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Tue Nov 20, 2012, 10:50 AM

How long until the gun bubble blows up?

Panic buying for the last 4 years and still increasing. A classical economy bubble of buying based on fear.

One might want to sell a few now while prices are still high. In 2 or 3 years, when they realize that Obama is not taking away grand pa's shotgun, the panic selling will begin on all of those stockpiled guns and ammo. Then you'll be able to stock up cheap. You may also want to short gun makers too.

just a thought.

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Arrow 34 replies Author Time Post
Reply How long until the gun bubble blows up? (Original post)
safeinOhio Nov 2012 OP
glacierbay Nov 2012 #1
DetlefK Nov 2012 #2
graham4anything Nov 2012 #13
ProgressiveProfessor Nov 2012 #18
graham4anything Nov 2012 #19
friendly_iconoclast Nov 2012 #23
graham4anything Nov 2012 #24
gejohnston Nov 2012 #25
graham4anything Nov 2012 #26
friendly_iconoclast Nov 2012 #29
gejohnston Nov 2012 #30
friendly_iconoclast Nov 2012 #28
AtheistCrusader Nov 2012 #3
slackmaster Nov 2012 #4
sir pball Nov 2012 #5
safeinOhio Nov 2012 #6
slackmaster Nov 2012 #7
Jenoch Nov 2012 #9
slackmaster Nov 2012 #11
Jenoch Nov 2012 #14
krispos42 Nov 2012 #15
MicaelS Nov 2012 #8
ileus Nov 2012 #10
krispos42 Nov 2012 #12
Tuesday Afternoon Nov 2012 #17
krispos42 Nov 2012 #22
Tuesday Afternoon Nov 2012 #31
Tuesday Afternoon Nov 2012 #16
Kennah Nov 2012 #20
holdencaufield Nov 2012 #21
Clames Nov 2012 #32
holdencaufield Nov 2012 #34
Speck Tater Nov 2012 #27
oldhippie Nov 2012 #33

Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:01 AM

1. I think the RW lunatics will keep buying

 

because they'll never believe that Pres. Obama isn't coming for their guns. Maybe a slight slow down in a few months.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:23 AM

2. Gun-manufacturers in trouble. That was Obama's plan all along.

First he does nothing during his entire term, to lure gun-rights-advocates in a false sense of safety. Some saw through this, but this was part of his plan as well: He knew that they would start panic-buying guns and ammo, leading to a temporary expansion of this industrial sector, just as he had planned.

THEN, after winning a mud-slinging contest against Romney and gaining a second term, the trap springs:
He again does nothing, but this time it's a different kind of nothing: In his first term he respected gun-rights as part of cold calculation, but in the second term he will do so with deep-seated spite and hatred. Mountains will shatter with the intensity with which he will ignore this topic. And alas, when it's all too late, those misled will wake up to the dreaded feeling that they had danced to the great deceiver's tune all along.

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Response to DetlefK (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 04:17 PM

13. My Meek Mayor Mike. The Great Equalizer.

 

the gun groupies are sweating bullets.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 07:56 PM

18. Mikey and his fellow potential felons in the MAIG make no one sweat

While he was able to jam through soda controls, he has been ineffective against his favorite bete noir.

He is also not you mayor

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Response to ProgressiveProfessor (Reply #18)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 10:55 PM

19. you never understood the point of the 48 ounce soda-to save the poor health money

 

a mayor cannot enact statewide or federal healthcare

but a wellness program for the poor starts somewhere, and that is the point of changing people's habits

As far as guns, he was the direct cause of Angus King winning, and in California defeating an NRA democrat by electing an anti-gun democrat in his place. He financed that big time and won.
Rome wasn't built in one day
The NRA has decades ahead advantage

and MMMM's mother lived to 102. Time ahead for many, many, many more years

it takes a cement brick, to build a foundation to build a house, to build a nation

the seed has only been planted, we shall watch it grow into a Redwood

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #19)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 02:41 PM

23. And Mikey's doing his bit against the Mooslim menace as well- see the "Demographics Unit"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/21/justice/new-york-nypd-surveillance-no-leads/index.html

Surveillance unit produced no terrorism leads, NYPD says

New York (CNN) -- A controversial NYPD surveillance unit that cataloged information on Muslim communities never produced a lead that linked to a potential terrorist plot during years of investigating, according to the head of the city's police intelligence division.

