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Sun Jan 6, 2013, 07:37 PM

The first round was fairly predictable

Not sure if the second round will be. The 49ers are overrated. The Patriots are good, but haven't been inconsistent. The Falcons aren't great and the Seahawks are hot. Should make for an exciting second round.

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Reply The first round was fairly predictable (Original post)
Renew Deal Jan 2013 OP
Auggie Jan 2013 #1
aaaaaa5a Jan 2013 #2
JonLP24 Jan 2013 #3

Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Sun Jan 6, 2013, 07:52 PM

1. Opening Spreads

Favorite / Spread / Underdog

At Denver / -9 / Baltimore
At San Francisco / -3 / Green Bay
At Atlanta / -2 / Seattle
At New England / -9.5 / Houston

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Response to Auggie (Reply #1)

Sun Jan 6, 2013, 09:23 PM

2. My take.


Ravens +9

49ers -3

Seahawks +2

Patriots -9.5 (Lay the 9.5 with confidence! The Texans are going to get rolled!)

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Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2013, 01:55 PM

3. I don't think 49ers are overrated

They are #2 in overall efficiency -- http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/01/2012-team-efficiency-rankings-final.html

I trust his efficiency models as he uses them for his weekly game probabilities which is more accurate than using the spread to predict the winner. They are also #2 in yards per pass attempt differential which is offensive ypa - defensive ypa. Sign of a quality team. 49ers have the best rushing team in the league but Kaepernick is very underrated. He is one of the most accurate deep ball throwers in the league and has played like a top 5 QB this season. If he was a qualifying passer, he would be #1 in the league in yards per pass thrown at 8.32. The league leader is RGIII at 8.14.

Look who is #3 in both categories -- Seattle.

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