More bad news: Obama +4 (October 2); Romney +1 (October 4): Clarus Research Group

[Blue Yorker]

As I type this the two most recent polls posted in Huffington Post's "Pollster" section are these:

National - 2012 President - Obama 46%, Romney 47% (Clarus Research Group 10/4)
National - 2012 President - Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Clarus Research Group 10/2)

I will post good-news polls if there are any. Hopefully Gallup at 1pm.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/clarus-15562

[grasswire]

1. enjoying this, are ye? nt

[CJCRANE]

14. Better Believe It!

[MjolnirTime]

22. I knew I smelled a certain foul odor.

[progree]

2. Pls Post them all. I don't just want to see the good news polls. I want to see them all. Thank u.

[woolldog]

34. +1

I don't get the posters who complain about those posting poll results that aren't great. Would they prefer to live in a bubble or with their head in the sand?

There are always people eager to be the first to post good news, so that will take care of itself. The bad news has to be posted too, at least if you want a realistic picture of what's going on. And if it's a flawed poll, then it can be debunked.

[progree]

44. Exactly - and I will add that we need to see the bad stuff too so as to be prepared for discussions

Some of us believe we should get out of our little DU safe haven and engage with persuadables and righties on mixed message boards and in person wherever. If we're only getting comforting feel-good news here, we are going to be ill-prepared and taken by surprise when we engage in discussions with people out in the wider world.

I don't get the posters who complain about those posting poll results that aren't great. Would they prefer to live in a bubble or with their head in the sand?

Uhh, if it was me, I think I would like the bubble better -- at least there's some oxygen in it, albeit for a short while. With sand, death comes too quickly (though come to think of it, that might be better after all). Maybe we should start a poll -- Bubble or Sand?

And if it's a flawed poll, then it can be debunked.

Absolutely.

I'm just wondering what a "safe poll" to post is, without a bunch of ankle-biters accusing one of being a troll. Is the safe margin Obama +3? Or is that too close. How about +5? Does that slowly shift with what's happening in the real world, or is it something that is fixed in concrete? As a "newbie" I don't know what is safe or offensive.

AND THAT IS ANOTHER THING THAT PISSES ME OFF ABOUT SOME OF THE THREAD NAZIS -- PEOPLE CRAPPING ON "NEWBIES". TRY BEING WELCOMING INSTEAD AND REALIZE THAT SOME PERSPECTIVES FROM OUTSIDE OF THE DU BUBBLE-VERSE IS A GOOD THING. AND THAT SOME PEOPLE HAVE A LIFE OUTSIDE OF DU.

[juajen]

50. Hmmm, who has a life outside of DU? Inquiring minds want to know.

[WI_DEM]

3. Clarus research? anyway, so what? this bounce will not last--nothing to get hysterical about.

[Kolesar]

5. Hair and beauty products, too ... eom

[Fgiriun]

4. How can there be such a huge difference?

Are people this easily mislead and manipulated? Obviously according to this poll Obama lost more support then the psychotic liar gained but still.

[truthN08]

8. This

Is a nation that keeps Honey Boo Boo on television and make celebrities out of these people. It's scary how much people are moved by "info-tainment". They don't care if its the truth they just want to be entertained. It's a damn shame.

[VirginiaTarheel]

12. Yes, that is why you take appearing before 70 million people very seriously

[woolldog]

35. Putting myself in the shoes of an undecided voter,

with no strong policy preferences, Obama simply looked incompetent up there against Romney. I hate to say it but he did. He didn't look like he understood the issues as well, and didn't seem to command the policy details. Romney was sharper.

Of course for most of us, who understand the policy issues inside and out, we knew Romney was lying. Obama knew Romney was lying, but he couldn't or wouldn't call him on it and explain his position forcefully. But most people don't know the ins and outs of policy. So it didn't appear Romney was lying. It appeared Obama was not confident and didn't know what he was talking about.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

6. OMG!

It's Death riding in on a black horse! Woe is me, for we are all doomed!

Just a FYI. It's not "IF" there are any good-news polls, but when.

[ProSense]

7. Single-day polling

There is one rather scant piece of evidence of a legitimate Romney "surge," and it comes from Clarus Research, the group run by former Campaigns and Elections publisher Ron Faucheux. They claimed in a write-up today to have done two single-day samples, one on Tuesday and one on Thursday. The Tuesday sample was Obama +4. The Thursday sample is Romney +1. Of course, there is some issues inherent in single-day samples. But this is just another data point to add to the pile.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/05/1140583/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Attack-of-the-Republican-Snap-Pollsters

This is about as useful as snap polling.

[writes3000]

13. But it's VERY useful for Republican TROLLS...

It's why the Republicans ordered these snap polls with skewed samples. So they can try to create a wave of momentum. The more suckers believe Romney is leading, the more the media will report it, etc.

Fortunately, Team Obama is far more skilled than their team.

So troll away, trolls. You're still going to lose. Big.

[elleng]

9. No matter. Its combination and analysis of ALL recent polls that shows something real:

Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021465235

Check his methodology. (Not difficult.)

[yellerpup]

27. Great link, elleng! n/t

[DemzRock]

10. Clarus? Never heard of them. n/t

[Proud Liberal Dem]

37. Me either

[graham4anything]

11. 7.8 is the only number I care about

most reputable poll firms don't operate on the weekend

and Rasmussen and his other anonymous sites (including one owned by a Richard Cheney aka Dick.) know this

unfortunately for Obama haters, the number most important is 7.8

and as previously announced, the head of electoral-vote.com is traveling and making only sparatic posts the next 10 to 14 days. (Bad time to travel imho, hope he can log on each day.)
but today, 10/6/12 he has
on the with rasmussen page 319 Obama 13 tied 206 mittens
without rasmussen page it says-332 Obama 15 tied 191 Mittens

and that includes all polls he normally includes on the rasmussen page(inc. Florida for Mitt)

[aquart]

28. sporadic.

