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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:23 AM

Worst Case Climate Projections Likely: Study

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/09


“When examining the impact of future increases in heat-trapping gases, we find that the simulations with the best fidelity come from models that produce more warming,” says study co-author Kevin Trenberth. (photo: Horizon2035 via flickr)

The worst case projections for global warming may be the most likely, according to an analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).


The NASA-funded research by NCAR scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth was published Thursday in the journal Science.

Fasullo and Trenberth analyzed how 16 leading climate models reproduce observed relative humidity, a major influence on global temperatures, focusing on the subtropics.


11 replies, 929 views

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Worst Case Climate Projections Likely: Study (Original post)
xchrom Nov 2012 OP
immoderate Nov 2012 #1
AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #6
immoderate Nov 2012 #9
AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #10
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 #2
xchrom Nov 2012 #3
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 #5
xchrom Nov 2012 #4
joshcryer Nov 2012 #7
joshcryer Nov 2012 #8
joshcryer Nov 2012 #11


Response to immoderate (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:43 PM

6. Link deleted.

(Immoderate pointed out that the scientists in the study cited known anti-AGW 'skeptic' Roy Spencer, a fact that I had unintentionally overlooked when first browsing the document. In the interest of maintaining intellectual honesty, I've decided to eliminate the link.)

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 10:06 AM

9. That they cite Roy Spencer sets off alarms.

Spencer is a major denier. He is funded by Exxon, Heartland Institute, Marshall Institute, Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, and other think tanks that deny global warming.

I didn't disassemble their thesis, but clouds provide both a negative and positive feedback for warming. In any case this information is suspect.

Here's an interesting source, though a bit dated.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/maps.php

Also check out books, presentations by Naomi Oreskes who has investigated those think tanks.


--imm

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Response to immoderate (Reply #9)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 02:18 PM

10. Thanks for the heads-up, then.

I must have overlooked the Spencer thing somehow.

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Response to xchrom (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:44 AM

2. Is that the link you meant to use ?

Spanish unemployment.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:45 AM

3. that'll teach me to have more than 1 window open at a time.

i fixed it.

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Response to xchrom (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:47 AM

5. Done that myself before

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Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:46 AM

4. sure. spanish unemployment is the root of all modern woes. nt

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Response to xchrom (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 01:33 AM

7. I would love to read the study.

If anyone wants to hit me up joshcryer@gmail.com

edit: looks like it'll be available here sometime soon: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/index.html

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #7)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 01:49 AM

8. Supplimentary materials here:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792/suppl/DC1

Science Mag link: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792.short

Title of the study is, "A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity."

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Response to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Nov 19, 2012, 04:47 AM

11. Fasullo was kind enough to send me the paper.



This helps illustrate what they expect to happen. Equatorial regions will get hotter and brighter, with less clouds. There won't be an appreciable increase in clouds in higher latitudes.

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