2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAZ: Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/carmona-up-2-romney-by-9-in-arizona.html* Nail biter, arrrg - other polls have them even
Carmona up 2, Romney by 9 in Arizona
PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43. That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.
There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.
There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a 50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake's standing will improve.
One thing there's zero doubt about: who would have thought two months ago Democratic prospects in the Arizona Senate race would be better than Republican ones in the Missouri contest?
Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.
Other notes from Arizona:
-Voters are closely divided on Jan Brewer with 47% approving of her to 46% who disapprove. They're leaning toward keeping the Governor's office in GOP hands in 2014 at this early stage- 48% say they'd generally speaking like the next Governor to be a Republican to 40% who prefer a Democrat
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I've asked this several times, but I haven't heard anything yet.
I'm not sure whey they have Bill Clinton in New Hampshire as that state looks pretty solid for Obama.
Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 and whereas Obama does not have the greatest numbers there according to this PPP poll, Clinton could make a difference in convincing some Independents to come over to Carmona.
Cha
(296,875 posts)Senate! And, of course, the People of Arizona!
flamingdem
(39,308 posts)but we can hope for some blowback taking him down, would be great! How about Gov. Brewer along with him !!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Do everything you can to help out, and tell them that they need to bring Bill Clinton to Arizona to appear with Richard Carmona!
flamingdem
(39,308 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)And in my view he may be one of the only Democrats who is popular enough to campaign for Carmona and help bring over undecided and independent voters.
Unfortunately the PPP today shows Obama has lower approval ratings in AZ than Romney, so Bill is the one to help Carmona.
flamingdem
(39,308 posts)even if he has to deal with Brewer