The delegate math for New Hampshire

[Alfresco]

I found this on Reddit. How accurate it is I do not know.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/44qr19/the_delegate_math_for_new_hampshire_and_why_its/

New Hampshire has 24 Delegates up for grabs tomorrow. Each of the two congressional district gets 8, and the other 8 are apportioned based on the statewide vote.

Heres the thing, delegates have 'trigger levels' at which they are allocated. The important part is this: any candidate receiving over 43.8% of the vote is allocated 4 of the 8 delegates. This means that Hillary could potentially lose by as much as 11.5% and still come out tied on delegates.

In order to get a 5-3 split of delegates, a candidate needs over 56.3% of the vote. This is potentially in Bernie's grasp, but he is not going to get an 6-2 split in any district, as that requires 68.8%, which is nigh on impossible.

So here is the split:

District 1: The most favorable to Sanders, large population of white LIberals. He has a good chance of winning 5-3 here.

District 2: More moderate, favorable to Hillary. She probably won't win it, but will likely come away with a 4-4 split.

Statewide: Tossup. If I were a betting man, I would say 11.5% is an even spread. Could go either 4-4 or 5-3. 538 estimates a 13 point margin, but even they themselves dont really trust that figure (They prefer picking winners, not margins)..

Why This Matters: Hillary is up 23-21 in pledged delegates (i.e. not super-delegates) following Iowa. If Hillary can hold the margin to within 11.5% in District 2, even if it is higher statewide, we will go into Nevada in a dead heat. If she can hold within the margin statewide, she holds onto her lead in the delegate count.

Forget 'momentum', forget 'media buzz', primaries are win on delegates, short and simple. If Hillary can get through Bernie Sanders 2 most demographically favorable states (excl Vermont) with a tie or even a slim lead in delegates, it looks very favorable for her.

[SheenaR]

1. I disagree with the last paragraph.

If it were that simple, there would not be widespread Reported (not inferred) panic in the Clinton camp and their donor base

[Alfresco]

3. Links?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. Yeah. What people are going to remember are the percentages, not the delegate count.

That's what's going to boost or kill momentum, as well as set the narrative for the next 2.5 weeks or so. Yes, when it comes down to the end, Bernie's going to need as many delegates as possible, but as far as providing his campaign with 'buzz' or 'momentum', it's the percentages that will matter.

[Lucinda]

2. Interesting read. Thanks!

[Alfresco]

9. ...

[frazzled]

5. For all the hoo ha, then ...

there's not a tremendous amount at stake here. Long way to go to.

[DesertRat]

6. Good read

Thanks!

[Alfresco]

10. ...

[DCBob]

7. Wow, in one of Bernie's strongest states, he likely to come out just splitting the delegates.

And if you take super delegates into account, he loses big. That's got to be discouraging.

[Joe the Revelator]

8. You understand of course, if Bernie win tonight....

.....everything starts to change with the down the road primaries, right?

[Alfresco]

11. I understand you hope things start to change. We shall see.

[Joe the Revelator]

12. Look around you. Look at the last week. Things are already changing.

[Alfresco]

13. There's nothing wrong with hoping, Joe.

[Gregorian]

14. More amazing voting facts.

Thanks. I think that helps to understand what's going on. It really is exciting, but it's antiquated. I'll cheer the day when it joins the 21st century, but shed a tear for the colorful culture of the process.