Sanders gets national polling bump from Iowa; Hillary flat

[morningfog]

Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) have gained support since the Iowa caucuses, according to a new national Morning Consult poll released Wednesday.

Support for Sanders increased 4 points to 35 percent in a Morning Consult poll taken Feb. 2-3. In the same poll taken from Jan. 29 to Feb 1, Sanders had garnered 31 percent support.

The Vermont senator finished in a virtual tie with rival Hillary Clinton in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, giving his campaign a jolt of momentum heading into New Hampshire. Clinton was declared the winner in Iowa by the slimmest of margins.

Clinton's support was unchanged in the new poll, staying at 51 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/268083-sanders-rubio-get-iowa-bump-in-new-poll

Still a steep hill, but moving the right direction.

[ViseGrip]

1. He is the one, who accomplished so much with none of the help Hillary had. GO BERNIE!

[cali]

3. Exactly right

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. Go Bernie IS RIGHT!!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[Politicalboi]

32. I so hope that is our ticket this year

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016

[LiberalArkie]

37. Now if he can only have people who can count tally the votes.

[gyroscope]

2. Looks like a long term trend taking shape

Bernie keeps going up in the polls, Hillary keeps going down.

The more people see of Sanders the more they like him.
The more they see of Hillary, the less they like her.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. Is it any wonder? Anyone who listens to Bernie knows he's for the "little guy" on Main Street...

unlike Hillary, who's supported by all the "Fat Cats" on Wall Street.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[ViseGrip]

6. Ding! And IF this gets reported on tonight, please post it here. Thx.

[pnwmom]

17. By an online pollster who isn't listed on Nate Silver's site

where hundreds of others are ranked.

[Flying Phoenix]

19. Nate missed his mark on the caucus

Next!

[pkdu]

36. Next?...try this "CORRECTION...we made a mistake"

http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/poll-sanders-and-rubio-gain-after-iowa/

[JimDandy]

53. Wow... I didn't realize he had broken above 30%. Yay!! Go Bernie Go!

[pnwmom]

55. He said she would win and she did, 23 to 21 delegates. nt

[w4rma]

56. 22-22. The vote was too tight for Clinton to get the 23rd. She didn't even get 50%. (nt)

[pnwmom]

57. Wrong. She officially got 23, because of the way they distribute delegates in the

different precincts.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/naperville-sun/news/ct-nvs-d204-iowa-caucus-st-0203-20160203-story.html

Clinton's victory also means she will collect 23 of Iowa's U.S. convention delegates and Sanders will win 21. It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-1.3430499

Clinton's victory in Iowa means she will collect 23 delegates and Sanders will win 21. With her advantage in superdelegates — the party officials who can support the candidate of their choice — Clinton now has a total of 385 delegates. Sanders has 29.

It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.

http://www.advocate.com/election/2016/2/02/and-winner-iowa-caucus-hillary-clinton-barely

. AP notes that delegates are awarded proportionately, "based on the statewide vote as well as the vote in the individual congressional districts." A total of 23 were won by Clinton, and 21 were won by Sanders. According to the AP, Clinton’s advantage is in her number of “superdelegates” — the party officials who can switch their support to the candidate of their choice. Adding them to her war chest, Clinton is far ahead with a total of 385 delegates. Sanders has 29.

[w4rma]

59. No. It's 22-22: Precinct delegate weighting is calculated into the state delegate equivalent counts.

Sanders captured 49.6% of the State Delegate Equivalents.
Clinton captured 49.9% of the State Delegate Equivalents.

There are 44 National Delegates. No state delegate equivalent is worth more than any other state delegate equivalent.

So, each ~2.27% of the State Delegate Equivalents is worth a single National Delegate.

If you get 50% of the State Delegate Equivalents, then you get 22 National Delegates. Neither Clinton, nor Sanders reached that threshhold.

And there are no "extra" delegates for 1st place.

Read:

For Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the virtual tie likely means an even split of the 44 delegates, just under 1 percent of what either would require to become the party’s nominee.
…
Josh Putnam is a lecturer in political science at the University of Georgia. He runs the site Frontloading HQ.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/02/what-the-iowa-caucus-means-for-the-only-count-that-counts-delegates/

[pnwmom]

60. The Associated Press explained why it was 23 to 21 and many others reported it.

Your Georgia professor hadn't bothered to acquaint himself with Iowa caucus rules.


FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_RACE_CALL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Q: If Clinton won the caucuses, why didn't she get all the delegates?

A: It's not winner take all.