The NYPD's Demographics Unit -- or Zone Assessment Unit -- was put together with the CIA's help following the September 11, 2001, attacks. The unit has acknowledged that it engaged in monitoring that included Muslim-owned business and mosques across the New York region...

..."I could tell you that I have never made a lead from rhetoric that came from a Demographics report and I'm here since 2006," he said in a June 28 deposition unsealed Monday. "I don't recall other ones prior to my arrival. Again, that's always a possibility. I am not aware of any."

A 60-page report obtained by The Associated Press earlier this year showed NYPD maps of Newark, New Jersey, and photographs of Muslim residences and mosques, while other reports revealed that authorities had tracked websites and on at least one occasion placed an undercover officer with university students.


I can't wait for the day you quit shilling for that crypto-fascist here...

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Reply #23)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 02:46 PM

24. Mayor Mike doesn't control the police department. They are more powerful themselves.

 

No mayor controls the police. They police themselves.
They have the 96 hour rule, and the blue wall of silence.

It is the police commissioner who is the all powerful.

And current one, Raymond Kelly wants to be the next Mayor.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 02:58 PM

25. the police commissioner works for the mayor

if Mayor Mike can't get Kelly to fix his dept, then Mike needs to fire Kelly and hire someone who will clean house.

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Response to gejohnston (Reply #25)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 03:02 PM

26. LOL

 



hasn't been that way in 100s of years.

the police won't allow it.

You Bloomberg haters seem to forget there are 4 different Bloombergs anyhow

The Mayor in a mayor role who has things a mayor (any) has to do
The personal Mike-a Boston liberal
The head of the single largest to the left of Fox news organization in the world
The head of the just started super pac that is taking on the NRA

each is an entity separate from the other 3.

To just say Bloomberg means you don't know how things are done in NYC, the history and the person himself.



I can understand though why people from the gun threads don't like him, because for the first time ever, the NRA has someone bigger and better than the NRA and they are sweating bullets.(pun intended)

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #26)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 03:16 PM

29. "The personal Mike-a Boston liberal"- who endorsed Scott Brown over Liz Warren:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/nyregion/bloomberg-gives-support-to-senator-scott-brown.html?_r=0

Bloomberg Endorses Republican in Heated Massachusetts Senate Race
By DAVID W. CHEN

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, one of the most outspoken defenders of Wall Street, has sided against one of the financial industry’s biggest critics in a hotly contested Senate race in his native Massachusetts.

Mr. Bloomberg has agreed to host a fund-raiser at his Upper East Side town house for the re-election campaign of Senator Scott P. Brown, a Republican, who is being challenged by a fiery consumer advocate, Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat who is also a professor at Harvard Law School.


The only person here that you're fooling is yourself.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #26)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 03:23 PM

30. look at the organizational chart

on the City website. You are saying Kelly and NYPD are as out of control as the FBI under JEH? Is the fire dept equally out of control?

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 03:09 PM

28. Bullshit. Mikey appointed the head of his "own army", and wants no outside supervision of it

http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/administration/headquarters_co.shtml

Administration | Police Commissioner

Raymond W. Kelly

Raymond W. Kelly was appointed Police Commissioner of the City of New York in January 2002 by Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, making Commissioner Kelly the first person to hold the post for a second, separate tenure. He also served as Police Commissioner under Mayor David N. Dinkins from 1992-1994.

