On Election night when will WE know Obama has won?

[yellowcanine]

I am thinking when Florida gets called for Obama, because by that time Ohio and Virginia will also likely have been called for Obama. This could occur as soon as the West Coast polls close, which I think is 10 pm EST.

[Arkana]

1. I disagree. When Ohio/Florida/Virginia go--any of those three--it's over for Romney.

[Pab Sungenis]

5. Very likely.

The only scenario I can envision for a Romney victory would entail taking Ohio or Florida away from Obama. And even then it's going to require major inroads into blue territory.

Giving Romney all the McCain states plus Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Omaha would give him 266 electoral votes. Those plus Ohio or Florida would put him over the top. So if we hold Ohio and Florida, even if we severely underperform elsewhere, we're golden.

Based on the current most likely map, if we take Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina and move them into toss-up, Obama still has 266 electoral votes either safe or leaning his way. Romney would have to win all four of them to eke out a victory.

[Kber]

2. When North Carolina gets called for Obama

Not because NC is going to be so important based on EC votes, but because if Obama wins NC, he's going to hold every state he won in 2008. Might as well go to bed at that point.

But if you want to make doubly sure, wait until FL is called.

[Pab Sungenis]

4. Not every state.

Indiana is most likely going back to form and voting Republican this time around. 2008 was an anomaly.

But he'll hold all of the others if he wins NC. Especially if he wins it enough to be called shortly after the polls close.

[Kber]

13. True - I was a bit shocked Obama won Indiana in 2008

[Pab Sungenis]

3. If he wins North Carolina

that will be the sign. NC has been closer than Ohio, Florida, or Virginia, and if we win that state, then the other swing states will fall in line.

In 2008 I knew we'd won when Indiana was too close to call at 7 PM EST. Indiana and Kentucky are almost always the first states called and are safely Republican. That we'd kept Indiana too close to call (even more so than it later going blue) was the sign that the vote was overwhelming and the "swing states" would almost all go for Obama.

If we lose North Carolina but hold Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, then we've won. So then I guess Virginia would be the sign.

If we lose NC, VA, and OH, then buckle down because it's going to be a long night.

[yellowcanine]

7. Yes that would do it for me also but I am assuming he might not win NC.

Certainly Obama winning VA would make me feel pretty good but I want to see FL in the Obama column to be sure, though Ohio and VA probably cinches it.

[Third Doctor]

6. After I hear Ohio has gone for Obama I'll know it's over.

Romney would have a hard time making up the loss of those electoral votes. Plus no Repub has ever won without Ohio.

[tjdee]

8. Ohio. To make me feel more comfortable, either VA or FL.

VA gets called first so.

[Jennicut]

9. Ohio is very important.

Romney can win VA and FL but without Ohio he is done. Mittens can win CO and NV and NH on top of VA and FL and still lose. Obama has to hold onto Iowa with Ohio. Or Nevada with Ohio instead. That would make it 275 to 263.

[woolldog]

17. Romney can win without Ohio. Here's a reasonable scenario:

[sofa king]

10. January 20th.

On election night, 2000, I went to bed when Florida was called for Al Gore.

I never woke up from the nightmare I had that night. In that dream, I lost my job, my clients were exploited and robbed, my friends went off to war and killed until they were driven insane, my girlfriend left me to go live in a five-star hotel in Kuwait while making a quarter million a year reading spreadsheets, and I fell into poverty so deep I have never since emerged.

So I'm not going to call it over until President Obama is inaugurated.

[LongTomH]

14. +1000 My own memories of 2000 and 2004 are still fresh!

I expect the Pukes to keep trying dirty tricks, even after the election, especially if a few states are close enough for a recount.

[MichDem10]

11. If VA is called for President Obama - it will be over

I think the polls VA close at 7pm EST, so it could be fairly early. This, of course, assumes there is no huge change between now and Nov 6th.

[bamacrat]

12. If Virginia goes it will be over.

Because if VA is way more conservative that OH or FL. I do think PBO may lose FL, just because of the scare tactics... But he won't lose OH, especially if he gets VA. PBO can win without OH and FL. If he holds the states he got last time minus OH, FL and IN, he is still over 270. But I want this to be a referendum sized victory.

[woolldog]

15. If/when Florida is called for Obama. Here's why:

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

16. Know for sure?

When Willard sends his man-servant out to read his concession statement.

[MFM008]

18. they wont call soon

cant till after 8pm PST when the polls close here in WA (OR & CA) and they will be reluctant to call either FL, VA and OHIO unless its a landslide. You will see a LOT of 2 close to call or to early to call.

[jmowreader]

19. Wait till midnight east coast time

Guys, put Arizona into the toss-up column; it is full of retirees who will be gravely hurt by R 'n' R.

[davidpdx]

20. The answer is 8pm PST

California has the one of largest chunk of votes. Oregon and Washington will go for Obama. Nevada is an hour ahead of PST. Which is another 6. Right there is 80 EC. Plus last time it took them until just prior to that to finish for Ohio and Virginia. The bottom line is the west will put him over.