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Mon Sep 24, 2012, 09:56 PM

Odds of holding Senate have been improving recently. Anyone know about the House?

Nebraska and North Dakota are probably lost causes this time around, but it's looking like we may hold Wisconsin, Montana, and Connecticut, and Missouri, all of which were looking tough last month. And we've got a good chance for pickups in Massachusetts and Indiana(!) and an outside chance at Nevada and Arizona. Probably not enough for a filibuster-proof majority, but hey! Keeping the Senate Democratic can only do good.

What about the House? I haven't seen many detailed polls yet about the odds of taking it back. Has anyone seen any recent polling numbers? With a Democratic Congress we'd have better shot at getting some more stuff done next year instead of all this crap now.

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Reply Odds of holding Senate have been improving recently. Anyone know about the House? (Original post)
Rochester Sep 2012 OP
Jeff In Milwaukee Sep 2012 #1
elleng Sep 2012 #2
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #3
Tx4obama Sep 2012 #4
Tx4obama Sep 2012 #5
longship Sep 2012 #6
Jennicut Sep 2012 #7
Tx4obama Sep 2012 #9
Waiting For Everyman Sep 2012 #8

Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 09:59 PM

1. I have not

And I wish Nate would get off the schneid and give us something.

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:05 PM

2. Working on it!

Give U.S. a Congress that works for US!

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:06 PM

3. Here is a link...not completely to date, not all that great yet for a Dem majority

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:10 PM

4. Here's what I've seen



Real Clear Politics HOUSE Map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

Election Projection HOUSE Map: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/house12.php
Note: the newest changes are listed on the right side of the page.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - House Chart: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/






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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:26 PM

5. And the most recent House Polls are listed here...

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:55 PM

6. 435 district polls are very expensive.

We see them, but only close to the election, and only in those districts which have a good chance to turn around.

That's why the House races always produces numerous surprises. Pay attention to this on election night because it may give a hint about the night's general outcome. If there are multiple R->D flips in the House when EST polls close, the Reps may be having a bad night.

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:56 PM

7. I don't think we will take back the House.

Democrats need to win 25 seats to take it back. I think we could take back some but 25 seats is really hard to overcome. I think the Senate probably stays Dem, the House stays Repub. There was a lot of damage done in 2010 but slowly but surely we could take back the House.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 25, 2012, 03:21 AM

9. It will all depend on voter turnout. n/t

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Tue Sep 25, 2012, 12:39 AM

8. Princton says it's "a distinct possibility". (74%)

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