Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:20 PM

Cicada (184 posts)

So far Obama lead down 1 to 2 points post debate

Ipsos/Reuter interviews post debate cut 5 point lead to 3.
PPP calls in Wisconsin so far, 1 night calls - lead lower by 2. PPP Virginia - lead lower by 1.
See PPP tweets here: https://twitter.com/ppppolls

13 replies, 1079 views

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13 replies	Author	Time	Post
So far Obama lead down 1 to 2 points post debate (Original post)	Cicada	Oct 2012	OP
That was expected.	The Velveteen Ocelot	Oct 2012	#1
More reliable...	courseofhistory	Oct 2012	#2
Nate Silver gives PrezO 86% chance of winning.	elleng	Oct 2012	#3
Also from the link...	courseofhistory	Oct 2012	#4
word to the wise. New DUers should really refrain from finding the worst polls to post here...	progressivebydesign	Oct 2012	#5
My thinking is similar.....	FrenchieCat	Oct 2012	#7
quoting a poll is not "poll obsession" /nt	demwing	Oct 2012	#13
If Romney gains 1 or 2 - Obama wins 325+ electoral votes	Cicada	Oct 2012	#9
Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results	elleng	Oct 2012	#6
Romney still losing.	ncteechur	Oct 2012	#8
The odds are still that Romney will lose, yes	TroyD	Oct 2012	#11
His Lead In The Reuters Ipsos Poll Was Reduced From Seven Percent To Five Percent	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#10
Each percentage equals 1.3 million to 1.5 million votes.	hrmjustin	Oct 2012	#12

Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:22 PM

The Velveteen Ocelot (34,730 posts)

1. That was expected.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:22 PM

courseofhistory (801 posts)

2. More reliable...

After the debate, reflecting new polls and analysis, Nate Silver's mode at Five Thrity Eight gives Obama his highest rating up till today. =D>

86.4 Obama 13.6% Romney (chance of winning)

319 Obama 218.5 Romney (electoral college)

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

elleng (40,548 posts)

3. Nate Silver gives PrezO 86% chance of winning.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

courseofhistory (801 posts)

4. Also from the link...

PublicPolicyPolling‏@ppppolls

We do 4 day fields so no final numbers until Sunday but early indications that Romney may have gotten small, but hardly game changing bump

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

5. word to the wise. New DUers should really refrain from finding the worst polls to post here...

seems to be an affliction of the newly DUered. I can usually tell by the headline how many posts a person has.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:27 PM

FrenchieCat (67,336 posts)

7. My thinking is similar.....

Poll obsession whether the polls are good
or not is just not healthy, IMO. Gives the media,
and those contracted by them too much power.....
power that we are trying to claim back.

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:46 PM

demwing (10,980 posts)

13. quoting a poll is not "poll obsession" /nt

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:30 PM

Cicada (184 posts)

9. If Romney gains 1 or 2 - Obama wins 325+ electoral votes

Romney needs a big bounce from debates - not a small one.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:27 PM

elleng (40,548 posts)

6. Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021465235

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:29 PM

ncteechur (3,059 posts)

8. Romney still losing.

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Response to ncteechur (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:34 PM

TroyD (4,468 posts)

11. The odds are still that Romney will lose, yes

But this isn't all about Obama vs. Romney.

It's not good to let the national numbers drop, even by a point or two. There are Senate & House races on the line too, and if those are to be won, a strong national Presidential campaign is important.

Every point matters.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:31 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

10. His Lead In The Reuters Ipsos Poll Was Reduced From Seven Percent To Five Percent

The poll found that Obama's seven-point advantage over Romney had narrowed to a five-point lead, 48 percent to 43

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021471070

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:34 PM

hrmjustin (9,179 posts)

12. Each percentage equals 1.3 million to 1.5 million votes.

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