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Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:37 AM

New Washington post-Abcnews poll shows Obama 49%-Romney 47%

[link:http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/postabcpoll_20120929.html|

31 replies, 3310 views

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Reply New Washington post-Abcnews poll shows Obama 49%-Romney 47% (Original post)
hrmjustin Oct 2012 OP
Mr.Turnip Oct 2012 #1
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #16
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #2
Rowdyboy Oct 2012 #4
former9thward Oct 2012 #23
ChimpersMcSmirkers Oct 2012 #30
DeeDeeNY Oct 2012 #18
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #3
Tribetime Oct 2012 #5
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #8
progree Oct 2012 #14
TroyD Oct 2012 #15
progree Oct 2012 #21
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #27
progree Oct 2012 #29
former9thward Oct 2012 #24
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #19
progree Oct 2012 #20
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #22
progree Oct 2012 #25
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #6
creeksneakers2 Oct 2012 #7
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #9
jaysunb Oct 2012 #10
MADem Oct 2012 #11
NCLefty Oct 2012 #12
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #13
TroyD Oct 2012 #17
Phaerisee Oct 2012 #26
Indpndnt Oct 2012 #28
budkin Oct 2012 #31

Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:48 AM

1. Actually better than the last poll from the same pollster which was Obama + 1 earlier this month.

this poll has been consistently good for Romney on the national level and he's still behind here.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 07:31 AM

16. poll makes no sense

if he is +11 in swing states then he is more ahead than +2 nationally.

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:51 AM

2. The media will latch on to this poll like mad and run the narrative Romney is back in this...

This will give 'em their story leading up to the debate.

"Romney closes polling gap on the eve of presidential debate"

"With momentum on his side, Romney looks to reassure voters he can lead"

"In statistical tie with President, Romney delivers stunning rebuke of Obama administration in first debate"

"Romney nips at Obama's lead, gains after debate"

It's coming. They want a horse race and they'll do everything in their power to make it a horse race.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:57 AM

4. Honestly, I'd be stunned if I don't see at least a couple of your headlines in the next few days...

It MUST be a close race because that sells advertisements and thats really what its all about. Certainly its time for it to become a "horserace" again whether it is or not.

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Response to Rowdyboy (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 02:10 PM

23. It is the campaigns that buy advertisements.

Not people looking at public polls published in newspapers and other media. The campaigns do not pay attention to public polls. They have their own private polling which they never release to the public. So if they are buying ads they must think it is close.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 07:04 PM

30. I think the idea is that the MSM pushes that it's close to get more hits/viewers.

This increases their ad revenue from websites/tv shows.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 07:59 AM

18. Spot on!

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:54 AM

3. The best part: Obama leads 52-41 among swing state voters...

I don't quite understand the dynamics of this poll. I can only guess that Obama is doing remarkably bad in deep red states in the South to only lead by two nationally but hold significant leads in swing states.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:02 AM

5. ditto...if Ohio mirrors overall country, R-money is down by 6% or more

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:09 AM

8. A lot of racist red staters will make the overall popular vote percentage close

Thankfully, their votes will mean shit in the end. Let Alabama and Utah go 70% for Romney. Fuck them.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 03:34 AM

14. Southern white working class: 40 point margin for Romney. So yes, Obama is doing bad in deep red

states.

...poll conducted a few weeks ago by the Public Religion Research Institute in Washington, D.C., ... that poll found that in the South, among white working class voters, Republican Mitt Romney leads Obama by the astounding vote of 62-22 percent ó a 40 percentage point difference.

The poll defined working class as having less than a bachelorís degree and being paid by the hour or by the job.

No other region in the country had anywhere near that differential. In the West, Romney led by just 5 percentage points among white working class voters. In the Northeast, he leads by 4 percentage points. And in the Midwest, Obama leads Romney by 8 percentage points among white working class voters.


http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120930/COLUMNISTS21/309300041/1001/Joseph-Gerth-Polls-suggest-Kentucky-voters-gone-South?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CHome%7Cp

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Response to progree (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 04:36 AM

15. THIS is the demographic most dependent on the government!

And they're still being stupid enough to vote for Romney?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:07 PM

21. Not sure that's true. The red states have large non-white populations

And the only reason they are red states is because the whites in the South are so overwhelmingly Republican.

