lead PPP poll coming out, along with the shift to an LV model in Gallup tracking virtually guaranteeing that Obama's lead will be slashed if not entirely wiped-out. Will the transitory nature of those two be noted, or will they simply be considered valid data points?

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:28 AM

15. 'Romney-in-lead PPP poll coming out'

Romney will be in the lead in PPP?

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:39 AM

18. What is the different between LV and RV?

Ya'think RV is the better.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:30 AM

2. i was pretty surprised to see the dramatic change

in the polls, during the time i fixed and ate dinner.
i left the computer and obama was up 5 points. i returned and romney was up 12.
my wife was upset by the news but i was unwilling to accept such a swing.
i'm glad to see this interpretation of pew's numbers.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:33 AM

5. Does Nate Silver have any record in previous elections? n/t

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Response to doc03 (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:35 AM

6. Extremely accurate

In the 2008 primaries, 2008 general election (president, house, senate, and governor), 2010 elections, and the 2012 republican primaries. He is extremely good at statistical analysis.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:39 AM

8. For what it is worth Intrade has Obama at 63.6% n/t

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:27 AM

14. I think Nate was less successful in 2010 than in 2008, yes? n/t

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Response to doc03 (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:39 AM

9. Yes. The most sterling track record in his premier year of 2008

He predicted every state correctly, with the exception of Indiana (1% win for Obama). He predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races. He's gone from Daily Kos to the NY Times.

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Response to Zen Democrat (Reply #9)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:41 AM

10. That is encouraging news n/t

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:36 AM

7. They don't feel silly, because the truth doesn't matter as much as political base building and

ideologies do to some people on "the Left" and on the Reich.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:01 AM

11. thanks

im cutting the rope around my neck.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:11 AM

12. From what I've gathered the Pew Poll was found to be Skewed..

Well, let's look in Pew's documentation (linked above), particularly in a section entitled, "Patters of Voter Support, September-October."

Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.

Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.

Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).

<...>

In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1496439

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:22 AM

13. Why should anyone feel silly, OP?

There is a lot at stake here, and people have the right to be nervous about the possibility of a pathological liar and sociopath becoming President.

Of course we shouldn't run screaming through the streets at the fact that Obama's numbers have come down, but neither should we laugh it off.

The next month needs to be mistake-free and a good one for Obama.

We don't want that vile individual on the other side making any more progress.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #13)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:30 AM

16. Well said...

I wasn't able to sleep the night of the debate. There's way too much at stake.

We need a mistake-free month now.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:39 AM

17. We are still doomed...... :'(

 

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