Iowa Democrats award delegates proportionally, based on the statewide vote and the vote in individual congressional districts. Clinton won two more delegates than Sanders - the tally was 23-21 - even though the vote was very close to a tie. That is because she got the most votes in one congressional district. Seven delegates were at stake in the Third District; she won 4, he won 3.

Also, a pot of 9 delegates was awarded based on the statewide vote. By narrowly winning the statewide vote, Clinton got 5 and Sanders got 4.

---

Q: So, what's the delegate count heading into New Hampshire?

A: Clinton has a big lead, thanks to the party establishment.

Party officials known as superdelegates can support the candidate of their choice. When superdelegates are counted, Clinton has a total of 385 delegates and Sanders only has 29. More than half of the party's superdelegates have decided whom to support - though they can always change their minds.

It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.

---

[w4rma]

61. I stand corrected. I'd been looking for that information for a while now. Thanks. (nt)

[pangaia]

45. Sour grapes, as usual.

Bernie is going to win this. !!!!!!!!!!

[madokie]

46. Anymore when I read Nate Silvers name

my eyes glass over. He is like a stopped watch

[frylock]

33. 4% is a pretty astronomical number when you put it that way.

[pkdu]

34. except it wasnt...

Correction: Due to a processing error, this story inaccurately reported candidates’ support in a previous Morning Consult poll (Jan. 29 – Feb. 1). Sen. Bernie Sanders gained only one percentage point, Hillary Clinton gained one percentage point, Donald Trump lost three percentage points, Sen. Marco Rubio gained four percentage points and Sen. Ted Cruz gained two percentage points. We regret the error.

[link:http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/poll-sanders-and-rubio-gain-after-iowa/|

[frylock]

35. Still pretty large in comparison to .3%

[mythology]

39. Given that in the same poll Clinton also went up 1%

and both are well within the margin of error, it's statistical noise.

The difference in Iowa, while obviously small, was actually tangible in terms of a slight difference in delegates. Granted it's extremely unlikely that the nomination will come down to 1 delegate, but given how Iowa was more or less a tie, who knows.

I say more or less a tie because with the caucus system there are a lot of variations due to the process that makes it much harder to call any close outcome definitive than a primary.

[speaktruthtopower]

5. It would..

need to get a lot closer than that and fast.

[CajunBlazer]

7. I thought that Sanders Supporters didn't believe the polls

Evidently they believe them only the polls that show positive things for their candidates.

Well, if you believe this poll Bernie is in trouble nationally he is 17% percentage points behind Hillary. That's despite polls in Iowa showing him even with Clinton and New Hampshire and probably Vermont which him way ahead. That only means that in the rest of the nation he must be more than 17% behind.

National polls everywhere show Hillary to be the prohibitive favorite, and so does this one.

And to save myself some posts later - No, Bernie is no Barack Obama and the demographics do not favor the underdog this time around. If you don't understand that now, you will after NH primary when you see the results of the next primaries in the next 15 states.

If Bernie can only convince 34% of the minority voters in Iowa to vote for him after many months of trying, how is he going to convince the massive numbers of minorities in those next primary states during only the two weeks following the NH primary? (You don't have to answer that, its a purely rhetorical question which answers itself.)

[cali]

9. Lol. It's you Hillaryites who say Bernie supporters don't believe polls

far more often than actual Bernie supporters

[CajunBlazer]

12. Maybe you should quit laughing and read some of your Bernie brothers' posts

Like in this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511103177

And this one: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511128342

There are plenty more, but I'm not going to spend my time trying to convince you of the obvious.

[Feeling the Bern]

23. I love how people at this site all love Bernie and his positions and his beliefs before

he dared challenge the throne. Has he did that, he isn't a real Democrat, he is awful and his followers are loons.

[morningfog]

10. Lol. Glad your saving your later posts.

Upward movement is good. The number right now is not as significant as the trajectory.

You have to keep in mind what Bernie has been able to do in the past few months.

[CajunBlazer]

14. He doesn't have "a few month"

There are 15 primaries in the next two weeks after NH where except for Vermont, Bernie is 20% to 53% behind

And after that primaries are going to come fast and furious. After new NH and Nevada to the opportunities to spend a week or more in one state will be long gone.

[morningfog]

21. I'm happy where we are.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. When people begin to realize that Hillary's poll numbers are inflated by dirty Wall Street money & other questionable sources...

you'll see the tide quickly turn.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[frylock]

38. This whole "I thought that..." shtick is really past it's shelf life..

I'd advise you guys to get some new material, but we both know that's not possible.

[JDPriestly]

51. In Iowa, Bernie did slightly better than the polls.

Only one poll some time ago (not a long time ago) showed him in a real tie. Some showed him in a statistical tie, but not nearly as close as he is.

