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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:16 AM

Re: Romney campaign facing cash flow problem,NYT confirms grantcart prediction

Last I week I predicted that the Romney campaign would soon be facing a cash flow problem. There were a few who saw the narrowly defined point I was trying to make that the campaign which has to carry the infrastructure of the campaign would soon be faced with cash flow problems while the Superpacs would have unlimited money for ads:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/125194716 Sept 12


Prediction: Romney campaign will face cash flow problems


Not the Super Pacs (although they may not be getting any more either) but the official Romney campaign.

First thing is Romney has a very small base of contributors and the highest percentage of maxed out contributors.

Second thing is that with debacle after debacle event only the most diehard contributors will stay, most will go to Senate campaigns.

Third Romney never really engendered diehard contributors but more fair weather friends, and the sky is very cloudy.




The NYT is now reporting




http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/us/politics/romney-campaign-cautious-with-ad-budget-even-in-key-states.html?_r=1


One major reason appears to be that Mr. Romney’s campaign finances have been significantly less robust than recent headlines would suggest. Much of the more than $300 million the campaign reported raising this summer is earmarked for the Republican National Committee, state Republican organizations and Congressional races, limiting the money Mr. Romney’s own campaign has to spend.

. . .

Mr. Romney’s absence from the air made sense before the party’s convention in late August, since the campaign’s cash flow became so slow over the summer that it was forced to borrow $20 million to carry it through the event, when his formal nomination freed up tens of millions of dollars for the general election.


. . .

So far it is only buying several days or a week of advertising at a time, a sign that it is being extremely frugal. According to a review of spending figures provided by a group that tracks political advertising, from Sept. 10 through Sept. 24, Mr. Romney and his allies reserved $3.7 million in advertising time in Ohio. That compared with $5.2 million for Mr. Obama and his allies.

In Colorado, Mr. Romney is being outspent $2.2 million to $1.5 million during that same period. In New Hampshire, Mr. Obama is spending $1.2 million, compared with $380,000 to benefit Mr. Romney. The vast majority of that is coming not from the Romney campaign but from American Crossroads, the conservative super PAC.





Several people missed the point that while Superpacs can have a lot of money, campaigns are governed by very strict rules that professional campaign staff are not going willingly cross as they involve real criminal prosecution. Coordination in ad buys, sure but they are not going to pay campaign salaries or chartered jet bills.

With Mitts continuing disaster of a campaign you should expect that donations are harder and harder to get, and that is why Romney still is spending a significant portion of every day at fund raisers, something that no other candidate has been faced with this late in the general election campaign.

All of which points to the fact that Romney isn't a particularly good CEO after all.

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Reply Re: Romney campaign facing cash flow problem,NYT confirms grantcart prediction (Original post)
grantcart Sep 2012 OP
Old and In the Way Sep 2012 #1
central scrutinizer Sep 2012 #2
DLnyc Sep 2012 #3
aletier_v Sep 2012 #5
Whisp Sep 2012 #6
grantcart Sep 2012 #7
patrice Sep 2012 #4
tarheelsunc Sep 2012 #8
grantcart Sep 2012 #12
Carla in Sequim Sep 2012 #9
Tx4obama Sep 2012 #10
grantcart Sep 2012 #13
pnwmom Sep 2012 #24
OmahaBlueDog Sep 2012 #11
grantcart Sep 2012 #14
quaker bill Sep 2012 #15
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #16
mojo2012 Sep 2012 #17
grantcart Sep 2012 #18
WI_DEM Sep 2012 #19
grantcart Sep 2012 #20
Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #21
Desperado_6569 Sep 2012 #22
The Magistrate Sep 2012 #23
grantcart Sep 2012 #25
grantcart Sep 2012 #26

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:23 AM

1. + f&cking 1

Great insight.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:29 AM

2. c'mon Willard, time to fly to the Caymans and hit the ATM.

put YOUR money on the line.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:34 AM

3. Good Point! Mr. Rmoney REALLY SUCKS at managing stuff!

Stuff like states, conventions, campaigns, his own mouth, stuff like that.

I'm sure he could do a real number on a country, if by some horrible cosmic fuckup he managed to get ahold of one!

Maybe we should work really hard to see that that doesn't happen!

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Response to DLnyc (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:36 AM

5. He's good at wrecking stuff

workers

leveraged companies

and possibly the republican party this year

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Response to DLnyc (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:39 AM

6. his big assed donors now realize they invested in an Edsel.

 

The President's donors are in it for real. For an idea not a consumer product.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #6)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:03 AM

7. They are running to help save some Senate seats. Why waste money on a losing campaign.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:36 AM

4. Right on!!! "All of which points to the fact that Romney isn't a particularly good CEO after all."

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:35 AM

8. I don't think Mitt has a fundraising problem

He's getting his big PAC money, even if it doesn't go directly to him, it will go to some groups that attack President Obama. Mitt's problem is that he's done a poor job of managing the money that he has and spending it in the wrong places, which is freaking hilarious considering his background with Bain Capital was the only real "advantage" he ever had.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 06:27 AM

12. Welcome to DU. I am not talking about PAC money but the official campaign money



PAC money buys ad time. The campaign has expenses that only the campaign can spend. Usually it is not an issue but we could be seeing the first time that a campaign runs out of money for its normal infrastructure expenditures while the PACs are swimming in money.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:41 AM

9. Hoodwinked!!!

Also please read this great diary from Dailykos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/20/1134247/-Hoodwinked-Romney-Campaign-Does-NOT-have-the-Money-they-trumpeted

A little snip.....

