Thu Mar 22, 2012, 01:35 PM
hatrack (38,165 posts)
Volume Of Inquiries During "Summer In March" Heatwave Enough To Crash Parts Of NOAA Website
One measure of how recordbreaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back online this morning with software reengineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.
We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean. In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value: Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7% Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5% Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27% Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000% Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000% Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000% So, if we have a 30year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4sigma days over the past week. EDIT http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2057

2 replies, 617 views
Always highlight: 10 newest replies  Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
2 replies  Author  Time  Post 
Volume Of Inquiries During "Summer In March" Heatwave Enough To Crash Parts Of NOAA Website (Original post) 
hatrack  Mar 2012  OP 
OKIsItJustMe  Mar 2012  #1  
Viking12  Mar 2012  #2 
Response to hatrack (Original post)
Thu Mar 22, 2012, 01:48 PM
OKIsItJustMe (15,299 posts)
1. Be sure to check out the graph
Response to hatrack (Original post)
Thu Mar 22, 2012, 01:49 PM
Viking12 (6,012 posts)
2. "It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred
unless the climate was warming"
Ya think? 