Gallup: 7-day rolling Presidential Election poll: Obama 50%, Romney 45%; Obama Approval 51%, +3

[flpoljunkie]

GALLUP DAILY

Oct 5-7, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change
Obama Approval 51% +3
Obama Disapproval 44% -2

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Obama 50% +1
Romney 45% -1
7-day rolling average

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[livetohike]

1. Goodbye to Romney's "debate bump" n/t

[scheming daemons]

2. First poll that included the Unemployment report?

[flpoljunkie]

4. Yes, since Friday. It is a 7-day rolling poll.

[VirginiaTarheel]

3. This means Sunday's polling was great for O

Since Obama was up by only three yesterday in Gallup. Rasmussen reflects the same trend.

[bigdarryl]

5. I'm intersted to see what Nate Silver says about this

[flamingdem]

6. nice nt

[thevoiceofreason]

7. But, but, but

Heh!

Don't Mess with Big Bird!

[budkin]

8. Have we ever had such polar opposite polling news in one day?

The lies and the jobs numbers knocked Romney back to earth.

[Doctor Jack]

9. Hahahahaha....ahahahahahahahahha

Bwahahahahahahahaha!

[hrmjustin]

10. What was this tied thing on RCP this morning?

[TroyD]

11. RCP quickly put the Gallup 47-47 number on their website this morning

It was a number which Gallup was seeing in their sample in the days after the Romney debate bump.

But it was not today's official Monday Gallup Tracking number. That was released at 1:00 PM.

[caraher]

20. I was at the dentist and Headline News was plugging 47-47

They portrayed the 50-45 as pre-debate numbers and 47-47 as newer results.

So that's what the masses are being spoon fed by the media... (I also saw a bunch of ads about how our buddies at Exxon/Mobil are paving the way for a clean energy future...)

[Robbins]

12. What's going on

The job's report Is starting to show up.This Is first poll to show post jobs report.

The job's report trumps the debate bumb.Now It's up to Biden to continue the good news on Thursday.

[cleduc]

13. I'm a little confused. For clarity

This is the top story on the LHS:
Romney Narrows Vote Gap After Historic Debate Win
By record-high margin, debate watchers say Romney did better
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx


So is what we're seeing with the tracking poll:

ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Oct 1-7, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change
TRIAL HEAT CHANGE
Obama 50%+1
Romney 45%-1

a one day bounce back for Obama?

The RAND poll seems to back them up with Obama close to +4
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#election-forecast
(both results seem to land within the margin for error)

I guess some of what we're seeing are the improved jobs numbers

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Gallup isolated three days of its seven-day polling to show that Romney had a bounce...

It was not their official poll ... just results from their Oct. 4-6 sample.

In their official poll, the one that's a seven day rolling average, Obama now leads by 5, up by 3 from yesterday. So, it's safe to assume because Obama saw a two-point improvement that he's had stronger polling than Romney the last couple days ... showing the Romney bounce has disappeared.

[jenmito]

14. K&R! n/t

[EnviroBat]

15. I hope Rush is having a stroke.

I'd love to see something terrible happen to that piece of maggot shit.

[tarheelsunc]

16. This shows me that most people have completely forgotten the debate... except for Big Bird.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. And DU ... I see a lot of posts about it here.

[TexasCPA]

17. Obama must of had a huge Sunday

He polled better this Sunday than last Sunday or the 7 day tracker would not have gone up.

[VirginiaTarheel]

18. The great thing is that Sunday's big O numbers

Will be part of Gallup's numbers for the next seven data, or until three weeks before the Election.

[TexasCPA]

19. I wonder if Gallup weights the current day heaviest

1. We know there is 3 days in the 7 that were dead even (Thurs - Sat)

2. They dropped off last Sunday. His average polling lead Sun - Wed was 5 points.

3. Assuming a 5 point day was dropped then Obama would have to be up 20 points or so on Sunday. That does not make any sense of course.
5+5+5+0+0+0+20=35/7 = 5

4. Of course rounding could mean a lot. Up to 1 point (49.5 to 46.4).

The only way I can see Obama gaining 2 points would be if they weight current data heavier than older data. There is no way that Obama polled 20 points higher than Romney on Sunday. Americans are not that smart to dump Romney.

[flpoljunkie]

21. The 47-47 Gallup tie is based on these three days--October 4-6th.

Gallup Tracking* 10/4 - 10/6 1387 RV 3.0 47 47 Tie

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[flpoljunkie]

22. Obama's approval bump, a 5 point swing, is based on three days--October 5-7, after jobs report.

[OhioworkingDem]

23. This is how it could have happened...

Sept 30 was R+5,Oct 1 was O+10, Oct.2 was O+10, Oct3 was O+5, Oct4 was R+5, Oct 5 was tied, October 6 was O+5, and Oct 7 was O+10

[VirginiaTarheel]

24. Good job

Crunching the numbers

[Haywood Brothers]

25. What'll the Birthers, Jobbers, Truthers Say?

I can hear it now from Coulter, Malkin, Hannity, et. al. -- Gallup is in the tank for Obama!

[livetohike]

26. Welcome to DU!

[flpoljunkie]

29. Indeed! Welcome to DU!

[cilla4progress]

30. muddle

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/08/gallup-poll-obama_n_1948705.html

[bushisanidiot]

31. Sounds good to me!

.

[IDoMath]

32. Obama vs gravity

What's your opinion of this analysis of Obama's polling? I like the metaphor that his poll numbers must eventually succumb to "gravity" and needs to be boosted occasionally.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/09/can_obamas_lead_resist_the_forces_of_gravity_115721-2.html

[thevoiceofreason]

33. RCP, aka Teve Torbes, doesn't do analysis.

Like Gravis Marketing, it is of questionable validity and veracity.