Put bluntly, how much time do we have left?

[Duppers]

I'm referring to most human life on the planet. Serious question. (But thanks for your humor.)

What's your opinion?




GG, weigh in here. Thx.

[True Dough]

1. Until dinner?

At least four hours in my household. Might have a snack in between though.

[MFM008]

2. as a country? On the planet?

I expect mother nature to express her revulsion with a massive plague or die off or something horrible....

[Duppers]

3. Most human life on the planet.

I'll edit the OP. Thanks.

There will most certainly be a massive human die-off but how soon will that happen is my question. The environment cannot handle much more of this human plague.

[braddy]

4. Enough.

[NNadir]

5. That is a function of what "we" do. n/t.

[defacto7]

6. Some scientific studies measure it in decades,

Some in years. One study I read recently put the beginning of a mass extinction event as soon as 9 years from now when they expect the methane in the shallow arctic seabed to start massive releases. It's figured on historic core studies and recent trends. It was noted that they are only reporting the numbers, they are not predicting anything.

[GliderGuider]

7. I distinguish between human life and global industrial civilization.

I think humans will be around for quite a while yet, though not in nearly the numbers we see today. My guess is that the human population will be in the low tens of millions by 2100.

Civilization is another story. Because of all the intersecting and mutually amplifying pressures from climate change, ecological collapse, resource shortages, debt overburden and out-of-control geopolitics (the Limits to Growth scenario on steroids), I don't think civilization as we know it has much more than 20 years to run. When it comes apart it could tear quite rapidly. The collapse of industrial civilization will be the domino that triggers the population collapse.

[defacto7]

8. I very much agree...

At times I wonder if what we see on the geopolitical landscape is just setting up for the end game. The scenarios you suggest are not unknown or new, they're just not catagorized as tin hat anymore. It's a reaonable argument.

[GliderGuider]

9. What we're seeing in geopolitics and the rise of Trump

Last edited Sun Feb 12, 2017, 08:20 PM - Edit history (1)

This is the normal, expected behaviour of the human system as global pressures build with no relief valves available. We can't predict the details, but the broad strokes are clear - rising authoritarianism and increasing international turmoil as nations jockey for survival become the order of the day. Trump and Putin are symptoms of the collapse that's now underway.

[Duppers]

13. Thank You! I always value your knowledge, GG.

I agree with all you've said.
I hope, however, that civilization has perhaps 35 to 40 years. Probably not realistic, I know. But because my one and only child, my son has just finished grad school and embarked upon a career, I'd like to think he could live a longer life. In that way, I'm like every other mother, our children are our first concerns, or should be. At least I have only one offspring to grieve for. I contributed only one more polluter. /


❤ to you for Valentine's day.

[NickB79]

10. By 2050, global civ will be crumbling

Lots of failed states, regional wars, and climate refugees streaming across borders. Coastal cities will try and fail to hold back the seas, and crop yields globally will be collapsing. Think Somalia or Syria across large parts of the subequatorial and equatorial areas, with strongmen and dictators leading militias against rival warlords.

By 2100, I expect most of the globe will have reverted to a 19th century level or worse, with pockets of high tech civilization hanging on at higher latitudes. The equatorial regions will be completely uninhabitable. Global populations will probably number under 3 billion and dropping.

[OKIsItJustMe]

11. Hmmm... I'm in an odd position here

Most of the time I find myself trying to convince people that the threat is real and serious. However, I'm not looking for the death of “most human life on the planet” to happen in seven years, or by 2050 or by 2100.

[defacto7]

12. I'm not looking for it either..

but it seems to have found us in one measure or another. Whether it's ten years or a thousand, I'm not going down without a fight... I'm also not going down unaware of humanities potential both progressive and destructive.