The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.
No one would have imagined six months ago that Baldwin would have a bigger lead in Wisconsin than Barack Obama. But Thompson has proven to be quite a weak candidate. Only 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Those numbers are quite a bit worse than Mitt Romney's 49/48 spread in the state.
Wisconsin voters only say they want a Democratic controlled Senate by a 46/45 margin, suggesting that Thompson might be running a couple points worse than an average Republican candidate would be.
Baldwin leads mostly thanks to a 52/40 advantage with independent voters. She's up big with women (50/43) while managing to run about even with men, trailing only 48-47. She's running even with white voters at 47% and leads with non-whites 65-30.