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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:40 PM

Nate Silver's Response to the Polls Today

No major analysis yet but we do have a twitter post from a few minutes ago

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people

34 replies, 4920 views

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Arrow 34 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver's Response to the Polls Today (Original post)
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 OP
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #3
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #5
TroyD Oct 2012 #12
former9thward Oct 2012 #16
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #18
former9thward Oct 2012 #22
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #27
former9thward Oct 2012 #30
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #33
TroyD Oct 2012 #20
former9thward Oct 2012 #25
SoFlaJet Oct 2012 #2
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #4
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #7
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #15
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #28
frazzled Oct 2012 #6
southernyankeebelle Oct 2012 #8
AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #29
southernyankeebelle Oct 2012 #34
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #9
TroyD Oct 2012 #10
budkin Oct 2012 #11
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #14
TroyD Oct 2012 #19
modrepub Oct 2012 #23
obxhead Oct 2012 #17
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #21
TroyD Oct 2012 #24
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #26
MADem Oct 2012 #31
WCGreen Oct 2012 #32

Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:45 PM

1. That is what i say. Remember the averages of polls scewed because they are...

... counting the two gallup numbers in RCP. Plus you got this new pew poll so things are not like they were a week ago.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:51 PM

3. RCP isn't including the 7-day tracker in their average right now.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:57 PM

5. they are such scum. It figures that they wouldn't

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:59 PM

12. This is the first time I've seen RCP really fix the numbers though

Yes they may have leaned right in the past, but I've never seen them be as deliberately dishonest as they have been over the past few days since the debate.

I guess this is their one opportunity to give Romney a national lead and the stakes are at an all-time high.

They naturally list the PEW poll showing Romney ahead before the polls showing Obama ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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Response to TroyD (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:51 PM

16. They always list the latest poll on top.

Not everything in life is a conspiracy.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:57 PM

18. "Not everything in life is a conspiracy."

Who paid you to say that?

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:30 PM

22. Your next door neighbor.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:39 PM

27. So that's what he did with $200 I loaned him!!!!

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:00 PM

30. I only got $100.

Don't know where the other 100 is.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:39 PM

33. Probably donated it to Romney!!!!!

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Response to former9thward (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:19 PM

20. Actually, I've been following RCP for months

And they always list Gallup & Rasmussen first.

They've been deliberately putting pro-Romney polls on top this week - that's why the Pew poll is there.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:37 PM

25. Untrue.

Normally the Gallup and Rasmussen are listed first because by definition they are the latest polls since they are daily tracking. But when another poll is released they put it on top.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:48 PM

2. And Nate Silver

Knows his shit-I trust him more than any poll I have seen out there and he has Obama at a 78.4% chance of winning and Romney at 20...who do YOU believe?

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:57 PM

4. From 87% win chance to 78% in five days

Let's see 28 days until the election, can Obama hold on or is the tide turning too strongly to fight back?

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:13 PM

7. In other words from certainty to near certainty. Just chill everyone.

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Response to RBInMaine (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:41 PM

15. it sounds like that number is bottoming out

Obama may only be at 70%-75% by election day but that that is enough. Better than being in romneys position. Think about how all of you would feel if obama was at 20% right now

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:51 PM

28. Already down to 75.1% this afternoon...

...but I'll be satisfied if he's at 60% or higher by 11/6.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:07 PM

6. Maybe it's time to just sit back and ...

savor the natural mellowing agents of ...



for the good years

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:24 PM

8. Polls really mean nothing in the end. We have to get the vote out. Simple and Plain.

 

This gap that Todd keeps talking about isn't believable to me. We see people going to see Obama all over the states. That says something to me. Todd really leans right and carries water for them.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:56 PM

29. Yep. Just look at the $181 million he raised last month.

Disillusionment? Yeah right. Chuck Todd is full of crap. He can go spew his shit somewhere else(no pun intended).

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:03 PM

34. I agree with you. Todd is an ass. We all have to show up at the polls and make them

 

eat their words. It is that simple. We all need to keep our eye on Nov 6. everything else is noise.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:33 PM

9. Wait a minute. Before I went out for errands we were 50-45.

How did Obama become an underdog at 4 PM? What did I miss?

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:40 PM

10. Nate can be annoying sometimes

Is he being sarcastic?

What is he saying?

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:58 PM

11. His newest article is up

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Response to budkin (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:01 PM

13. So Obama has dropped to 75%

But Nate says that after the Romney bounce and Obama recovery we may see a return to a 2-point Obama national lead:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/after-conventions-follow-the-bouncing-poll-numbers/

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Response to TroyD (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:34 PM

14. A win is a win

I don't care if Obama wins by 2 electoral votes or 500. As long as he gets 4 more years, I am happy

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:18 PM

19. That's the most important thing of course

But we want a comfortable win - not a bare win.

Obama has enough trouble being viewed as a legitimate President.

If he doesn't win comfortably he'll be told he didn't win much of a mandate.

We were on track to win 300+ EV and 51% of the vote in November, and I want it to stay that way.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:31 PM

23. Obama will never have a mandate

If the first election didn't constitute a mandate I don't know what will. Obama's not going to win by as much as he did last time given the circumstances. The repubs are motivated just by him being in the white house. I try to keep a level head by remembering this is largely a popularity contest. The election of the POTUS has never been not exercise in choosing the best person for the job (someone like Tsongas would be my choice but like I said this is a popularity contest).

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:54 PM

17. Polls are used for one purpose

creating a story the pundits can discuss.

They're pointless.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:26 PM

21. It wasn't that long ago when the big doners were walking out on Mitt.

So, of course there's going to be a panic to get the horse race going again.

What Romney supporters don't get is this just pushes the ground game in the swing states for Obama even harder.

BTW: What ever happened to Ron Paul supporters? I knew of several that believed the choice was either him or the end of America.

Oh,...and then there's this little gem:

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:33 PM

24. 'What Romney supporters don't get is this just pushes the ground game in the swing states for Obama'

How come?

Explain please.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #24)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:38 PM

26. People see Romney get a bump and the Obama People double their efforts.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:04 PM

31. The corporate big dogs really NEED a horse race. All that fundraising money, and the ad buys are

plainly not meeting expectations...!

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Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:13 PM

32. The national polls are skewed because of the almost even breakdown

between the camps now.

Romney has managed to solidify and strengthen his base after the debate. And that is going to be measured in.

It's the states that count.

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