Hillary is toast, and this is why!

[kcjohn1]

If you look deeply at NH, she lost precincts that she won big against Obama. She actually did better in areas where Obama won last time (affluent, college educated, etc). It's almost a reverse. She is doing better with higher income & college educated, while Bernie is killing it with lower incomes.

Essentially she "has" the Obama coalition from 08. But as Clinton folks keep telling us, she barely lost to Obama in 08 despite him being the greatest campaigner ever. If Bernie takes over her spot, isn't it going to be close race? Sure she will dominate 65+ instead of the younger voters, but its almost in reverse.

BUT she will need to win POC, especially African Americans like Obama did. He crushed her. I don't have it in front of me, but probably close to 80/20. Who is confident that Clinton will do as well with African Americans as Obama did? Even if she wins 60/40 she is still toast.

[BeyondGeography]

1. I think she realizes she has found the bottom

And if it doesn't make her a better candidate she could well lose. But I think I actually saw a better candidate for the first time in her speech tonight, and that's going back to 2007/8. She did get into politics for a good reason way back when. Tell us more about that person and why she matters and stop throwing the resume on the table and expecting people to roll over.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Honest Question: You really didn't feel that the speech was a pandering grab at Bernie's platform?

[BeyondGeography]

6. No, because she really was a kick-ass liberal once

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/28/us/politics/how-hillary-clinton-went-undercover-to-examine-race-in-education.html?referer=

[CoffeeCat]

8. I thought she looked terse and frustrated...

...and every time she gives a post-primary speech she creeps more into Bernie's territory.

It's like she realizes that his message is a winner, so she just parrots it. She sure did that tonight.

I noticed that she used the word "change" a few times. If she is seriously going to try and sell herself as a change agent, that will fail in spades.

It's crystal clear that she has no clear message--or even a clear reason for running. She wanted the power and the presidency because it was "her turn."

Never has that been so evident. How many months are we into this primary? And she is still struggling to find a coherent campaign message.

[kcjohn1]

5. I'm Bernie partisan

But I love politics. I can take neutral view and try to see what the political play is. IMO That speech was not good at all. She basically tried to do Bernie's stump speech without any conviction. That easily came through, especially when you saw Bernie right after.

I honestly don't know anything Hillary can do. Strangely she ran the perfect campaign, but for 2004. She did everything by the book. She raised huge amounts of money no other serious candidate would even think about entering. Got the whole establishment behind her so only a fringe candidate would try. If someone like Biden ran she would bury him easily, and he would be out of the race after NH because of lack of money.

The only problem is that change is in the air, and establishment is huge liability. The only thing she can do at this point is stay the course, and hope Bernie fails to turn out young voters, and he flames out. This is out of her hands.

[SammyWinstonJack]

3. I hope so.

[Jarqui]

4. If Bernie makes significant inroads with Latinos in Nevada and

Blacks in South Carolina, even the media will be saying she's in trouble because they were her "firewall"

I believed that if Bernie got a chance to lay out what he wants to do for the people that the numbers would shift significantly for him. It has everywhere he's gone. That big victory tonight, starting to look like +21, and his speech tonight ought to help get the whole country to sit up and take notice - including the media and minorities.

[CoffeeCat]

10. Bernie did very well with Latinos in Iowa

There are cities and towns in Iowa with large Latino populations and the majority were for Bernie. Iowa media did several stories on Bernie's messaging resonating with Latinos. Bernie also did very well with the Latino community in Des Moines. The Latino community leaders were in his corner.

I think Bernie will do very well in NV. He has 14 offices there; 4 more than Hillary.

He's also 6 points ahead of where Obama was in the NV polls at this point. Obama earned more delegates in 2008 against HRC in Nevada. Obama was able to close a 26-point gap in NV without winning NH. And Bernie won NH!

Things are looking good for Bernie in NV!

[JudyM]

11. Thanks, CoffeeCat, I'm glad to read this before turning in tonight!

[earthside]

7. Never underestimate the power of momentum.

Sanders has got it.

Sanders has got the excitement and, man, does he have the message.

I'm not sure Hillary has what it takes to climb out of the sinkhole she is in.
Her big, big problem is that at one time of another she has been on the wrong side of almost every progressive issue.
That is why she has such a huge messaging and authenticity problem.

And as the OP essentially points out, eight years ago is a long time ago.
The political landscape has changed and it isn't nearly as conducive to her 'status quo' message as is was even back then (and she lost then because Obama was the change agent like Sanders is now).

Let's see what happens in the next two weeks ... I really wonder if in South Carolina PoC are going to pull her bacon out of the fire if she is perceived as a loser and/or is just too out-of-touch. I have a hunch that the Sanders phenomenon is going to reach across more and more demographic and social lines.

[bravenak]

9. I don't think so.

This was her worst night of the season. It only gets better for her from here and her contests only get easier. Hard to win NH vs Bernie. It was an obvious win.

He has few other states that he is polling so well in and they are spread out in time. Unless he makes inroads in black and Hispanic communities within the next 11 days, it will be brutal until Super Tuesday, momentum gone or with Hillary, talk about him being finished.

This is actually his only shot to fix his numbers among those who take more convincing. And NH being convinced won't convince NV or SC. Only Bernie can do that. He has 11 days.