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Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:42 AM

Interesting data on multiple murders (updated)

Last edited Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:18 PM - Edit history (1)

I spent some time this morning looking information on this, and decided to chart it out.

Here is the raw data. Population is from the Census Bureau, info on multiple-homicide incidents are from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Rate is in incidents per million people.





Here's how it looks graphically:








And here is how the 4 victims and 5+ victims (what is generally considered "mass murder") looks like:





Interestingly, the overall trends of the quad and quint-plus murder incidents has them going down.

Of course, the data stops at 2005.



On edit:

I added single-victim homicides to the chart, as well as a least-squares trend line for the single, 4, and 5+ lines.





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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply Interesting data on multiple murders (updated) (Original post)
krispos42 Feb 2013 OP
geckosfeet Feb 2013 #1
NMDemDist2 Feb 2013 #2
krispos42 Feb 2013 #3
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #4
krispos42 Feb 2013 #5
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #6
krispos42 Feb 2013 #9
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #10
krispos42 Feb 2013 #12
slackmaster Feb 2013 #7
krispos42 Feb 2013 #8
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #14
krispos42 Feb 2013 #17
DonP Feb 2013 #18
discntnt_irny_srcsm Feb 2013 #11
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #13
discntnt_irny_srcsm Feb 2013 #15
Tuesday Afternoon Feb 2013 #16
gejohnston Feb 2013 #19

Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:45 AM

1. thanks for the analysis

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Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:47 AM

2. 7 year old data

that's the rub, but thanks for your work!

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Response to NMDemDist2 (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:51 AM

3. It stops 7 years ago

It starts 36 years ago.


It is also a fact that the total homicide rate from 2005 to 2012 has stayed constant, so it is not unreasonable to assume the breakdown rates are similar to 2005.

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Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 08:53 AM

4. Bureau of Justice data stops at '05, why is that?

what about FBI data?

nice job, though - Krispos.

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 09:01 AM

5. Dunno

I think they did a one-time study. It was on their website until a few years ago, then they pulled it from HTML and released the web pages as a PDF. There was a fair amount of stuff in it.


I think the FBI just does total homicides.

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 09:07 AM

6. too bad. it would be interesting to see this data charted to include last year.

thanks for the effort on this. appreciate the hard work and K&R for that reason.

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 01:13 PM

9. We know the total homicide rate is steady

Although I think this information should be part of the annual homicide report the FBI issues.

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 01:20 PM

10. yeah, take that FBI. lol. we told 'em! but, really, it should, I think.

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #10)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 11:16 PM

12. I added some trend lines.

See? Pretty. Only took 2 hours for me to figure out the math and put it into Excel...

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Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 11:34 AM

7. That's a really cool font in the first chart. Not especially easy to read, but looks artistic.

 

Deaths in multiple homicides have always accounted for a very small fraction of homicide deaths. Obviously the risk of being a victim of such an event is remote.

The biggest problem I always have with that kind of information is that certain fatalities are excluded, tossed out as "flyers" because the events that precipitated them, such as the attacks of 9/11/2001 have been classified as acts of terrorism. But I will give krispos42 major Kudos for presenting a picture of all "non-terrorism" homicides rather than the "gun deaths" canard that we are so often treated to on this forum.

Of course, the data stops at 2005.

Yes. Of course.

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Response to slackmaster (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 01:01 PM

8. The font is called "Americana".

The general point is that despite an increase in mass murder potential, the rate has been trending downwards. It's just that the past 20 years or so, it seems that they are going on more frequently.





Despite the 20-year surge of sales of tactical rifles (semiautomatic, fed from a detachable magazine), more and more accessories to attack to these tactical rifles, the continual improvements in ammunition, and the 30-year trend of handguns to go to double-stack, higher-capacity magazines, multiple homicides of all kinds, per capita, are either holding steady or dropping.


The big drop in homicides over the last 23 years came from single-victim homicides, which are always the bulk of people killed per year.

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #8)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 12:18 AM

14. then, how do you account for all the data from the "other side" (hate to use that term)

that says that Gun Violence is on the rise?

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #14)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 09:30 AM

17. I think the "appearance" of gun violence is on the rise

And thanks to Google News, you can always find a bunch of stories supporting pretty much any aspect you want to believe in.



Some people claim that increased medical skills and technologies are to credit for the drop in homicide rates, for example. But that doesn't explain the big jump starting in the early '60s that lasted for 30 years. And why that jump was predominately from murder victims between the ages of 14 and 24, with a secondary contribution from 25-34. You know, young healthy people that would presumably bounce back from injuries better.

also show that rates of a whole bunch of crimes dropped proportionally in the last 20 years.

The forcible rape rate in 1992 was 42.8; in 2011 it was 26.8.
Robbery went from 263.7 to 113.7.
Aggravated assault went from 441.9 to 241.1.

None of those stats are affected by increased medical expertise or new equipment or wonder drugs.

We're committing fewer violent crimes overall. And with fewer incidents of violent crimes being committed, there are fewer bodies, rape victims, assault victims, and robbery victims.

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Response to krispos42 (Reply #17)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 09:57 AM

18. Sadly, I think that information might disappoint some people

There seem to be some people on DU and most of the media that have gargled the Kool Aid that violence is increasing and more mass murders than ever are taking place and it's all the fault of firearms and their owners. Facts be damned.

It's the whole basis for their demands for more stringent laws.

But I don't think facts, regardless of the source, will sway people that think like one DU member that wanted Drone strikes on gun owners that didn't immediately turn in all their guns or the ones down here that unabashedly urge house to house searches and forced confiscation for any that don't turn in their guns.

They're just whack shit crazy and about the only comfort I take from reading those posts, is that they don't have any firearms by their own choice.

You did a lot of work that will be copied and spread around the net to others. Thanks for the time you put in.

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Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2013, 01:32 PM

11. Thanks for the work. Here's some data...

...on the circumstances of homicides and weapons used:

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0310.pdf

It's seriously time to ban arguments.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #11)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 12:16 AM

13. can't open the file - question

does it break it down where arguments with drugs and alcohol are present?

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Response to Tuesday Afternoon (Reply #13)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 02:20 AM

15. do you have adobe acrobat?

It reads PDFs. No it doesn't.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #15)

Sun Feb 10, 2013, 07:21 AM

16. lol

I don't know what the hello I have. it saves but it won't open < ---- me and my computer

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Response to krispos42 (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2013, 01:49 AM

19. KR

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