Statistics baffle me.

[Curmudgeoness]

Last edited Mon Mar 23, 2015, 02:14 PM - Edit history (1)

I read an article in the paper today that has me scratching my head. I am hoping that someone out there can explain this to me.

While religious preferences have changed over the years, Americans’ religious beliefs have remained stable. Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe that God exists, 5 percent are agnostic, and 3 percent say they do not believe in God. Seventy percent of Americans believe there is a life after death.

http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/HTML%20Reports/general-social-survey-chronicling-changes-in-american-society.aspx

Now let's get this straight---58% of Americans "believe that God exists", 5% are agnostic, and 3% are atheist. That totals 66%. So exactly where do the other 34% fall? I just assumed that there are three categories, belief in God, not sure/can't know, and nonbelief in God. Help me out here.

To make matters worse, what is it with the 70% of Americans who believe there is life after death? Only 58% believe in God, so that leaves 12% of people who believe in an afterlife who, what?, do not believe in God????

I am very confused.




On edit: I have found the questions asked. I still have not found the raw data on answers, but these are the questions.

Basically, lots of questions narrowing down what religion and denomination they claim, then what religion they were raised in. Then...
Do you believe there is a life after death?
How often do you pray?
Which statement comes closest to your feelings about the Bible? 1. It is the word of God, to be taken literally, word for word. 2. Inspired word of God but not to be taken literally. 3. Ancient book of fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by man.
Which statement comes closest to what you believe about God? 1. I don't believe in God. 2. I don't know whether there is a God and I don't believe there is any way to find out. 3. I don't believe in a personal God, but do believe in a Higher Power of some kind. 4. I find myself believing in God some of the time, but not at others. 5. While I have doubts, I feel that I do believe in God. 6. I know God really exists and I have no doubts about it.
Would you say you have been 'born again' or have had a 'born-again' experience, that is, a turning point in your life when you committed yourself to Christ?
To what extent do you consider yourself a religious person? Are you very religious, moderately religious, slightly religious, or not religious at all?
To what extent do you consider yourself a spiritual person? Are you very spiritual, moderately spiritual, slightly spiritual, or not spiritual at all?
How often do you take part in the activities and organizations of a church or place of worship other than attending service?
Have you ever tried to encourage someone to believe in Jesus Christ or accept Jesus Christ as his or her savior?

[jeff47]

1. Re: the 70%

They could believe in reincarnation, or some other life after death that does not require a deity.

[Curmudgeoness]

2. I thought of that.

But 12%? That seems a little high in the US. I could use that rationale if the number was 1-2%.

[TreasonousBastard]

3. That's just the summary-- you would have to read the whole thing...

to find out.

I'm guessing a large of the 34% would say "agnostic" if they knew what it meant. Also, "Don't know, don't care" doesn't seem to be on the list.

[Curmudgeoness]

6. Do you really think there are that many agnostics

if everyone knew what that meant? That would be 42% of the population who are agnostic (whether they know it or not). I think that is a pretty high number. And if that is true, atheists/agnostics are missing a great opportunity to expand their numbers.

I agree that I would have to read the whole thing to know all the details. But since this is what is being widely reported, that is what I am concerned with. Most people would never read any further than this report, or an even shorter version in the media, and it makes no sense to me. I may try to get into this in more detail later, but for now, I am just perplexed.

[TreasonousBastard]

13. If you want real answers, you have to see not ony the raw data, but...

the questions and the multiple choice answers. If, for instance, they asked me, my answer would be that questions about God are unanswerable so I don't bother with them. I doubt that would be one of the answers.

Raised as a conservative Lutheran, I gave up on that stuff years ago but eventually found spiritual havens with Quakers and UUs. Both of those groups rather steadfastly refuse to discuss God for the same reasons I do-- anyone who claims to have the truth is a liar or a fool. God really just doesn't come up in conversation or during meetings and services. God has become irrelevant.

Death, however, is hardly irrelevant and I find Death Cafes to be a fascinating experience. The possibility of an afterlife is often discussed and more often than not it is seen as a desperate hope that this isn't all there is. God, again, is merely peripheral to the discussion. We have fun speculating on the possibilities of an afterlife, but God is merely one of the people we might meet.

The problem with the afterlife, as with God, is that nobody has come back to tell us what really happens.

[Curmudgeoness]

16. Well, getting the raw data is eluding me.

I got as far as the gss website (general social survey), and found what appeared to be a portal into the data, but the download is only available in SPSS or STATA formats. Neither of these formats are downloading on my computer. So, I am either not computer literate enough to access the data, or we will have to just go with what is reported.....and wonder about it. Damn, I hate when that happens.

[Mr.Bill]

4. There are people who believe

in reincarnation as a form of life after death, yet are Atheist or Agnostic when it comes to a belief in a supreme being.

[Curmudgeoness]

7. But 12%? In the USA?

That is a large number for this country who would believe in reincarnation.

[Mr.Bill]

9. Yes, that would seem to be a high number.

I can only speak to anecdotal experience.

But lately I have become more apt to speak about my Atheism with casual friends and even people I have just met. A surprisingly large amount of them are willing to listen and speak about being at least Agnostic.

Maybe the religious and outspoken right wing is actually driving people in that direction lest they risk being perceived to be aligned with the nut jobs.

And I don't think the average believer is a nut job. I think they are just people who have a need for certain unanswerable questions to be answered, and they have found answers that work for them. I am content that some questions need not be answered.

I am married to a believer (non-practicing Catholic) and we have no problem with each others beliefs or lack thereof.

