In fairness to the Packer and Patriot defenses

[cthulu2016]

Yes, they both have defenses below what one expects from a championship caliber team. Defense matter a lot in the playoffs. I picked the Giants and I might pick the Ravens over the Pats.

But though those two defenses (GB & NE) are sub-par they are not as bad as they appear.

Look at the list of the top yardage games for QBs. Most are in losses. Teams that are behind tend to gain more yards because they are never running out the clock. Meanwhile, teams up by thirty points give up a lot of yards as a bend-but-don't-break way of running out the clock.

A team down 40-0 in the third quarter can be allowed to score 21 points. A team down 14-0 cannot. A team with a great offense will give up more points and yards. (Meanwhile, a team with no offense will appear to have a slightly better defense than they have because the other team is always running out the clock and playing conservative to sit on their lead.)

Green Bay led the league in pass plays over 20 yards allowed and in interceptions. When you are always up big the other team has no choice but to gamble. They will get a lot of big plays and also throw a lot of interceptions.

All of that said, I'd probably take the Ravens plus the points as an assertion of my old-school values--defense matters. And though I picked the Giants over GB I can't see picking them at SF. Flip a coin on that. I picked NO over SF and should not have. A home team in the playoffs with the better defense of the two teams... put that way, it was a game to avoid. (If one was betting. My picking NO cost me nothing but pride.)

[trumad]

1. If you have the 32nd ranked defense in the league

You've got a shitty defense.

[cthulu2016]

2. that's deep

I know it's not for everyone, but the "reading and math" set can probably grasp the point of the OP, which is that when a top-ranked offense has the 32nd ranked defense their defense is not likely to actually be the 32nd best defense. It is probably an average to low-average defense. If they actually had the worst defense they wouldn't have the best offense.

And when a defensive powerhouse has the lowest ranked offense it is unlikely to actually be the worst offense, either. It is probably an average to low-average offense.

This is due to the fact that football is a sport where when one team is on offense the other team is on defense, and visa versa, so each affects the other.

For instance, a hypothetical team with the worst defense ever and the best offense ever is quite unlikely to lead the league in scoring because they will have fewer possessions than most teams because they will not get any turnovers and their offense will seldom be on the field because the other team will never go three-and-out.

You may have noticed that throughout the regular season, when Green Bay scored forty points their defense held the other team to less than forty points. And when Green Bay scored twenty five points their defense held the other team to less than twenty five points.

That is how they won 15 games. The thing is, the team with the most points wins the game... I'm sorry, I should have said that earlier to avoid any confusion.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to win 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 games with the worst defense. It is, however, possible to win a lot of games with a mediocre defense.

And if you are able to give up a ton of yards while still winning (see above for definition) there is reduced disincentive to giving up a ton of yards.

[trumad]

3. Way to lazy to

go, deep with this.

No Superbowl winner ever had the worse ranked defense in football.

Not one.

Deep enough for you?

[HuckleB]

4. True, but that may not always be the case.

Never say never.

[cthulu2016]

5. I'll be sure to keep that mind

for my "superbowl winners always have the worst ranked defense in football" post I was planning to write.

[madinmaryland]

7. "the 'reading and math' set can probably grasp the point of the OP"...

Heh. There are probably some here that are not grasping your points!

[Old and In the Way]

6. I checked out the NFL stats on team Defense

I looked at the Ravens and 49er's (near the top) and the NYG and Patriots (near the bottom). I also looked at the league average (you can export the data into excel to do this pretty easily). The Pats are actually better than the average on points allowed and total yardage. The difference between the top and bottom on points is <1 touchdown. Interestingly, the Pats have more offensive plays against them in the group...but it kind of makes sense if they are scoring at the clip that they are.

The name of the game is to score more points than your opponent. All it takes a is the O to score X points and the D to hold the opponents to (X-1).