How effective will Erdogan be as Turkey’s new President?

[unhappycamper]

http://www.juancole.com/2014/08/effective-turkeys-president.html

How effective will Erdogan be as Turkey’s new President?
By contributors | Aug. 20, 2014
By Mustafa Gurbuz

The future of Turkey depends not only on Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions but also strategies of the opposition parties, which have proven to be ineffective so far.

Turkey’s first direct presidential election results were no surprise. But despite his success by a narrow margin of 51.8 %, Erdogan did not achieve the outcome he would have liked. The turnout rate, 74 %, was historically low for recent major Turkish elections. Erdogan’s strong sway over the Turkish media during his electoral campaign did not increase his bedrock votes, indicating a persistent anti-Erdogan sentiment in the country. Since Erdogan has repeatedly expressed his intention to go beyond a ceremonial presidency by pushing legal boundaries, tense days await Turkey. Can Erdogan run the government as the President? It is not only about Erdogan’s ambitions but also the strategies of the opposition parties, which proven to be ineffective so far.

Currently, the Turkish Constitution is based on a parliamentary system in which the Prime Minister is the head of the government and the chief executive, whereas the President is the head of the state without any affiliation with a political party. Although the Constitution grants significant powers to the President such as chairing the National Security Council and appointing judges to higher courts, an executive presidency would entail further amendments to the Constitution. If Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins a two-thirds majority of the Parliament in 2015 general elections, it would suffice to enact such amendments without the need for a referendum.

Now, all speculation centers on who the next Prime Minister of the AKP government will be. Erdogan’s vision of a strong Presidency is only possible with a loyalist Prime Minister who reports to him instead of working with him. It is unclear how the senior AKP politicians would respond such an artificial leadership. On Monday, only a day after the election, the outgoing President Abdullah Gul revealed his plans to return politics as “the founder and the first Prime Minister of the AKP.” (The ruling Justice and Development Party headed by Erdogan goes by the Turkish acronym AKP). He earlier rejected a role swap with Erdogan as in Putin-Medvedev model (whereby one would serve as president for a term, then as prime minister, while the other began as PM and then became president).