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Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:22 PM

Reuters/Ipsos poll: Obama 47, Romney 45

Romney "surge" has stalled. Obama was up by same margin Friday.

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Reply Reuters/Ipsos poll: Obama 47, Romney 45 (Original post)
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 OP
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #1
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #11
Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #3
jenmito Oct 2012 #4
Jennicut Oct 2012 #5
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #6
jenmito Oct 2012 #13
RichGirl Oct 2012 #7
Zalatix Oct 2012 #8
barnabas63 Oct 2012 #9
union_maid Oct 2012 #10
NYC Liberal Oct 2012 #12

Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:26 PM

1. Good news...

Holding on to any of the good news so I don't start stressing about the debate performance again.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:34 PM

2. Very good news...

As I've written below, data from Friday (Gallup and Rasmussen) and Thursday-Friday (Ipsos) polling had suggested a 12-point-or-more Romney gain; if this had continued into Friday-Saturday, we should have seen Romney ahead by a point or so in today's release. Instead, it would appear that today's numbers reverted back to where they were shortly before the debate. It's only one data-point in one poll, but it's the first suggestion that the "Romney surge" might turn out to be merely a one- or two-day phenomenon, rather than a lasting trend. Polls in the next few days will tell more of the story.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 06:00 PM

11. At First I Didn't Understand Your Mathematical Argument But Now I Do

Is it possible to deconstruct a poll with that amount of specificity?

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:34 PM

3. This is even better because

the national polls are skewed toward Romney because of very strong support in the red states.. this means that Obama has strong support in the swing states and that is where the election will be decided...

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:38 PM

4. Link?

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Response to jenmito (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:07 PM

5. Right here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/06/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121006

Good findings in this poll for Obama:

Just a month before the November 6 election, the Democratic president is ahead of his Republican challenger on character attributes that can win over undecided voters who have not been swayed on policy points.

"We haven't seen additional gains from Romney. This suggests to me that this is more of a bounce than a permanent shift," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

The poll did not show Obama backers shifting to Romney. Rather, Romney's small gains on a few of the issues came from people who had been undecided.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:12 PM

6. I can't access internals right now on phone

But I hear the internals are great for Obama in swing states

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 08:56 PM

13. Thanks, other Jen!

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:18 PM

7. Looks like...

Big Bird sat on Romneys bump!

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:22 PM

8. The Cheat Sheet caught up with him!

 

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:25 PM

9. ....hope it's downhill from here for Willard. nt

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:33 PM

10. Did you read this article on the poll?

Really, really nice stuff. It's Yahoo, but very cheery stuff.

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 06:01 PM

12. And it will reverse in the polls next week after the jobs news.

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