Romney’s nightmare scenario

[TroyD]

by Ezra Klein

September 24, 2012

If things don’t start looking better for Mitt Romney soon, they’re going to get a lot worse for him, and very quickly.

To understand the Romney campaign’s nightmare scenario, you need to understand the Romney campaign’s much-vaunted finances. It’s become conventional wisdom that the Romney campaign has more money than the Obama campaign. But that’s not quite right.

SNIP

But here’s the catch: Romney only controls the money raised by his campaign. The money raised by the RNC is controlled by the RNC. The money raised by Karl Rove’s American Crossroads super PAC is controlled by Rove and his partners. And while these groups want Romney to be president, they are not solely devoted to the task of electing Romney as president. If they are devoted to anything, it’s to blocking Obama.

Which leads to Romney’s nightmare scenario: If things don’t turn around for Romney soon, those super PACs may give up on the task of electing Romney as president and turn to the task of encircling Obama’s second term with a Republican House and a Republican Senate.

More:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/24/romneys-nightmare-scenario/

[mucifer]

1. Well the end of the post is a bit of a nightmare for us if we lose the senate

[unblock]

2. a mitigating factor: the best way for republicans to win the senate is by keeping rmoney viable

they can't really just abandon rmoney to twist in the wind and focus on down ticket races, because a viable top of the ticket is a HUGE factor in getting out the vote.

republicans can't turn out for their senate candidates if they're not going to turn out to vote for rmoney.

[TroyD]

3. Good point

What was the strategy for the RNC in 1996 when they knew Bob Dole was going to lose to Clinton?

Did they still keep funding Dole in order to keep the other races viable?

[unblock]

10. can't say i remember that specifically

but i certainly don't recall them trashing dole the way they are trashing rmoney.

i mean, republicans are using their free media time to make statements that hurt rmoney.
remarkably and uncharacteristically undisciplined.

[bushisanidiot]

4. No way will republicans win senate without Romney coattails

And THERE ARE NO COATTAILS because Romney is LOSING in all swing states. I'm starting to think the republicans will be lucky to hold Arizona and tennessee.

[TroyD]

6. I wouldn't go that far

But as Ezra Klein showed at the Washington Post today in this graphic from RCP, Romney has not been able to overtake Obama all year:

[DCBob]

5. I suspect their money will be wasted no matter where its spent.

pathetic rich idiots.

[albondigas111]

7. I want to be Mitt's worst nightmare.

[Kteachums]

8. I think many Americans slept through the last election and are wide awake this time!

Democrats didn't vote the last election. We allowed those idiots to get in office and now we need to take them out. We cannot allow those scumbags in the house to make laws for all Americans. It is crazy! People have been scared into voting. Some of the laws these idiots have tried to pass are nightmares!

[Bluenorthwest]

12. Some States did. But just fyi, no Republican won an office from the West Coast

Oregon had the largest turn out for a midterm since the 80's at least. I'm just not in the mood to take part of the blame for what was a regional neglect of duty.

[Kteachums]

13. Well, I am in WV and Mollohan was defeated in this area.

I know we didn't have a good turn out in that election.

[Frustratedlady]

9. If Romney loses with all that money behind the Republican party,

that has to be humiliating to the Republicans, the Kochs and all the other blowhards who thought they could BUY the presidency and congress. I hope they fail and fail big or 2012 (or 2010) will be the end of somewhat honest elections from now on...probably, the end of the U.S.A. as we know it.

I have to believe in the common sense of the 98%.

[Darchan]

11. Fingers crossed

Hope this is true (somewhat) -- at least the Romney part. We have to give Obama a Democratic Congress, or it'll be gridlock and no progress again.