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Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:23 PM

SCOTUS will hear the Prop. 8 case and

one of the DOMA cases. That means more waiting.

I was hoping for a denial on the Prop. 8 case. See the Live blog thread for more details.

12 replies, 1130 views

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:57 PM

1. I was hoping for a denial...I don't think it's a good sign...nt

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:59 PM

2. It's frustrating.

I'll be waiting to see what happens.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:04 PM

3. I really thought they'd just leave Prop 8 standing, but take up one of the

Doma's...they'll both be 5-4 decisions for sure....only hope is Kennedy has a lucid day when he decides.

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:12 PM

4. Yes. Kennedy's the key.

I can never predict what the SCOTUS will do.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:34 PM

6. You'd think our chances would be better with a gay SCOTUS Chief Justice...

And yes, I am series-es!

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:35 PM

7. I have no knowledge of that, and don't speculate on

such things.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #7)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 05:07 PM

8. Well, not to harp on it, but he got a pre-made family when he was nominated...

Sort of like Charlie Crist...

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:21 PM

5. Doesn't it just take 4 to hear it?

I wouldn't take that as a bad sign. we have 4 terrible justices on every major issue. Kennedy is the key.

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 07:52 PM

9. Call me crazy but I have a good feeling.

It's much more likely for this court to air on the side of free speech/expression than against it. I'll call it 6-3 pro-equality, with Kennedy and Roberts joining the future.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 07:56 PM

10. I'm cautiously optimistic. The arguments in the cases they'll be

hearing are on solid constitutional grounds. It's going to be very, very difficult to decide otherwise, I think. I'm hopeful we're right on this, but I'm just optimistic, not certain.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #10)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 07:58 PM

11. We can't be certain

But if it helps, a future SJC case can always overturn it if need be. Think Plessy v Ferguson.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 09:46 PM

12. I agree we have a good chance, but I think we're looking at a 5 to 4 win, not 6 to 3

I'm much more pessimistic about Kennedy siding with us then Roberts for a few reasons.

1) Kennedy is 76, Roberts is 57, age is a strong indicator of support for gay rights, demographically someone like Roberts is more likely to support it then Kennedy. Kennedy has also gotten more conservative over the last decade, another reason to think he won't side with us.

2) Think long term, like Justice Roberts did in the ACA ruling. Assume the worst happens and we lose both cases, what's the worst outcome we could expect?
2A) On Prop H8 we put it back on the ballot in 2014, and VERY likely win, overturning the courts ruling. We could have won in 2012 if we put it on the ballot.
2B1) On DOMA, the court upholds the whole law as constitutional. Congress starts to push more strongly to repeal DOMA as gay rights/marriage support clearly continues to grow. Give it enough time, democrats control both houses of congress and overturn it. We might not even need full control of the government, we won gay marriage in New York with a republican controlled senate, and I could see a republican president beyond 2016 fear for the party's long term demographic success and their reelection in 2020 that they have to support a repeal of DOMA. Plus, lower courts will likely continue assault different parts of DOMA, forcing the supreme court to almost certainly take up the DOMA case again.

3) Because of 2), if you're Justice Roberts, do you want to preside over a major civil rights court ruling, only to see your ruling overturned in the next decade (either by being outvoted in the court in later years, or by the legislature undoing your ruling)? I don't think he does.

4) Roberts has been pro-business, and some businesses have been urging the Supreme Court to overturn DOMA in order to get a national standard for marriage that's consistent across state lines, to make it easier to plan/run businesses that operate in multiple states.

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