Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:23 AM
xchrom (90,600 posts)
Worst Case Climate Projections Likely: StudyLast edited Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:45 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/09
“When examining the impact of future increases in heat-trapping gases, we find that the simulations with the best fidelity come from models that produce more warming,” says study co-author Kevin Trenberth. (photo: Horizon2035 via flickr) The worst case projections for global warming may be the most likely, according to an analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The NASA-funded research by NCAR scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth was published Thursday in the journal Science. Fasullo and Trenberth analyzed how 16 leading climate models reproduce observed relative humidity, a major influence on global temperatures, focusing on the subtropics.
|
11 replies, 596 views
| Author | Time | Post | |
| xchrom | Nov 2012 | OP | |
| immoderate | Nov 2012 | #1 | |
| AverageJoe90 | Nov 2012 | #6 | |
| immoderate | Nov 2012 | #9 | |
| AverageJoe90 | Nov 2012 | #10 | |
| dipsydoodle | Nov 2012 | #2 | |
| xchrom | Nov 2012 | #3 | |
| dipsydoodle | Nov 2012 | #5 | |
| xchrom | Nov 2012 | #4 | |
| joshcryer | Nov 2012 | #7 | |
| joshcryer | Nov 2012 | #8 | |
| joshcryer | Nov 2012 | #11 |
Response to xchrom (Original post)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:42 AM
immoderate (16,455 posts)
1. Link doesn't. This one is better...
Response to immoderate (Reply #1)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:43 PM
AverageJoe90 (5,368 posts)
6. Link deleted.
|
Last edited Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:53 AM USA/ET - Edit history (2) (Immoderate pointed out that the scientists in the study cited known anti-AGW 'skeptic' Roy Spencer, a fact that I had unintentionally overlooked when first browsing the document. In the interest of maintaining intellectual honesty, I've decided to eliminate the link.)
|
Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #6)
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 10:06 AM
immoderate (16,455 posts)
9. That they cite Roy Spencer sets off alarms.
|
Spencer is a major denier. He is funded by Exxon, Heartland Institute, Marshall Institute, Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, and other think tanks that deny global warming.
I didn't disassemble their thesis, but clouds provide both a negative and positive feedback for warming. In any case this information is suspect. Here's an interesting source, though a bit dated. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/maps.php Also check out books, presentations by Naomi Oreskes who has investigated those think tanks. --imm |
Response to immoderate (Reply #9)
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 02:18 PM
AverageJoe90 (5,368 posts)
10. Thanks for the heads-up, then.
|
I must have overlooked the Spencer thing somehow.
|
Response to xchrom (Original post)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:44 AM
dipsydoodle (32,668 posts)
2. Is that the link you meant to use ?
|
Spanish unemployment.
|
Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #2)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:45 AM
xchrom (90,600 posts)
3. that'll teach me to have more than 1 window open at a time.
|
i fixed it.
|
Response to xchrom (Reply #3)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:47 AM
dipsydoodle (32,668 posts)
5. Done that myself before
|
|
Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #2)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:46 AM
xchrom (90,600 posts)
4. sure. spanish unemployment is the root of all modern woes. nt
Response to xchrom (Original post)
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 01:33 AM
joshcryer (39,760 posts)
7. I would love to read the study.
|
Last edited Sat Nov 10, 2012, 01:38 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) If anyone wants to hit me up joshcryer@gmail.com
edit: looks like it'll be available here sometime soon: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/index.html |
Response to joshcryer (Reply #7)
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 01:49 AM
joshcryer (39,760 posts)
8. Supplimentary materials here:
|
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792/suppl/DC1
Science Mag link: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792.short Title of the study is, "A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity." |
Response to xchrom (Original post)
Mon Nov 19, 2012, 04:47 AM
joshcryer (39,760 posts)
11. Fasullo was kind enough to send me the paper.
This helps illustrate what they expect to happen. Equatorial regions will get hotter and brighter, with less clouds. There won't be an appreciable increase in clouds in higher latitudes. |