In 2002, Commissioner Kelly created the first counterterrorism bureau of any municipal police department in the country. He also established a new global intelligence program and stationed New York City detectives in eleven foreign cities. Despite dedicating extensive resources to preventing another terrorist attack, the NYPD has driven crime down by 40% from 2001 levels. Commissioner Kelly also established a Real Time Crime Center, a state-of-the-art facility that uses data mining to search millions of computer records and put investigative leads into the hands of detectives in the field.


http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/don_police_the_nypd_bloomberg_YGSgb2logHEmIeQqdAE1tL

Don’t police the NYPD: Bloomberg

By DAVID SEIFMAN
Last Updated: 1:22 AM, October 9, 2012
Posted: 12:42 AM, October 9, 2012

Appointing an inspector general to oversee the NYPD is a recipe for disaster, Mayor Bloomberg warned yesterday.

“I think if you want to bring crime back, let’s go politicize control of the Police Department,” the mayor said, responding to a reporter’s question about a new City Council bill requiring an IG for cops getting a hearing tomorrow.

“The last thing we need is some politician or judge getting involved with setting policy, because you won’t be safe anymore. But today, you are. Think about that when you write your story,” Bloomberg added.

Thirty of the council’s 51 members have signed on to the IG measure.


http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/bloomberg_calls_nypd_his_own_army_t6r5pINQhahldXvnT8kPGJ


Bloomberg calls NYPD his 'own army' during MIT speech

By DAVID SEIFMAN
Last Updated: 2:42 PM, November 30, 2011
Posted: 2:41 PM, November 30, 2011


Mayor Bloomberg boasted yesterday that "I have my own army" in the NYPD and, if that wasn't enough to establish the city as a worldwide power, added "I have my own state department" as well.

The comments came during a speech the mayor delivered at MIT describing how he was managing the city.

Trying to offer some idea of the scope of New York's workforce, Bloomberg got a bit carried away with himself.

"I have my own army in the NYPD, which is the seventh largest army in the world," he said.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:23 AM

3. Depends. If congress seriously floats the idea of a new AWB

hang on to your ass. The threat is always there, so I'm not sure if we'll see actual deflation of firearm values.
Maybe, but I doubt it.

All it will take is a single news blurb to reverse any downward trend in prices.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:25 AM

4. I don't believe that all of the increase in firearm sales can be attributed to "panic buying"

 

Some of it is a result of an increase in interest in firearms hobbies and shooting sports. People discover that shooting is fun. They have also seen situations in which not owning a weapon puts people at risk, such as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

It may level off, but if there is any real movement in Congress to pass restrictive gun legislation of any kind, it will take off to levels never seen before.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:41 AM

5. Dunno if I'd call it a "bubble" as such

Yes, it is a higher-than-normal rate of buying based on non-market forces...but the prices aren't really that high, certainly nowhere near where they were in 2008. I haven't picked anything up in a couple of years (live in NYC, have to keep my "arsenal" stashed in safes with out-of-state family) but even just occasionally browsing, it seems like the cost is back to a mostly-normal basis.

That, and even buying up firearms out of fear of restriction doesn't mean you're going to sell them when the coast is clear. They don't really cost anything to maintain, you don't HAVE to feed all of them - I can see mass selloffs happening if the economy drops again but hopefully that's not going to happen with a sane man in charge. That would have been interesting though..."Well Romney ain't gonna take my gunz, but what with this here e-konomy in the shitter I just haz to sell them!"

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:53 AM

6. Well, I've always been a contrarian investor and

have done well. I have a few I think I will sell and will put off that new deer rifle until, at least summer.


I remember the housing bubble very well. "Real estate will always go up", "people will always need houses and the population is going up", "you better buy now, before it gets any higher". I think they were saying the same thing about tulips too. Happened with gold back in the early 80's. Ran up over $700 and then dropped back to $200.

The secret to investing is very simple, buy low, sell high.

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 12:15 PM

7. Your investment philosophy is a wise one

 

Following the crowd is never the best thing to do, and it's often the worst thing to do.

