Flash Flood watches up in the Southwest!
Arizona & New Mexico, possibly Southern California
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3120
Much of the Southwest U.S. is plastered with flash flood watches for today and/or Tuesday, but the juxtaposition of the upper low with TD 16E complicates the rainfall outlook for the Southwest. Both rainmakers are now tracking a bit southeast of earlier forecasts, which reduces the odds of a widespread soaking rain for the Los Angeles area. From San Diego eastward, the deserts of far southern California could still notch 1-2” from scattered thunderstorms as the upper low swings closer to the area this afternoon into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the focused area of convection associated with TD 16E will bring very heavy rain into southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico on Monday night into Tuesday, with widespread 1-3” amounts and localized totals of up to 8” where the circulation impinges on south- and east-facing slopes. The only time Phoenix has seen more than 3” of rain in a calendar day was just last year, when 3.30” fell on September 8, 2014, goosed by moisture from former Hurricane Norbert.
As TD 16E deteriorates, the weakening upper low will approach it, ingesting some of its moisture and setting the stage for scattered but intense thunderstorms from southeast California into Arizona, southern Utah, and New Mexico on Tuesday. These rains will be less focused than Monday’s, but pockets of torrential rain, downburst wind, and even small hail can be expected. Recreationalists will need to be especially vigilant on Tuesday: in some areas, it could seem that conditions are improving on Tuesday morning before dangerous weather develops later in the day.
image credit: National Weather Service
http://www.weather.gov/