[jenmito]

15. All that's missing from your threads is a red spinning alarm light and the words "Drudge Report". nt

[Blue Yorker]

18. Fine. I will now post good-news polls released today

Where's the link? I got this.

[jenmito]

19. You have no obligation to post every "bad news" poll you see. n/t

[Blue Yorker]

20. Trust me. If I only posted half of them, I'd still be accused...

of posting nothing but bad news. So I post them all. Good and bad.

[jenmito]

23. You post "bad news" polls all the time, and they're almost always Repub. or unheard-of pollsters. nt

[Blue Yorker]

26. you disappeared the heard-of pollsters and good-news polls I posted

I posted the Rand where Romney failed to have a post-debate bump
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251121376

Kaine beating Macaca big time: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251115090

I sought to make DU'ers feel good by dismissing insta-polls: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251120247

Before the debate debacle, I posted good news from Yougov: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251119527

But since you want to paint a false picture of me being a bad-news bear only, you disappear those threads.

The debate was bad news, and as long as bad-news poll continue,l will post them. If good-news polls show up, I will post them, even though they will be "invisible" to you.

[jenmito]

29. Wow. Thanks for the "even-handedness."

[Blue Yorker]

30. Let's go back. Why did you falsely state that I only post bad news polls?

You didn't address your selectivity.

[jenmito]

31. Show me where I said that. n/t

[Blue Yorker]

32. when you said I post bad news polls "all the time"

All the time is all the time. Some of the time is some of the time.

Good try.

[jenmito]

33. You DO post bad-news polls all the time. But you throw in good polls once in a while to

keep credibility IMO.

[woolldog]

38. sometimes the news IS bad

I took a lot of abuse during the debate for saying Obama was getting his ass kicked.

Guess what? He did get his ass kicked. And it's hurting him in the polls. It sucks but it is what it is.

A lot of people on here don't want to hear anything unless it makes them feel good. Sometimes the news isn't good and you just have to deal with it.

[jenmito]

40. As I wrote on the thread about Romney cheating in the debate,

"Rachel Maddow covered this and said it was a handkerchief which she showed him using. Not to mention-he lied confidently, changed his positions and avoided specifics easily, and sadly, Obama didn't call him on 99% of his lies. Obama also looked tired, nodding while Romney was lying and accusing him of things, and so Romney won the battle. But he'll lose the war once all of his lies are revealed."

So I know Obama did badly in the debate. I just see this poster posting so many negative polls, even BEFORE the debate.

[woolldog]

41. Ok

well

1. Just from what I've seen the guy posts good and bad polls.

2. But, let's say he only posts bad polls, what's the big deal? It's good for the forum. Like I said already, the good polls are going to get posted no matter what. Everyone rushes to post the good stuff. It's good for everyone if the bad stuff also gets posted. It gives a more realistic view of the race. And if the bad polls have flaws, then those can get pointed out in the thread. There's a tendency to cherry pick info and I think that's harmful. That's also what conservatives do. (think: unskewedpolls.com)

3. Why discourage people who post polls? There are only a few. I got accused of posting bad stuff, so guess what? I just stopped posting any polls, good and bad. I still get a lot of them sent to me, I just don't pass them on. You discourage posters like Blue Yorker and TroyD, who post polls regularly, and who whenever they happen to post a bad poll get attacked personally, then the forum is worse off as a result

I'm not singling you out. I see people attacking the people who post polls alot. I think it's good for the forum that those guys have thick skins.

[jenmito]

45. OK...

Well, I'm glad you're not singling me out.

[woolldog]

47. lol

[jenmito]

48. What the heck.

[bowens43]

52. stick your head in the sand if you want

But Obama was dowager in the debate. If this continues Romney will be president.

[NYC_SKP]

16. 590 likely voters. Meh.

"Clarus"? Never heard of them.

pffffffffftttttttt!

"P

[JoePhilly]

17. Mitt's still unable to get above 47%. Has not done so more than twice in 2 months.

[pepperbear]

21. both dates fell before the release of the jobs report.

I will worry a little more when the polls next week are sour.

[BelieveMe3]

24. remember

National polls will fluctuate, but the electoral college is what matters! Remember they are polling nationally -that includes red states that in no way will vote Obama.

[PSPS]

25. National poll = meaningless

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. That's Not Entirely Correct

The state polls and the national polls eventually have to converge or come reasonably close to converging.

That being said I will wait for the results that totally factor in the bad debate news and the good unemployment news.

[PSPS]

42. Yes, it is "entirely correct"

Such polls might be "interesting" to those who follow them, but they have no real meaning because that isn't how we elect presidents.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. So Candidate A Can Lose The Pop Vote By Several Percent And Still Win The Electoral College

When in history is that happened?


In fact Nate Silver at 538 has run over 25,000 simulations and estimated there is less than a three percent chance for either candidate to lose the pop vote and win the the EC Vote ,ergo:


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[oswaldactedalone]

39. If this keeps up

even Big Bird won't be able to save Obama.

[graham4anything]

49. 18 new polls last hour show the 7.8 is kicking in

I look to Monday and Tuesday for the 7.8 to be reflected in the polls

[krakfiend]

51. clarus?

Who the hell is clarus? Why do they matter?