[Curmudgeoness]

10. I have had that experience as well.

I make no bones about being an atheist, and whenever the subject veers toward religion, I do speak out. I have been surprised at the people who will admit to me in those conversations that they don't really believe in god either. Don't get me wrong, the vast majority are horrified, but there are many who will only admit it to me after they know where I stand. But I bet that they would not tell it to a pollster.

[trotsky]

5. I'm still trying to process that the percent of god-believers is down to 58%.

Seems like just a couple of years ago it was 85%+.

[Curmudgeoness]

8. That makes no sense to me either.

I even checked several different sources to see if there was just a typo in my newspaper (a common occurrence). So unless the AP, who originated the article, made a boo-boo and everyone else is just copying it, that is what was reported. I know there has to be more to this.

[LiberalAndProud]

11. With those numbers, some Americans who identify with a religion

don't believe God exists.

Among Americans, no single religious denomination garners a plurality of followers. Twenty-eight percent of Americans identify with conservative Christian denominations such as Baptist, Pentecostal, and Church of God in Christ. Twenty-four percent of Americans identify as Catholic, and 21 percent of Americans say they are followers of other Protestant denominations such as Episcopal, Methodist, or Lutheran. Just over 1 percent of Americans identify as Jewish.[1]

- See more at: http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/HTML%20Reports/general-social-survey-chronicling-changes-in-american-society.aspx#sthash.ZBHRtqlG.dpuf

28% Conservative Christian
24% Catholic
21% Protestant

Would that be 73%?

Either the study or the analysis is flawed, or both.

[Curmudgeoness]

12. That would be my reasoning too,

except that this organization is supposedly well regarded, just after the US Census Bureau, for the data that they do in the General Social Surveys. A flaw in the study or the analysis would be incredible.

Right now, I am leaning towards a typo in the original AP story as the only possible explanation, which is also an incredible failure.

[LiberalAndProud]

14. It's very convoluted, even considering that there may be a typo.

I know plenty of Methodists who would also consider themselves conservative Christian. It's a good guess that whoever compiled this analysis took considerable liberties with their interpretation.

[Curmudgeoness]

15. There actually was a footnote in the linked article

to explain how they did that classification.

The GSS asks people who expressed a religious preference, “What specific denomination is that, if any?” People have named over 300 specific denominations over the years. Scholars classify those responses in various ways. Most scholars concur that most Baptist denominations, Pentecostal ones, and the Church of God in Christ are among a doctrinally conservative group while Protestant denominations such as Episcopal, Methodist, Lutheran, and Presbyterian are more doctrinally moderate or liberal. We use that distinction here to distinguish two kinds of Protestant; we also distinguish Catholics and Jews from other religions.

It may not be accurate for everyone in those religions, but at least it is explained. It seems that they went with the doctrines of the religions, not considering the individuals.

[progressoid]

17. Interesting stats from that site.

Seems America is a lot more liberal than we are led to believe. Will have to read it more thoroughly when I have more time.

[Thor_MN]

18. The 34% could believe in something other than "God"

Highly unlikely that the 34% is a monolithic block, they just didn't choose what the survey writer defined as "God".

[Curmudgeoness]

19. In the United States of America?

I would feel really heartened to think that that many people shun the term "God". But it doesn't ring true to me. Maybe I am just a pessimist.

[Thor_MN]

20. Well, since you doubt everything about the survey, and every suggestion that anyone offers...

The best solution is to just let it go....

[AlbertCat]

21. The best solution is to just let it go....

also....it's a poll.

If they asked it of a different demographic, the results would be different.

And who knows if people respond honestly?




Basically one can know from this that there are a lot more religious people than nonreligious people.

[Curmudgeoness]

22. You misunderstand my doubts.

I am trying to get more discussion and more thought on this subject. I am considering all the suggestions, although I still find it baffling when I look at the numbers. Sorry if I am pushing it.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. I think the 58% is those answering "I know God really exists and I have no doubts about it"

Here's some data from the 2008 version of the survey (and they say figures don't change much):

I know God really exists and I have no doubts about it. United States: 60.6% (compared with, say, Italy 41%, GB 16.8%, Japan 4.3%)
The number went down 0.8% from 1992 to 2008; and up 0.2% from 2002 to 2008.

2012 data: http://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Analysis/GSS12PAN/GSS12PAN_Var286_1.asp

58.4% 'no doubts'
16.6% 'have doubts, but I feel I do believe'
4.1% 'believe some of the time'
11.1% 'higher power of some kind but not a personal god'
5.6% 'no way to find out'
3.7% 'don't believe in god'

The excess of the 'believe in life after death' 70% over the 58% could be those with some doubts about god. However, there's no reason that you should need to believe in a god to believe in an afterlife; if you think you have a 'soul' that survives you, that doesn't have to be associated with a powerful being. Presumably a lot of people who think they can talk to the dead aren't Christian, since it's not something that turns up in the regular Christian cosmology.

A lot more (maybe all) the other questions have their 2012 data here: http://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Codebooks/GSS12PAN_CB.asp

[Curmudgeoness]

24. Thanks for that.

It does make sense that the ones who say they have doubts but do believe would also believe in a life after death. In fact, I would expect that most of the first two classifications would believe in life after death.

LOL, have to love the "believe some of the time" folks.

Interesting that you would suggest that a lot of people who talk to the dead are not Christian, and that makes total sense in terms of what was taught in the Bible (if you ignore Jesus and the resurrection). I know several people who are regulars at fortune tellers and séances, who go to fairs where they sell crystals and read auras, and every one of them are pretty outspoken Christians. Go figure.