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Wed Oct 3, 2012, 04:44 PM

AZ: Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/carmona-up-2-romney-by-9-in-arizona.html

* Nail biter, arrrg - other polls have them even

Carmona up 2, Romney by 9 in Arizona

PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43. That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.

There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a 50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake's standing will improve.

One thing there's zero doubt about: who would have thought two months ago Democratic prospects in the Arizona Senate race would be better than Republican ones in the Missouri contest?

Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.
Other notes from Arizona:

-Voters are closely divided on Jan Brewer with 47% approving of her to 46% who disapprove. They're leaning toward keeping the Governor's office in GOP hands in 2014 at this early stage- 48% say they'd generally speaking like the next Governor to be a Republican to 40% who prefer a Democrat

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Reply AZ: Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43 (Original post)
flamingdem Oct 2012 OP
TroyD Oct 2012 #1
Cha Oct 2012 #2
flamingdem Oct 2012 #3
TroyD Oct 2012 #4
flamingdem Oct 2012 #5
TroyD Oct 2012 #6
flamingdem Oct 2012 #7

Response to flamingdem (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:38 PM

1. Are the Democrats going to send Bill Clinton to help Carmona?

I've asked this several times, but I haven't heard anything yet.

I'm not sure whey they have Bill Clinton in New Hampshire as that state looks pretty solid for Obama.

Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 and whereas Obama does not have the greatest numbers there according to this PPP poll, Clinton could make a difference in convincing some Independents to come over to Carmona.

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Response to flamingdem (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:41 PM

2. Wow, flamingdem! This is great news for our

Senate! And, of course, the People of Arizona!

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Response to Cha (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:43 PM

3. Flake is a bit less nasty than other Repukes

but we can hope for some blowback taking him down, would be great! How about Gov. Brewer along with him !!

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Response to flamingdem (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 06:09 PM

4. All AZ Democrats on DU need to contact Carmona campaign

Do everything you can to help out, and tell them that they need to bring Bill Clinton to Arizona to appear with Richard Carmona!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 06:10 PM

5. Great idea, Bill will be busy for the next little bit! nt

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 06:19 PM

6. Bill Clinton won ARIZONA in 1996

And in my view he may be one of the only Democrats who is popular enough to campaign for Carmona and help bring over undecided and independent voters.

Unfortunately the PPP today shows Obama has lower approval ratings in AZ than Romney, so Bill is the one to help Carmona.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 06:23 PM

7. Good point, he really needs to plan a trip there

even if he has to deal with Brewer

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