OH, FL, CO, NC, VA. Obama needs only one to win. Romney needs all five.

[morningfog]

These five states are really the only states in play and the states that will decide the election.

Outside of these five battleground states, Obama has a solid 263 EVs to Romney's 191.

CO (9), VA (13), NC (15), OH (18), and FL (29) are where it's at.

Good news is Obama needs to only win one of those states. Any one will tip his count beyond 270. Romney would have to run the board to reach 270.

NC and FL are true toss-ups. The leads have shifted back and forth and it is too close to call, with NC leaning towards Romney.

VA is too close, but leans toward Obama.

CO and OH, though look good for Obama. Romney has not yet lead in OH when the polls are averaged. The same is true of CO. Romney may get a bump from the debate, but it will be slight and short-lived.

[Voice for Peace]

1. that's a wonderful OP headline for a sunny Sunday noon

[Blue Yorker]

2. You're assuming that Obama wins WI and Iowa

Right?

[morningfog]

6. Yep. I feel confident in that assumption.

Romney has never lead in either. I don't see either of those as a threat at all.

[Blue Yorker]

11. I'd put it this way

Has Obama led Iowa at any time when Romney was ahead in the four states you gave to Romney? I don't thing that scenario has occurred yet.

If the scenario in the OP occurs, then something would have happened....that caused people in four very important states to prefer Romney.

Would it be reasonable to expect that Iowa and Wisconsin would freeze in time instead of being affected by whatevr event caused Romney to take the lead in 4 very important states?

[morningfog]

12. Just to clarify, I am not giving any of the 5 in the OP to Romney.

Romney has lead in NC, FL and VA.

I don't really see 4 of the 5 going to Romney with Obama relying on just one. What I think is closer to what will happen is that Romney picks off one, two or all three of NC, FL and VA, but still loses.

Iowa could tighten, but I can't see IA and WI flipping to ROmney.

[Blue Yorker]

17. Romney does not lead FL and VA

In RCP average, they're tied in FL and Obama has a 0.4% in VA.

Besides, Romney is only that close in those states because at least one post-debate poll is included in the average. Iowa has zero post-debate polls.

[Stargleamer]

7. Yes, Morningfog is assuming that

and given that Obama is up just by 2 in Wisconsin, morningfog is assuming that Obama can still hold on there and scrape by.

As for Iowa, I think Morningfog is assuming that, given that many ballots are already in (110,000?) due to early voting, Obama can still hang on and win there as well.

Of course, I hope Morningfog is correct, but given Obama's fiasco on Wednesday, I am quite uncertain.

[morningfog]

9. Obama is up by more than 2 in WI.

I like to look at the polling averages, where Obama is up 6.6 in WI. One poll in any state is not reliable.

[Blue Yorker]

13. Sometimes I prefer one poll over the polling average

Because averaging a bunch of polls before the debate fiasco, combine with just one after the debate, is likely to paint a too-rosy a picture in favor of Obama. I would put my money on PPP's post-debate poll alone right now over the average.

[morningfog]

14. It wasn't a fiasco. We'll see mid week how big the bounce was.

I suspect ROmney's bounce will be quickly neutralized by the jobs numbers and fact checking that followed.

Come Wednesday, I think the polls will again reflect the true nature of the race.

[Coyotl]

3. Only an endosement from Big Bird can save Romney now.

[Dawgs]

4. Agree slightly. I would replace Iowa with Ohio as one of your five.

Right now, I think Ohio is more of a lock than Iowa.

[Blue Yorker]

5. The scenario in the OP is false

It's not true that Obama only needs one of those 5 states, because if Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa, plus the states the OP gave to Romney, Romney wins, even if Obama wins Colorado.

[morningfog]

8. Romney won't win WI or IA.

Hell, even if you give those to ROmney, which you seem to want to do, Romney still needs OH, FL, NC and VA.

Your scenario would be even harder for Romney to overcome. He would have to win 6 states, with 3 being very very difficult and 3 being very close, nearing impossible.

[K Gardner]

16. Oh lord, here you are again, all over a GOOD OP with BAD NEWS..

enough already. Give it a rest. Your doom and gloom is getting old and fairly trollish.

[Blue Yorker]

18. You ignore the good-news post I post

You ignore the posts in which I concur with good news. Because in order to pretend I'm "trollish" you have to disappear those posts. Allow me to show you how you cherry-pick.

Good news I posted recently:

Romney lead in Ohio should be dismissed because pollster is a birther: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251124734

Rasmussen giving Romney a 2% lead might be BS because he's been an outlier before:
http://election.democraticunderground.com/1251124653

Good news from Reuters: Romney's momentum stalled: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123892

Now I want you to promise that you will not pretend that some of my post don't exist. Promise?

[Jennicut]

20. I don't think Romney will not win Wisconsin.

The polling in the last day there for PPP (Saturday) was going back down for Romney. He would have had to increase that to have a lead in Wisconsin. PPP is a good poller, despite being a robo poll. They do 4 day polling. I believe them when they say Romney's bounce stalled the last day there in VA and WI. This showed up in Gallup today, Rasmussen today and Reuters the other day.

[morningfog]

10. Could be. That would be even better.

[helpisontheway]

15. I will not feel better until post debate

Polls show Obama holding his strong lead in Ohio. I hope the people in Ohio were not fooled by Romney.

[courseofhistory]

19. I'm in Colorado

My son and I are each voting for Obama early voting Oct 22.

[Panasonic]

21. Colorado is Obama Country.

Rmoney is not welcome here.

So Rmoney better bugger off and try to save Alabama as i hear it's turning blue...

and Nathan Deal's pissed because his beloved Georgia is starting turn pruple....

Now get busy and go away.