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Harstad Strategic Research: Warren (+6) in MA Senate race
This is a Democratic pollster, but as they point out, Warren had previously been down in their poll over the Summer, so it will be hard for Republicans to accuse them of inflating the numbers for her, and it's within 1 point of yesterday's MA poll showing Warren (+5).
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October 8, 2012
Elizabeth Warrens Opens Up Significant Lead in Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren has opened up a significant lead in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to our recent survey. Fully 50% of voters support Elizabeth Warren versus 44% for incumbent Scott Brown – the first time either candidate has reached the 50% threshold in our polling this year.
In early August, our survey had Elizabeth Warren narrowly trailing by 44% to 47% for Brown. This new survey and recent public polls clearly confirm an unmistakable trend in Warren’s favor.
Another intriguing result suggests that Warren has a higher vote ceiling than Brown. Besides the 50% now supporting her, an additional 6% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Warren – for a total prospective vote of 56%. In the case of Brown, besides his 44% vote, an additional 4% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Brown – for a total prospective vote of 48%.
Further underscoring the momentum in Warren’s favor are a pair of survey questions that are key leading indicators. When asked if they are more or less likely to vote for Warren based on what they have seen or heard in the past few weeks, a 47% plurality of voters say they are more likely to support Warren versus 42% less likely – a net differential of +5% in her favor.
Elizabeth Warrens Opens Up Significant Lead in Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren has opened up a significant lead in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to our recent survey. Fully 50% of voters support Elizabeth Warren versus 44% for incumbent Scott Brown – the first time either candidate has reached the 50% threshold in our polling this year.
In early August, our survey had Elizabeth Warren narrowly trailing by 44% to 47% for Brown. This new survey and recent public polls clearly confirm an unmistakable trend in Warren’s favor.
Another intriguing result suggests that Warren has a higher vote ceiling than Brown. Besides the 50% now supporting her, an additional 6% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Warren – for a total prospective vote of 56%. In the case of Brown, besides his 44% vote, an additional 4% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Brown – for a total prospective vote of 48%.
Further underscoring the momentum in Warren’s favor are a pair of survey questions that are key leading indicators. When asked if they are more or less likely to vote for Warren based on what they have seen or heard in the past few weeks, a 47% plurality of voters say they are more likely to support Warren versus 42% less likely – a net differential of +5% in her favor.
More:
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/mass-early-oct_survey_harstad_reserarch.html
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