National CC data

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Concealed-Carry-Permit-Holders-Across-the-United-States.pdf

- Three states (South Dakota, Indiana, and Alabama) now have over 10 percent of their adult populations with permits, and 10 states have at least 8 percent of their adult populations with permits.

- The number of concealed carry permit holders is likely much higher than 11.1 million. This is true for three reasons: 1) in six states it isn’t necessary to get a permit to carry a concealed handgun, 2) data is not available for all states, and 3) the data for some of the states are two to three years old and thus don’t include the large recent increases in the number of permits.

- Between 2007 and the preliminary estimates for 2013, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.4 per 100,000 – a 22 percent drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 130 percent. Overall violent crime also fell by 22 percent over that period of time. (emphasis is mine)
http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/07/new-report-from-crime-prevention-research-center-shows-11-1-million-americans-hold-concealed-carry-permits/

[Eleanors38]

1. I'm assuming all data is for "adults," so percentages don't draw from the general population

where "minors" may own long guns, and may have lawful access to handguns. It seems those with CC permits (as required) constitute slightly over 10% of all gun-owners, and 10% of all "adults" in the U.S.A. I wonder where CC numbers will stabilize.

Two questions remain:

1. Why are violent crime\so-called gun crime rates so persistently low?

2. Has any credible link been made between lower crime rates on one hand and gun-ownership\CC on the other?

As difficult as it is to answer the first, the second would require a monster model based, in my opinion, on what threats criminals see to themselves, and how they might perceive what is essentially an individual act, however shared as a mass phenomenon, as in fact a social policy. A policy seen as strong enough to thwart or modiffy criminal culture. Boy, how do you test for that?

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

2. For those 2 questions

1 - What do you mean by low? Yes, over time the rates are lower than they were but is the current rate "low"?

2 - I don't believe there is a link other than the obvious. The obvious being that IMHO CC rates varying between 5 to 25% will have not much effect. If CC became very scarce then criminals may become somewhat bolder.

I suggest invoking the Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in that establishing sufficient control over the conditions and subjects to collect data will change the results compared to a outside system.

IMHO, there will always be those driven, desperate or demented enough that no deterrent would be effective thus even 100% CC would not reduce crimes of aggression to 0. In some cases the only deterrents are death and maximum security.