Republican Enthusiasm Gap Could Spell Trouble For Party In November

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/republican-enthusiasm-gap-could-spell-trouble-for-party-in-november.php


Republican Enthusiasm Gap Could Spell Trouble For Party In November
Kyle Leighton February 13, 2012, 6:02 AM 1441 32


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“I think the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans is partially about Romney, but more broadly a reflection of their discontent with the field as a whole,” said Public Policy Polling (D) pollster Tom Jensen in an email to TPM. In addition to PPP, Pew numbers from early January found the same trend. “We did a national poll last week that found only 47% of GOP voters were satisfied with their choice of candidates, while 41% wished someone else would get into the race. That compares to 73% of Democrats who said they were happy to have Obama as their candidate.”

“Republican voters aren’t ready to run through a wall for any of these candidates, in contrast to the way Democrats felt about Clinton and Obama in 2008,” he went on. “That may change once they have a nominee and the focus shifts to beating Obama, but for now Democrats are more excited for the fall.”



Theoretically, it would be quite a challenge to dampen Republican spirits to the point that they could lose the edge on enthusiasm heading into November of 2012 — but the last few weeks suggest it could happen. The economy has ticked up bringing the President’s approval along with it, something Miringoff said is “More of a motivator if the approval rating is tanking — it’s not a great strategy if the worst is behind us.” The GOP primary process is getting more negative and disruptive, continuing on even though there’s a candidate with the most money and organization, not to mention the support of several well-funded super PACs. And Obama himself has made a successful pivot to jobs and the economy, coupling it with foreign policy successes that provide a supporting argument on his competency as President.

It is more likely that Republicans will rally around Romney or whomever is the candidate — the smart bet is the anti-Obama sentiment will be a major motivator after Americans suffered through a three year recession. But will that be enough to elect a bland or flawed GOP nominee? This is where Miringoff says the GOP may run in trouble when the height of the campaign comes in the fall.

“You do want to energize your base,” he said. “If in September and October there’s a lot of frustration with independents, who to turn off the campaign because they aren’t satisfied with the candidates, it may become a base election. Obama’ recent decisions certainly seem to show he understands that.”