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Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:46 PM

Draft AR5 report leaked.

Get it while it's hot: http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/

14 replies, 976 views

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Draft AR5 report leaked. (Original post)
GliderGuider Dec 2012 OP
glinda Dec 2012 #1
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #2
NoOneMan Dec 2012 #3
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #4
NoOneMan Dec 2012 #5
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #6
CRH Dec 2012 #7
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #8
wtmusic Dec 2012 #9
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #10
wtmusic Dec 2012 #11
GliderGuider Dec 2012 #12
wtmusic Dec 2012 #13
joshcryer Dec 2012 #14

Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:51 PM

1. What is an AR5 report and could you summarize a little?

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Response to glinda (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 07:03 PM

2. It's the United Nations IPCC 5th Assessment Report on climate change

It was due to be released next year. It's the Big Kahuna of Climate Change. the Fourth Assessment Report was published 5 years ago in 2007.

The summary, as far as I can tell is, "Yup, we're still screwed."

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Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 07:06 PM

3. Is this 100% authenticated?

 

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Response to NoOneMan (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 07:17 PM

4. What would 100% look like?

It sure looks genuine to me. There are 14 chapters, the Summary for Policymakers and the Technical Summary on the web site, all as PDFs in the IPCC AR format. I've looked at the SPM and Chapter 12, and it looks absolutely authentic to me.

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Response to GliderGuider (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 07:26 PM

5. Nevermind

 

Im a little less confused now. Sounds like this was just another reviewer with an agenda and this is the real deal

Leaked IPCC report reaffirms dangerous climate change

They probably wanted to kick it out there with a right-wing spin before the media could dissect the official release. At least people have access to it now, so the intention is irrelevant.

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Response to NoOneMan (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 07:44 PM

6. Yes. the spin by the leaker looks pretty right-wing to me.

Cosmic rays and all...

But the doc itself seems genuine. I've captured all 131 MB of of it.

On edit: This probably has the UN tearing their hair out, since now they will need to justify every edit they make in the final version. I would totally hate to be in their shoes.

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Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 08:44 PM

7. Thanks for the heads up, n/t

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Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 08:56 PM

8. Excerpts from an article in The Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/14/ipcc-climate-change-report-leaked-online

A little-known US-based climate sceptic called Alex Rawls, who had been accepted by the IPCC to be one of the report's 800 expert reviewers, admitted to leaking the document. In a statement posted online, he sought to justify the leak: "The addition of one single sentence (discussing the influence of cosmic rays on the earth's climate) demands the release of the whole. That sentence is an astounding bit of honesty, a killing admission that completely undercuts the main premise and the main conclusion of the full report, revealing the fundamental dishonesty of the whole."

Climate sceptics have heralded the sentence – which they interpret as meaning that cosmic rays could have a greater warming influence on the planet than mankind's emissions – as "game-changing".

The isolation by climate sceptics of one sentence in the 14-chapter draft report was described as "completely ridiculous" by one of the report's lead authors. Prof Steve Sherwood, a director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, told ABC Radio in Australia: "You could go and read those paragraphs yourself and the summary of it and see that we conclude exactly the opposite, that this cosmic ray effect that the paragraph is discussing appears to be negligible … It's a pretty severe case of (cherry-picking), because even the sentence doesn't say what (climate sceptics) say and certainly if you look at the context, we're really saying the opposite."

The leaked draft "summary for policymakers" contains a statement that appears to contradict the climate sceptics' interpretation. It says: "There is consistent evidence from observations of a net energy uptake of the earth system due to an imbalance in the energy budget. It is virtually certain that this is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in CO2 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance."

This is accompanied by an explanation that the term "virtually certain" indicates a 99% confidence level.

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Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 09:30 PM

9. He's claiming the Freedom of Information Act applies to the UN

What a moron.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 09:34 PM

10. CYA - he knows what he signed. nt

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Response to GliderGuider (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 10:24 PM

11. A Contrarian Spin on the Next Big Climate Report



"Some Green readers have probably heard by now that a draft of the next big United Nations report on climate change has leaked.

The agent of the leak is a rather colorful climate contrarian named Alec Rawls, who essentially claimed, on the basis of a single sentence in the draft, that the entire edifice of climate science is about to collapse. In his interpretation, the group putting the report together, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is about to acknowledge the validity of a longstanding fringe theory: that cosmic rays have a huge influence on the earth’s climate.

This claim turns out to be an overstatement, to say the least. But first, what do the leak and the accompanying flurry of reaction on blogs tell us about the United Nations exercise of periodically summarizing climate science?"

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/14/a-contrarian-spin-on-the-next-big-climate-report/

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #11)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 10:29 PM

12. Another good paragraph from the blog:

Some other scientists, and a lot of environmental campaigners, feel the I.P.C.C. is just too cautious and too bureaucratic to make contributions to the global discourse that matter in real time. In their view, climate change itself is outrunning the statements that scientists are able to make about it through such a ponderous mechanism.

Yeah, that's sure my view!

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Response to GliderGuider (Reply #12)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 10:37 PM

13. Science rarely moves in real time

They're trying to be thorough. But when you pass it around to 1000 people, at least one flat-earther's going to get his hands on it.

They're damned either way.

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Response to GliderGuider (Reply #12)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 04:25 AM

14. Yep, IPCC has become, rather than an informer, a delayer.

It is in some ways designed to keep us from acting.

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