Now we know what you too may have suspected: that Romney pulled the equivalent of a combined "Enron" & "Wall Street credit default swap" shell game on the public about his campaign's money haul.

He's been raising money alright, but it's coming from few donors who are maxing out to his campaign, the RNC, and the Republican Governors Association. This bundling of different kinds of monies into headline-grabbing newsbuzz intended to capture the news cycle, impress corporate journos, and intimidate Democrats, but the campaign itself can use only so little of this money.


And the party committee, which Mr. Romney helped propel to record-breaking receipts in July, is allowed to spend only about $22 million on advertising that is coordinated with Mr. Romney.

Nice job, grantcart!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:55 AM

10. Somewhere tonight I read that the RNC has 78 MILLION that they are saving up for 2016


I can't remember where the article is though.

And as far as Romney goes his Super PACs have more money than Obama's do.

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 06:30 AM

13. Again three separate things


PAC gots lots of money and can buy ads

RNC has lots of money and has to pay for campaigns in 50 states.

Romney campaign funds which are the ONLY source for its infrastructure expenditrues, like staff, chartered jets, etc.

Romney's campaign is an expensive one with a big headquarters and we could be seeing a campaign run out of money while its PACs and national party has plenty.

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 03:08 PM

24. I read somewhere that only the candidates themselves -- not the super pacs --

get to pay reduced rates for their political ads. In other words, the same ad would cost significantly more to the super Pac.

But they're not allowed to coordinate, so they won't be the same ads.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 02:10 AM

11. Another interesting thought - the conservative superpacs may shift spending

If (especially after the first debate) things still aren't looking good for Rmoney, might the superpacs not shift their resources toward Senate races? Especially Missouri (where the establishment GOP has cut Akin off), but also looking at the races in Wisconsin, Mass, and Virginia. They may see this as a better investment of resources.

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Response to OmahaBlueDog (Reply #11)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 06:33 AM

14. Exactly


Or along similar lines they might end up spending money on Romney ads in states where it might help a Senate candidate.

For example if MA is still close they might buy Romney support ads there knowing that Romney is going to lose but hoping that it would bring Brown a couple of points. As Brown/Warren have pledged no outside ads from PACS it would be the only way for them to indirectly help Brown and not break the pledge.

Another example would be Indiana. Not a swing state but if they need to help their Teaparty candidate then they may buy ads there as well.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 06:41 AM

15. I concurred when you first posted

But what I did not know then is that he had been fluffing the figures with money he does not get and cannot be spent on his behalf.

He has the smell of loser all over him at this point. What he would need to get to the election in a condition to potentially win, is alot of luck, and a surge of cash. He is not going to get lucky because if you read the Vanity Fair piece on BHO, he does not take "stupid shots", and gets very angry when those around him do (even in basketball). He is not going to get a cash surge because his best donors are maxed out, and many more aren't going to be tempted to throw more money at a losing proposition.

The super pacs do have money, but they also have options. There is absolutely no reason in law that they have to spend it now in this cycle on this race. They could just sit on it until 2016. They could spend a bit on some now curiously tight Senate races in red states and reserve the rest. They could pitch some of it at House seats. They could reserve enough to make sure that the organizers of the pacs have very nice salaries between now and 2016 and fund "think tanks" to produce white papers and conferences to discuss them at fancy resorts with nice golf courses, pretty beaches, and fine cuisine... I would bet on the latter.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 07:06 AM

16. You certainly did! I remember this. I also predict that GOP/Super PAC plan

to flood the airways in the final weeks will backfire. Only a few people haven't already made up their minds. Unless something catastrophic happens, people have already settled on their choice. It's now all about GOTV!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 10:25 AM

17. What about the bonuses?

So did the bonuses Romney gave to 4 staffers (total of $112,500) at the end of August come out of the campaign budget? Then he borrows money? Doesn't seem very smart unless it was the only way to keep them from jumping ship

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Response to mojo2012 (Reply #17)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 10:31 AM

18. good point. going to further anger contributors reducing contributions so


MORE BONUSES PLEASE!!!!!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 10:33 AM

19. you have to wonder, too, how many of Mitt's rich pacs will continue to throw $$ at a loser

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #19)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:44 PM

20. exactly -


they may start buying ads in places like MA where they could help their Senate candidate.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:27 PM

21. Even his one advantage in this election was a lie

Good lord. Is there anything about this man that isn't completely fake? Tell me one thing.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:48 PM

22. Canceling Events, donors jumping ship.

I heard he had canceled some events over the weekend so he could attend only fundraisers. I imagine his comments from the hidden video probably has a lot of donors jumping ship as well.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 02:04 PM

23. Indeed, Sir: You Called It

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Response to The Magistrate (Reply #23)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 07:41 PM

25. and good day, Sir.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 12:58 PM

26. kick

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