Yes, Virginia, There Is An El Nino, But "Never, During My Adult Life, Anything Like This Before"

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As the eerily warm, moist autumn in Eastern North America dribbles into an even eerier, water logged Christmas season, we’ve seen a lot of ham fisted reporting along the lines of, “What about all this warm weather, is it climate change?”, with the teeth grindingly shallow answer being, “why no, it’s El Nino!”.

I asked Mike Mann of Penn State to weigh in. “Yes, El Nino is part of it. So are the vagaries of weather. But so too is human-caused climate change. We’ve had weather before, we’ve had big El Ninos before. We have never, at least during my adult life,had anything like this before. Near 80F in DC on Christmas Eve day? That’s not “weather” and it’s not “El Nino”. It is something more.”

Simple concept. Yes, El Nino makes cold air breakouts from Canada less likely, and a warm December more likely – but the kind of records we are breaking this year, many of them set in previous El Ninos, are indications that there is indeed “something more.”

That something more is a large amount of heat and moisture in the atmosphere that was not there 10, 20, or 50 years ago. Heat and moisture that are part of every weather event, including the current one. So, yes, Virginia, there is an El Nino, but that’s not the only thing that’s slouching toward Bethlehem with this year’s unsettlingly balmy Noel.

EDIT

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/23/yes-virginia-there-is-an-el-nino/

[ms liberty]

1. Kick and rec. n/t

[Backwoodsrider]

2. these extrenes with us from here on out?

Nice piece. Is the current heat/moisture extreme in the atmosphere going to continue causing extreme weather events for at least the next 100 years if everyone stops polluting today?

PS I live in rural community in Oregon and most every high tide the railroad tracks go underwater. This year I have never seen them covered so deep.

[greenman3610]

4. answer is yes.

the current heat and moisture are the result of emissions from decades ago. Our current emissions will be felt decades from now.
even a complete cessation in emissions today would still leave us with 50 - 60 years more warming as energy moves thru the ocean and equilibrates.
Important to move quickly as possible.

[nashville_brook]

3. the rain and heat in Florida right now is ridiculous.

and we're only at the very tip of the iceberg with this El Nino.


Everyone needs to check their flood insurance this year, and pray that salt water intrusion is held off for just a few more years.

[hedgehog]

5. We need to start addressing Florida in a serious manner -

it's a very populous state that will become uninhabitable sooner than anyone realizes. We can't let an entire population become refugees with no resources. Sounds a bit more important than the next big bomber or aircraft carrier to me.

[hedgehog]

6. My husband drove his antique car on Christmas Day - in Upstate NY!

We also passed several motorcyclists.

This is totally unheard of.

Oddly enough, we saw an Arctic owl the other day. They are this far south because a late season freeze last year devastated their usual food sources of small rodents.

When we get mild Decembers, they tend to be followed by record breaking cold and snow in late January and early February.

[Marty McGraw]

7. They really need to

Drop the name El Nino, since anything going on this time forward has no way of resembling anything El Nino - like in history. Prior El Ninos were the exact opposite usu. leaving the East coast cold and dry and the west coast more tropical and moist. For the past 10yrs. all we hear on the west coast is that this is the year of El Nino. Makes me wonder if there are Home Depot Lobbyist in the midst.

There are *no* prior models that the weather patterns will now take that can have a name stuck to it. Don't know why the persistence with the need to *name* it.

[Wellstone ruled]

8. Part of the New Normal

in near Climate issues. Reno Nevada and the Donner Pass Area are at 130% of Normal for snow to date. Five freezing over night low temps for Vegas,now that is a record,could see a three or four more nights of this. Upside,the Palm Tree growers in Arizona will be busy next summer replacing all the Winter Kill. Try this,Seasonal Wind Patterns switched in the early 2000's,starting the major South West Drought,Rain storms coming from the Southeast rather than Southwest or West Northwest. Climate change is for real.

[Proserpina]

9. One human lifetime is a ludicrously small span in geologic terms

Especially when records for El Nino only go back to 1950.

Understand also, that no matter how much screaming comes out of the West, neither China nor India, nor even Africa, are willing to revert to their previous powerless existence.

Since warfare is the biggest polluting industry on the planet, peace would be a very good move. And an end to profit would make sharing the wealth with the underdeveloped nations more likely.

The amount of change needed to effectively deal with the changes imposed upon humanity by Nature goes far beyond such scams as carbon tax, credits and swaps. It goes beyond US hegemony in the World Bank, IMF, NATO, etc. It certainly doesn't include such thefts as TPP, TiSA, TPiP, etc.

And the NSA can hang up its efforts, there won't be any need for them.

Will we get that far? Not in my lifetime, I am afraid.

[jalan48]

10. Any bets on whether there will be a question about climate change in the next debate?

I guess if we don't talk about it then it really isn't happening.

[bvar22]

11. Some of us who grow our own food were discussing this yesterday.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/112795271

Many plants need a cold season for dormancy...or they die.
Other veggies will NOT produce when temps are too hot.
We produced almost nothing last year, and neither did anyone else in this area.
BAD year.

If this is the New Normal, we are all fucked.
I was working in the Garden on Christmas Day, and the temp was 83 Degrees.
This is NOT a "good thing".

[MisterP]

14. whereas in CA it's unseasonably fresh--we've never had a Christmas under 85

[JDPriestly]

15. Tulips need a cold season for dormancy.

Some fruit trees like pears produce best if there is a winter.

Also peonies and northern lilacs (the kind that smell so good) don't grow in our warm Southern California climate in general. Just thinking of a few plants that need winter or thrive when they have a cold winter.

[ValasHune]

12. Something is just ...wrong.

I'm not sure there's much any human can do anymore to reverse it. The planet is responding 'NOT in kind' to the imbalance that humanity has created.

[JDPriestly]

13. Still dry in Southern California. We had maybe a fourth an inch of rain a few

days ago. But since, nada.

It's been cool, winter cool -- in the 50s and even 40s in my part of Los Angeles. That's cool winter weather for us.

So far, no el nino in LA.

The Snow pack in the Sierras should help us some.

[ValasHune]

16. Solidarity

I still refuse to buy Nestle products. I Hope nature shifts back to the wet side for you VERY soon.