34% of minority voters is good and moving up.

[WillyT]

8. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[musiclawyer]

11. The polls are shit and underreporting Bernie support

That is essentially factual now. If Bernie blows our HRC in NH by anywhere close to existing margins, her slide will continue proportionate to his rise. I have been telling my friends to prepare because CA will actually be a factor this year

[MisterP]

15. for Sanders and his campaign, there are no states to be written off

just on principle

[CajunBlazer]

18. Yea, like the minorities in Nevada and South Carolina care...

... what the lily what the lily white ultra liberals in New Hampshire think.

Yea, like the minorities and more moderate progressive white voters in the eight Southern states that vote March 1st are just going to be bowled over by Bernie's one note speeches.

Not counting Vermont, in next 15 primaries Bernie is behind 20% to 52% and there will be almost no time to convince those people. Bernie spent months in Iowa and could only convince 34% of the minorities to vote for him; how you think he is going to do in states where 1/3 to 1/2 of the Democrats are minorities?

The primaries are coming to my neck of the woods now and I can tell you that you will not like the results in the South.

[roguevalley]

26. laugh now. everyone Laffed @ iowa

[Lazy Daisy]

40. lily white?

That term is offensive and has no place here. It's use denotes racial contempt.
Breaking out voting blocks by race is one thing, but to describe one particular race with contempt is another.

[billhicks76]

41. Clinton Cares Nothing About Black People

If she did she wouldn't have supported locking half them up with unfair drug laws.

[pangaia]

48. "Lily white?"

You know, that really sucks.

[A Simple Game]

52. And Hillary spent a lot of time in Iowa and lost 30% of her support, next. n/t

[pnwmom]

13. An online poll conducted by an outfit called "Morning consult"?

They're not listed with the hundreds of others who are ranked on Nate Silver's site.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[Flying Phoenix]

22. Ah, so you discredit yourself.

Morning Consult is an reputable polling company. Last year, it was polling favoring Clinton.

Now it's not. So you call it a shit poll?

[pnwmom]

31. It's an online poll and not listed with 538. I don't care who it favored before or now.

There's no reason to give any weight to it.

[pkdu]

43. And neither should you if this is is an example of their work..

Correction: Due to a processing error, this story inaccurately reported candidates’ support in a previous Morning Consult poll (Jan. 29 – Feb. 1). Sen. Bernie Sanders gained only one percentage point, Hillary Clinton gained one percentage point, Donald Trump lost three percentage points, Sen. Marco Rubio gained four percentage points and Sen. Ted Cruz gained two percentage points. We regret the error.

After nearly beating Hillary Clinton in Iowa, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders saw his support among Democrat voters increase one percentage point to 35 percent, his highest ever amount in Morning Consult polling. But Clinton’s significant lead also increased by one percentage point, up to 51 percent.

[link:http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/poll-sanders-and-rubio-gain-after-iowa/|

[arely staircase]

16. Damn. I never realized she was that far ahead. Holy Shit! nt

[CajunBlazer]

20. Careful, on a steep hill one misstep will send you tumbling down

But don't worry, Bernie is still pretty close to the bottom.

[NurseJackie]

44. +1

[whatchamacallit]

24. Bernie gets a "bump", Hillary is "flat"?

What kinda sexist shit is this?!?

[billhicks76]

42. Lol

Hillary will hand over the presidency to the republicans. After all she is a close ally of the Bush family.

[Duval]

25. Big K&R!!

[SansACause]

47. That's all she needs.

Actually, she could drop to 50% and the superdelegates would give her the win.

[JDPriestly]

49. Good news. The momentum is building for Sanders.

The bad economic news will give him another boost. Sad to have to say it, but he is talking economic solutions. Hillary, Ted Cruz and Rubio are not.

[MrMickeysMom]

50. I was phone banking South Carolina this evening for about an hour...

More Hillary supporters, but some VERY interesting conversations with older voters who are PAYING ATTENTION to what Sanders is saying about health care.

It'll be a harder fight there, but not as hard as you might imagine, since we are strong in numbers with this phone banking thing.

Anyone wanting more information on how easy it is to do, PM me.

[Dem2]

54. What are you talking about? Those numbers don't match what's on Huffpo's site - both increased.

Morning Consult 1/21 - 1/24 1,797 RV 48 31
Morning Consult 1/29 - 2/1 1,928 RV 50 34
Morning Consult 2/2 - 2/3 719 RV 51 35

1/24 - 2/3: Hillary +3, Sanders +4.

Your post is not telling the whole truth.


(Edit: I now see a correction was posted, so it's not your fault)

[amborin]

58. k&r

[LiberalElite]

62. .