Ralph Keeling - Mauna Loa CO2 Levels Below 400 Unlikely For The Rest Of Our Lives And Beyond
El Niño has its fingers in a lot of pies this year: Not only is it helping to boost 2015 toward the warmest year on record, but it is also a major factor in blockbuster hurricane activity in the Pacific and is contributing to a major worldwide coral die-off. By this time next year we’ll probably be able to add another effect to that list: This El Niño is likely to tip us over into a world with carbon dioxide concentrations permanently above 400 parts per million.
“Will daily values at Mauna Loa ever fall below 400 ppm again in our lifetimes? I’m prepared to project that they won’t, making the current values the last time the Mauna Loa record will produce numbers in the 300s,” Ralph Keeling, the director of the CO2 Program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said in an Oct. 21 blog post.
EDIT
The first time the Mauna Loa record saw a measurement above 400 ppm was in May 2013. Because of the yearly buildup, that mark was passed earlier in 2014, and CO2 levels stayed above it for longer — that April was the first month with an average above 400 ppm. This year, levels were above that value for six months before declining and bottoming out in September. Scientists like Keeling have been waiting for the year when they no longer drop below 400 ppm. He thinks that because of the influence of El Niño, this coming year will be the one.
El Niño’s Push
CO2 levels rise much faster during and just following an El Niño event, he said. Much of this is because the shift in the location of warm tropical Pacific Ocean waters that is a hallmark of El Niño leads to a shift in the location of tropical rains. Many tropical forests end up in drought and there can often be an uptick in forest fires (as has been the case with the terrific forest fires in Indonesia this year), meaning even more CO2 builds up in the atmosphere.
EDIT
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-could-push-co2-above-milestone-19605
