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hatrack

(59,447 posts)
Fri Apr 29, 2016, 08:11 AM Apr 2016

GBR Mass Bleaching Made 175 Times More Likely By Anthropogenic Warming - Guardian

The hot water temperature that drove the devastating bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef this year was made 175 times more likely by human-caused climate change, and could be normal in just 18 years, according to preliminary findings by leading climate and coral reef scientists.

The scientists said they took the unusual step of releasing the work prior to peer-review, because the methods used to reach the findings are now accepted in the climate science community and the alarming results needed to be released as quickly as possible. “We are confident in the results because these kind of attribution studies are well established but what we found demands urgent action if we are to preserve the reef,” said Andrew King, a lead author of the study from the University of Melbourne.

They found the record warm temperatures in the Coral Sea that drove the bleaching this year were driven by a combination of 1C of warming since 1900 caused by greenhouse gas emissions, and about a 0.5C jump in temperature driven by natural variability.

Using climate model simulations, the team found such an event was incredibly unusual in models that did not include the effects of greenhouse gasses. But when those effects were put back in, temperatures such as those seen this March were 175 times more likely. Moreover, despite most of the current temperature record being driven by natural changes in temperature, they found that once greenhouse gasses reach levels expected in 2034, temperatures seen this March will be the new average for the Coral Sea.

EDIT

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/29/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-made-175-times-likelier-by-human-caused-climate-change-say-scientists

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