Scientists - As Colorado Burns, Expect "Consistent Disruption Of Fire Patterns For Half The Planet"

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Although no single fire, no matter how severe, can be concretely linked to global climate change, the climatic conditions seen in Colorado this year fit the kind of pattern scientists expect to see in the future.

In one of the most comprehensive fire-modeling studies to date, researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Texas Tech University aggregated 16 separate climate models to map future fire-prone regions of the globe.

Their findings suggest that, in the decades to come, fire prevalence will decrease in tropical regions -- but will increase, possibly severely, at more northerly latitudes, and particularly in the western United States.

"In next 30 years, we're looking at pretty consistent disruption of current fire patterns for over half the planet -- most of which involve increases" in severity, said lead author Max Moritz, a fire specialist based at UC Berkeley's College of Natural Resources. Toward the end of the century, he said, an increased prevalence of fire becomes a near certainty for most of the Northern Hemisphere.

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http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=scientists-predict-worse-wildfire-blazes-us-west