Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:35 PM
Blue Yorker (436 posts)
"Rasmussen Throws Cold Water on Romney's Post-Debate Bounce" (The New Republic)
by Nate Cohn:
While it's still too early to judge the size of Romney's post-debate bounce, some of the worst news for Mitt is coming from an unlikely source: the traditionally-GOP leaning Rasmussen Reports.
Although Rasmussen initially lurched in Romney's direction, Rasmussen's national tracking poll now shows a tied race. Similarly, their state polls in Iowa and Colorado show Obama actually making gains since their pre-debate polls, giving Romney an average post-debate gain of just .2 points within Rasmussen polls—and moving the pollster-wide average of a post-debate shift to a slim Romney+2.8
And the evidence of even .2 points worth of movement is relatively weak. Obama's post-DNC lead averaged just .7 points in Rasmussen's national tracker, suggesting few, if any gains. the movement in Rasmussen's state polls looks more like regression to the mean than evidence of genuine movement. Notice that Romney made gains in Florida and Virginia, two states where Rasmussen's prior polling leaned less toward Romney than the average, but Romney lost ground in Colorado and Iowa, two states where Romney's prior polling was a little too good to be true.
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"Rasmussen Throws Cold Water on Romney's Post-Debate Bounce" (The New Republic) (Original post)
|Blue Yorker||Oct 2012||OP|
|regnaD kciN||Oct 2012||#2|
Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:35 PM
regnaD kciN (18,066 posts)
2. This article's methodology...
...of calculating an average of national and state polls mixed together is pretty weird, IMHO -- essentially meaning that a national tracker and the Gravis CO poll are equal in weight. Getting the wrong Gallup numbers doesn't help, either.