Fri Jun 22, 2012, 08:07 AM
Viking12 (5,944 posts)
Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere
| NATURE | VOL 486 | 7 JUNE 2012
Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Response to Viking12 (Original post)
Fri Jun 22, 2012, 08:25 AM
GliderGuider (16,093 posts)
1. An excellent, if ultimately depressing article
Diminishing the range of biological surprises resulting from bottom-up (local-to-global) and top-down (global-to-local) forcings, postponing their effects and, in the optimal case, averting a planetary-scale critical transition demands global cooperation to stem current global-scale anthropogenic forcings.
This will require reducing world population growth and per-capita resource use; rapidly increasing the proportion of the world’s energy budget that is supplied by sources other than fossil fuels while also becoming more efficient in using fossil fuels when they provide the only option; increasing the efficiency of existing means of food production and distribution instead of converting new areas or relying on wild species to feed people; and enhancing efforts to manage as reservoirs of biodiversity and ecosystem services, both in the terrestrial and marine realms, the parts of Earth’s surface that are not already dominated by humans
These are admittedly huge tasks, but are vital if the goal of science and society is to steer the biosphere towards conditions we desire, rather than those that are thrust upon us unwittingly.
The fact that the global conversation has turned to efficiency improvement in so many domains, from energy to food production to construction, is a sign that the system is maxed out, and is very near or at its breaking point.
Efficiency improvements are not a long-term solution for a bounded system in a state of constant growth. The only long-term solution is the cessation of growth.
The climate catastrophe is a thermodynamic inevitablility.
Response to GliderGuider (Reply #1)
Fri Jun 22, 2012, 11:15 AM
cbrer (1,831 posts)
The modeling for this type of forecasting is incredibly complex. And by necessity, incomplete.
Well written, eye opening article, if ultimately saddening.
''Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.''