Israel's Crystal Ball

[geek tragedy]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/israel-s-crystal-ball

The more serious move is one to end the ban on Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount and more broadly to allow Jews (and Christians for that matter) to operate on the Temple Mount on equal terms with Muslims. Netanyahu's government has said repeatedly that it does not support altering the status quo and will not allow it. But to understand this stance it's important to understand something about Netanyahu himself. I take a backseat to really no one in my antipathy for Netanyahu. But the extremist he is often portrayed as in liberal US media significantly misses the mark. Yes, he's committed to the basic principles of Revisionist Zionist ideology (in other words, he's a Likudnik). But he's fundamentally a pragmatist interested in "quiet" and perpetuating his own power.

What I mean by that is that he is most focused on preserving the broader status quo. So, famously, while two state types have wanted to end the division between the West Bank/Fatah and Gaza/Hamas and get an empowered Palestinian entity to reach a settlement with and while the hard right wants to reoccupy Gaza or even expel parts of its population, Netanyahu has said again and again that his goal is "quiet". In other words, a de facto truce. You don't send your rockets and we won't send bombs. No solution. Just let it ride. If the question is what does Netanyahu want, it's really all fungible. He wants as much settlement as possible, both because he believes in it and also because it's critical to the strength of his coalition. But he also doesn't want to go so far that causes him too much trouble internationally or in the US. He doesn't want a Palestinian state but he doesn't want to say he doesn't want one either. It was clear that Netanyahu did not want or was not looking for the last war in Gaza and Hamas didn't really seem to be either - both sides essentially stumbled into it. Netanyahu has no interest in resolving anything. He also has no clear agenda he's trying to push. The current status quo - de facto permanent occupation with on-going settlement activity works for him, both politically and ideologically. Critically, it allows him to create more and more facts on the ground, more settlements, more de facto creeping annexation of land. And he'll shift and turn, hem and haw as required by the politics of the moment to perpetuate it.

This is what people like me find so toxic and dangerous about Netanyahu - one of the things. If you think that everything's going great for Israel and time is on its side, well this is all great. As I said above, one critical issue here is creating more facts on the ground with more settlements. There are many in Israel who think "Eventually people got used to the 67 borders. Now many recognize that Israel will never surrender the major settlement blocs along the Green Line (the de facto border between Israel proper and the West Bank). We'll just keep taking more land and even though the current situation isn't great we'll just keep pushing forward and be in a better situation in 20 years than we do now. If you think that's not the case, perpetuating the status quo is dangerous. My own take on Netanyahu is that there's a heavy dose of denial in his quest for "quiet," zero strategic vision or willingness to reckon with what that 20 years out situation actually looks like. But here's where we get back to the Temple Mount.

I don't think changing the status quo on the Temple Mount is some big agenda item for Netanyahu. And I take his government at its word that it has no intention of changing it. But Netanyahu is not a strong leader or a decisive one. And the desire to change it is growing among his constituents. This isn't Menachem Begin's Likud - both Likud and even more its allied parties are no longer the largely secular Likudniks. It's much more tilted in the direction of different strains of Religious Zionism. And these are the people who are pushing for more and more, often provocative visits to the Temple Mount by status quo changing activists and pushing the envelope on praying on the Temple Mount etc. They have friends in the government who'd like to see a change too and they help facilitate it. Netanyahu may not want this fight. But he doesn't want to alienate key parts of his coalition either. So he and they try to ride the tiger. Try to give these extremists enough free rein to keep on their good side while hoping it won't go too far and also saying publicly that they don't want to change the status quo.

To borrow a familiar phrase, the activists and their friends in government are trying to create symbolic facts on the ground that the government will have to react to.

That's one side. Nationalist Israelis trying to change the status quo which has been in place for almost 50 years in the name of things that sound reasonable in the abstract (why shouldn't everyone be allowed to pray there? what about religious freedom?) but are at a minimum deeply provocative and needless. And then in the background, though they're a tiny minority are total extremists saying they want to rebuild the Temple and maybe destroy the mosques.

On the other side, you have Palestinians who are up in arms about the suggestion that the status quo is going to change (not a crazy proposition) and various groups spreading various wild conspiracy theories about Israeli intentions, inciting violence in defense of the mosques, etc. Fatah is part of this, Hamas is part of this. One of the key players is the Northern branch of Israel's own Islamic movement. In going into detail above about the crazies who want to rebuild the Temple, I want to make sure I don't make them sound more prominent than they are. They're a tiny fringe. But I note them here both to give a sense of a full spectrum of activity on the Israeli far right but also to make clear that it's easier for dark forces on the Palestinian side to incite and spread conspiracy theories and lies when you very much can go on the Internet and find Israelis who believe and are pushing for these totally insane things.

...

Puffing up our chests about whether stabbing attacks are evil is just a diversion. Of course they're evil. But what do you do about it? What do you do about it after this flare up subsides? Many will say I'm blaming this whole flare up on people wanting to pray on the Temple Mount. I'm not. What I am saying is that this is the price - either paid in one big payment on in installments on layaway over time - of Israel's and most of the United States' collective denial about the big status quo of the Occupation and the unrealistic belief that it can just be perpetuated over time.

[oberliner]

1. Your bolding choices are fascinating

Could've just as easily bolded these sentences, for instance:

In going into detail above about the crazies who want to rebuild the Temple, I want to make sure I don't make them sound more prominent than they are. They're a tiny fringe.

[geek tragedy]

3. today's tiny fringe become the policy-makers of tomorrow

At one point the settlement enterprise was a fringe project. Now they control Israel and its future.

Kahanists used to be considered a tiny fringe. Now they (via their adherents in Likud and especially Jewish Home parties) control several ministries, including 'Justice' and the administration of the Occupied Territories.

Israel's current government is a tribute to his legacy.

The tiny, insane rightwing fringe is ascendant in Israel.

[DetlefK]

2. Depends on the definition of "status quo":

It can mean "everything stays as it is" or it can mean "we keep on doing what we have always been doing."

There's some newspeak shit in there.

[geek tragedy]

4. status quo is easily definited when it comes to haram al-sharif/temple mount nt