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Response to progree (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 04:28 PM

27. Seriously. The biggest group of welfare recipients are white people in the South. Period. nt

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #27)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:58 PM

29. How do you know? the demographic being discussed is the southern white WORKING class

And as for southern whites, overall, in what way are they the "biggest group of welfare recipients"? Just wondering where you get your statistics - you seem so sure "Seriously .... Period".

Is it because whites are still the majority of the population (nationwide 64%)? What about the welfare recipient RATE? To me, that's the more relevant measure.

Nationwide, according to an AP 8/8/12 article about the welfare caseload, "The latest statistics show the welfare caseload is divided thus: 33 percent black, 31 percent white and 29 percent Hispanic."

So, at least nation-wide, whites are not the biggest group of welfare recipients, even though they constitute 63.7% of the population.

Also, according to the 2010 census, 63.7% of the population is non-Hispanic white, 16.3% is Hispanic, and 12.6% is black. Doing the math, the black welfare rate is 5.4 times the (non-Hispanic) white rate, while the Hispanic rate is 3.7 X the (non-Hispanic) white rate.

To me, it is not progressive to deny that income inequality hit minorities the hardest.


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Response to TroyD (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 02:16 PM

24. Why do you say that?

Why is the "Southern white working class" demographic the most dependent on the government?

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 11:32 AM

19. Yep, you're right. Robme's margin in RED states is much greater than Obama's margin in BLUE

states. Hence, the vote suppression targeted to some of these populous BLUE states and a little going on in RED states with BLUE populations like the Atlanta area, Houston and Dallas, and South Carolina. If the voters in populous BLUE areas in these RED states are disenfranchised, that also chips away at the popular vote margin.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:04 PM

20. I don't think voter suprpression is affecting the polls. But it might cause a "November Surprise" nt

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Response to progree (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 02:09 PM

22. The voter suppression, in and of itself, may not. But if there's fraud during the registration

process, it may be difficult to get accurate opinions from "registered voters" who support the president/Democrats.

Many of these polls provide numbers for "registered voters" and as we all know, there's been some problems in that area, thanks to Republicans who are tampering with that process.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #22)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 04:21 PM

25. My thought was that the Dems would think they were registered, when they are not ...

In the case of a Republican-funded voter registration drive, they might (and no doubt sometimes do) go ahead and register the Democrat (DemTard or DemocRAT in their parlance), but then throw away, err, "lose" their registration later. Anyway, because the Democrat thinks he/she is registered, he would be telling a pollster that he is. But come election day, complications begin, "Sir, sir, I'm sorry sir, your name is nowhere on our voter rolls. But if you register now, you will be able to vote in the 2013 city council elections ".

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:03 AM

6. The Romney comeback begins

GOTV people.

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Response to creeksneakers2 (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:15 AM

9. must have wrote it in wrong.

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:25 AM

10. Let's see here...

a media giant conducts a poll that they-and other big media- can tout as a " horserace", which lead to more ad dollars. Wow, what a deal....

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:26 AM

11. bad link....


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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 02:04 AM

12. That's 1100 Americans right there.

Need a lot more polls to think something has changed.

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Response to NCLefty (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 02:54 AM

13. Compared to their last poll, Obama is +1...

ABC's poll has had Romney up more than any other major national poll (outside Rasmussen).

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 07:40 AM

17. Obama is also only +2 in POLITCO's new poll this morning

But they are another pollster that has a history of small Obama numbers in the past.

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 04:25 PM

26. 250 million dollars and polls

Some of us Independent types watched the GOP primaries and a lot of tricky stuff happened. Expect more of the same here in the General Election. 47 percent of Americans are going to vote for Mitt Romney? The Numbers do not add up.

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 04:38 PM

28. Good. That'll get out the vote.

Works for me!

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Response to hrmjustin (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 08:17 PM

31. Swing state polls are what matter

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