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Thu Oct 4, 2012, 11:20 PM

Business Insider: Jobs Report tomorrow could be 8.2% Unemployment

Oct. 4, 2012

Some contradictory signals?

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SocGen economist Brian Jones is not excited for the release. In a note to clients this morning entitled Looking ahead to yet another lacklustre US jobs report, Jones says "Market participants probably will have to check their screens twice on Friday to make sure that they are in fact looking at the results of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) September survey."

In other words, Jones expects little change from last month – he's forecasting a 93K reading tomorrow, slightly down from the August number.

However, Jones thinks the headline unemployment rate will tick down:

Meanwhile, the civilian unemployment rate is projected to move one tick lower to 8.0% – the lowest reading since the beginning of 2009 – but the forecast dip once again likely will be attributable to jobless persons opting out of the labour force. Total hours worked at private establishments probably expanded marginally, but merely ended Q3 at the June level. With retail price increases expected to eclipse nominal earnings gains, we expect little fuel for consumer spending from the BLS’ report. Those hoping for labour-market fireworks ahead of the 6 November national elections will have to look elsewhere.

Credit Suisse economists agree, saying they expect a 95K reading tomorrow, but they think the headline unemployment rate will tick up:

The downshift in economic growth in the first half of this year fits with the lack of progress in lowering unemployment further in recent months. We expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 8.2% in September, staying in the 8.1%-8.3% range that has been in place since January.



Read more:

http://www.businessinsider.com/september-nfp-jobs-report-preview-2012-10

6 replies, 1154 views

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Reply Business Insider: Jobs Report tomorrow could be 8.2% Unemployment (Original post)
TroyD Oct 2012 OP
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #1
TroyD Oct 2012 #2
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #3
TroyD Oct 2012 #4
davidpdx Oct 2012 #6
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #5

Response to TroyD (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:21 AM

1. Not good...

...and a far cry from ADP's (overoptimistic-as-usual?) estimate of 162,000.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:23 AM

2. It's not expected to have a major effect on the election

And it will likely still be in the 8.1 - 8.3 % range, but I was hoping for something better after seeing the other numbers earlier today.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:23 AM

3. I don't think anyone actually knows what will happen

The predictions are always wildly off. I am just going to assume the worst case scenario (70,000) and hope that it isn't that low.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:59 AM

4. Gallup's number is 7.9 today

Some of us were hoping that would be the official number tomorrow.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 02:50 AM

6. I was talking to my wife about this earlier

She remembers last month I was going nuts jumping all over the place waiting for the job numbers to come out. It was late night here in Korea and I had CNN on and was looking all over the net too.

I told her I was hoping for 7.9 as well as that would be a huge boost for Obama in terms of the unemployment rate.

We have a little less than 6 hours until they come out. I'm crossing my fingers.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 02:02 AM

5. May be as high as 200K. Obama better hope so.

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