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Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:20 PM

So far Obama lead down 1 to 2 points post debate

Ipsos/Reuter interviews post debate cut 5 point lead to 3.
PPP calls in Wisconsin so far, 1 night calls - lead lower by 2. PPP Virginia - lead lower by 1.
See PPP tweets here: https://twitter.com/ppppolls

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Reply So far Obama lead down 1 to 2 points post debate (Original post)
Cicada Oct 2012 OP
The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 2012 #1
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #2
elleng Oct 2012 #3
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #4
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #5
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #7
demwing Oct 2012 #13
Cicada Oct 2012 #9
elleng Oct 2012 #6
ncteechur Oct 2012 #8
TroyD Oct 2012 #11
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #10
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #12

Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:22 PM

1. That was expected.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:22 PM

2. More reliable...

After the debate, reflecting new polls and analysis, Nate Silver's mode at Five Thrity Eight gives Obama his highest rating up till today. =D>

86.4 Obama 13.6% Romney (chance of winning)

319 Obama 218.5 Romney (electoral college)

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

3. Nate Silver gives PrezO 86% chance of winning.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

4. Also from the link...

PublicPolicyPolling‏@ppppolls

We do 4 day fields so no final numbers until Sunday but early indications that Romney may have gotten small, but hardly game changing bump

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:24 PM

5. word to the wise. New DUers should really refrain from finding the worst polls to post here...

seems to be an affliction of the newly DUered. I can usually tell by the headline how many posts a person has.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:27 PM

7. My thinking is similar.....

Poll obsession whether the polls are good
or not is just not healthy, IMO. Gives the media,
and those contracted by them too much power.....
power that we are trying to claim back.

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:46 PM

13. quoting a poll is not "poll obsession" /nt

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:30 PM

9. If Romney gains 1 or 2 - Obama wins 325+ electoral votes

Romney needs a big bounce from debates - not a small one.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:27 PM

6. Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:29 PM

8. Romney still losing.

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Response to ncteechur (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:34 PM

11. The odds are still that Romney will lose, yes

But this isn't all about Obama vs. Romney.

It's not good to let the national numbers drop, even by a point or two. There are Senate & House races on the line too, and if those are to be won, a strong national Presidential campaign is important.

Every point matters.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:31 PM

10. His Lead In The Reuters Ipsos Poll Was Reduced From Seven Percent To Five Percent

The poll found that Obama's seven-point advantage over Romney had narrowed to a five-point lead, 48 percent to 43


http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021471070

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:34 PM

12. Each percentage equals 1.3 million to 1.5 million votes.

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