Which Gallup number/tracking poll is the most recent?

[TroyD]

RCP won't include the +5 Gallup poll in its average - only the Tie 47/47 one.

RCP says: "*Gallup released two tracking poll results on October 8. The more recent results (reflecting post-debate interviews)
are included in the RCP National Average."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[WI_DEM]

1. Is the +5 over 7 days and the tie the three days following the debate?

[woolldog]

3. yes, but

the 3 days don't include Sunday. And Obama must've polled very well on Sunday for his lead to move back up to 50-45 in the 7 day average.

[WI_DEM]

9. yes, thanks.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. The tie one is just an isolated sample from their 7 day average...

It stopped polling on the sixth, so, Saturday. I don't know why RCP is showing that one ... considering Gallup's seven-day average includes samples from Sunday.

[TroyD]

4. RCP says the 47/47 poll is for Oct 4-6

But on the main page of Gallup the Obama (+5) poll is listed.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

And it appears to be Oct 1-7

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

[budkin]

5. 7 day ending at +5

Obama had a huge Sunday after being tied for 3 straight days

[woolldog]

6. Also pay attention to the job approval numbers in Gallup.

I'm a little depressed about the PEW poll, but taking solace in the Gallup job approval ratings.

The spread was as high as +12 and narrowed to +2 or so after the debate. It's now back up to +7 and Obama is above 50%. It's a 3 day rolling average so it's a very good sign that there's a floor underneath those debate numbers and he should be working himself back into the lead, imo. And polls subsequent to Pew should be reflecting that.

He's also in a strong position with the electoral college, with a lot more flexibility in getting to 270 than Romney.

[TroyD]

7. But RCP refuses to put it in its average

It is incorrectly stating that the Oct 4-6 poll is the most recent.

And as a result, Obama's national lead is down to 0.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Even though the Oct 1-7 poll is listed by Gallup here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

[woolldog]

8. Does it really matter?

Either Obama's numbers improve or they don't. What the RCP average is today or tmmrw doesn't matter.

[TroyD]

10. Your basic point is certainly correct : )

As long as Obama goes back up, it doesn't matter whether RCP wants to admit it or not, BUT . . .

Polling averages can affect the national narrative. And Obama has held onto a lead in RCP all this time. That lead is being kept down by manipulation and could harm morale if Romney overtakes us in the RCP average.