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 12:46 PM

9. I know a few gun collectors

that are loathe to sell or trade any of their guns. These are not the guys that have tables at gun shows. These are the kinds of guys who only buy at gun shows.

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Response to Jenoch (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 01:54 PM

11. Buying collectable firearms at gun shows is a ripoff. Mail-order (or Internet) is the way to go.

 

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Response to slackmaster (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 05:16 PM

14. That's a broad brush you are using.

It depends on the gun, the price, the value, etc. The guy I was specifically thinking about is 74 years old and built himself two 6 foot gun safes and probably has close to 200 guns. I'm pretty sure he knows the value of the guns he purchases.

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 06:34 PM

15. I heard that was how somebody made some money.

They advertised stock advice guaranteed to make you money.


The people that took the bait received a card that said "buy low, sell high".




Story from my high-school econ teacher.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 12:39 PM

8. I don't see it happening soon.

Especially on certain guns like converted Saiga shotguns. Prices are as high as $3,000 on Gunbroker. Even a "basic" conversion will run you a $1,000.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 01:33 PM

10. I look forward to the day when used stuff and ammo hits the market.

If the price was right there's dozens of firearms still on my "must have" list.

At the current prices however, there's only 3 or 4 more I need before I'd call it quits.



Ammo....well raw materials aren't going down in price period.


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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 04:08 PM

12. oh, by then they'll have a whole new...

reason to panic. It will be a presidential election year!

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #12)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 07:19 PM

17. Krispos, I respect a broad interpretation of the SoP but, does this thread meet it?

Statement of Purpose
Discuss gun control laws, the Second Amendment, the use of firearms for self-defense, and the use of firearms to commit crime and violence.


I am asking because I, for one, would like for the Admin to consider rewriting our SoP.

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #17)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 07:11 AM

22. not really

But nobody has alerted on it and it's not generating any problems.

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #22)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 04:28 PM

31. good enough-



I guess the admin are allowing for broad interpretation

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 06:52 PM

16. my theory has less to do with Obama and more to do with economic collapse in general.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 01:10 AM

20. Sales will likely remain up, and trend with the economy. As the economy rises, expect sales to rise.

Depends what happens 2-3 years out. If the economy is roaring, which seems unlikely at this point, some of the panic may subside. On the other hand, if you can afford another gun, hell I'll probably buy a few more than I'd like to have rather than periodically selling at pawn shops for grocery money like I do today.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 06:11 AM

21. To show there is no gun bubble ...

 

... everyone list the next gun they're going to buy.

Something you would be buying no matter who had won the election ...

For me, I'm really thinking of an M-1A Carbine in .308

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Response to holdencaufield (Reply #21)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 05:47 PM

32. Looking for a decent bolt-action .308 rifle.

 

Remington 700 SPS 20"
CZ 550 Varmint
Savage 10FP-SR

Something along those lines. $700 at the most if I can find a good deal. I've picked up a SA 1911, a Rock River LAR-15, and a Benelli Nova 18.5" pump 12ga so far this year.

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Response to Clames (Reply #32)

Thu Nov 22, 2012, 07:21 PM

34. My personal recomendation is ...

 

... the Ruger Gunsite Scout. I got one last year and it's quickly becoming my favourite rifle. I take it out when I'm on the property or riding on the trail. It's a carbine so it's lighter and quicker to acquire a target than my Tikka T3. I have mounted the scope forward of the receiver (scout style) which some people hate but I have really come to love -- one eye looking through the scope and the other for situational awareness. It comes standard with a 10-round magazine and a flash suppressor.

I'm only looking for another .308 in semi automatic because I'm looking for a rifle -- not for hunting -- but that can poor down a little hate and discontent if I'm ever in a situation that requires it.

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 03:09 PM

27. I need a new pair of glasses.

 

I read the OP title as how long before the bubble gum blows up!

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Response to safeinOhio (Original post)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 08:31 PM

33. My guns are not financial investments

 

I really don't care what they will sell for in the future.

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