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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:35 PM

 

"Rasmussen Throws Cold Water on Romney's Post-Debate Bounce" (The New Republic)

by Nate Cohn:

While it's still too early to judge the size of Romney's post-debate bounce, some of the worst news for Mitt is coming from an unlikely source: the traditionally-GOP leaning Rasmussen Reports.

Although Rasmussen initially lurched in Romney's direction, Rasmussen's national tracking poll now shows a tied race. Similarly, their state polls in Iowa and Colorado show Obama actually making gains since their pre-debate polls, giving Romney an average post-debate gain of just .2 points within Rasmussen polls—and moving the pollster-wide average of a post-debate shift to a slim Romney+2.8



And the evidence of even .2 points worth of movement is relatively weak. Obama's post-DNC lead averaged just .7 points in Rasmussen's national tracker, suggesting few, if any gains. the movement in Rasmussen's state polls looks more like regression to the mean than evidence of genuine movement. Notice that Romney made gains in Florida and Virginia, two states where Rasmussen's prior polling leaned less toward Romney than the average, but Romney lost ground in Colorado and Iowa, two states where Romney's prior polling was a little too good to be true.

More: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108305/rasmussen-points-toward-smaller-bounce

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Reply "Rasmussen Throws Cold Water on Romney's Post-Debate Bounce" (The New Republic) (Original post)
Blue Yorker Oct 2012 OP
MADem Oct 2012 #1
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #2
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #3

Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:40 PM

1. Gallup wasn't giving him Bushco-style love, either.

rMoney is an unlikeable dickhead. He looked like a manic, angry tweaker in that debate.

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Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:35 PM

2. This article's methodology...

...of calculating an average of national and state polls mixed together is pretty weird, IMHO -- essentially meaning that a national tracker and the Gravis CO poll are equal in weight. Getting the wrong Gallup numbers doesn't help, either.

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Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:48 PM

3. Romney's bounce is over

The polls we get back to pre-debate levels soon. Obama got a reset with the good jobs report.

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