Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
Mon Jan 5, 2015, 09:07 PM Jan 2015

Great News! Gun Deaths and Automobile Death rates have been falling!

Now this is a lesson in how the Violence Policy Center and others use data in interesting ways.

OBTW, if anyone talks about swimming pool deaths or slips in tubs in a gun conversation, it's an NRA talking point.

Comparing data between guns and automobiles, however, is fine if it's to try to make a gun control point, or if you're the VPC.

This was just posted elsewhere on DU:

Gun Deaths Outpace Motor Vehicle Deaths in 10 States in 2009 New Analysis Shows

http://www.vpc.org/press/1205gunsvscars.htm

"WASHINGTON, DC--A new Violence Policy Center (VPC) state-by-state analysis of government data comparing firearm deaths and motor vehicle deaths shows that gun deaths outpaced motor vehicle deaths in 10 states in 2009, the most recent year for which state level data is available. The 10 states which experienced more firearm deaths than motor vehicle deaths in 2009 are: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Virginia, and Washington (see alphabetical listing of states with mortality figures below). Nationally, there were 31,236 firearm deaths in 2009 and 36,361 motor vehicle deaths according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Injury Prevention and Control."

- Snip -

"Motor vehicle deaths are on the decline as the result of a successful decades-long public health-based injury prevention strategy that includes safety-related changes to vehicles and highway design informed by comprehensive data collection and analysis. Meanwhile, firearms are the only consumer product not regulated by the federal government for health and safety.

VPC Legislative Director Kristen Rand states, “Americans are reaping the benefits of smart safety regulation of motor vehicles. The idea that gun deaths exceed motor vehicle deaths in 10 states is stunning when one considers that 90 percent of American households own a car while fewer than a third own firearms. It is also important to consider that motor vehicles--unlike guns--are essential to the functioning of the entire U.S. economy. It is time to end firearms’ status as the last unregulated consumer product.”


Two things to point out: The graph below is from the VPC article, the link. It shows raw numbers, not rates. The slow increase in gun deaths is not adjusted for population growth; rates have actually been falling!

Second, it's very nice that automobile deaths have been falling, but it has nothing to do with guns or gun control or gun rights.



Be careful what you read, be especially careful of your logical fallacies and always check what the variables are on a graph and where the origin point is.

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

petronius

(26,602 posts)
1. What happened in/after 2006 to trigger that downturn in road fatalities?
Mon Jan 5, 2015, 09:26 PM
Jan 2015

It looks more like the result of a single (or few) distinct change(s) rather than the accumulation of gradual improvements.

Good news, in both cases, obviously...

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
2. I'd attribute some to aging and fewer miles driven for work, economic decline, airbags.
Mon Jan 5, 2015, 09:46 PM
Jan 2015

These factors are probably enough to account for the declines.

Remember Cash for Clunkers? That might have gotten some deathtraps off the roads.

And the economic downturn actually lowered our gross consumption of energy from prior years, that is probably accompanied by fewer miles driven.

See the graph at the bottom.

And, oh, yeah, and I quote:

But, but, because Second Amendment, Freedom, and Liberty, say the right-wing gun nuts. What's a few meaningless deaths compared to being ready to fight socialism, Kenyans, and filthy Liberalism with AR-15s...?


Now for the graph, seems that drop in gas sales fits the drop in auto deaths:



 

Electric Monk

(13,869 posts)
3. Tire pressure monitoring systems became mandatory in new vehicles
Mon Jan 5, 2015, 09:51 PM
Jan 2015

Maybe that had something to do with it? Vehicles do handle better when all the tires are properly inflated.

http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/rulings/tpmsfinalrule.6/tpmsfinalrule.6.html

petronius

(26,602 posts)
4. Interesting, I'd never heard of that (guess I should go car shopping one of
Mon Jan 5, 2015, 10:13 PM
Jan 2015

these decades... )

That would be the kind of triggering event I'm thinking of (and I'm sure it helped), but it doesn't seem like enough: that document estimates ~120 fewer fatalities/year after all cars comply, and the graph in the OP shows a decline of 10,000 fewer/year over half a decade.

It would seem to me that safety improvements like the TPMS should lead to more of a gradual decline--as individual measures trickle into practice--rather than that sudden sharp drop...

discntnt_irny_srcsm

(18,479 posts)
6. To be fair...
Tue Jan 6, 2015, 08:34 PM
Jan 2015

...a better measure would be the number of auto deaths per year per collective 100,000 driven. Maybe folks are working from home a bit more.

petronius

(26,602 posts)
7. You're right, and looking at some more recent data it seems that the fatalities per
Tue Jan 6, 2015, 10:41 PM
Jan 2015

vehicle mile traveled has been trending steadily downward (as would be expected, I think, with the gradual accumulation of safety improvements).

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812055.pdf

The sharp dip in the total fatalities starting in 2005 seems to be due more to reduced driving (economic downturn?), as NYC_SKP suggested. Both the total and the rate jumped a bit in 2012, before turning back down.

I'm pleasantly surprised by the numbers: a fatality rate of 1.1 per 100 million vehicle miles driven is better than I expected. And it's gobsmacking to figure out the total number of miles we do drive: 3 trillion miles per year seems huge (although really it's less than 10,000 per capita). One of those surprising issues of scale, to me...

ManiacJoe

(10,136 posts)
5. Automobile engineers have gotten really good at
Tue Jan 6, 2015, 07:01 PM
Jan 2015

making it hard to die in a car accident. The number of accidents is not going down.

discntnt_irny_srcsm

(18,479 posts)
10. Clearly, we are seriously lacking...
Thu Jan 8, 2015, 08:30 PM
Jan 2015

...adequate 'car-control' in those states. This is likely due to numerous private sales and trafficking from neighboring states.

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Gun Control & RKBA»Great News! Gun Deaths a...