Nearly Half Of US Jobs Could Be Replaced By Machines

[eridani]

http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2016/03/nearly-half-us-jobs-could-be-replaced-machines

A recent study by the Oxford Martin School and Citi, with OECD data from the World Bank, found that an average of 57 percent of workers around the world are at risk of being replaced by automation.

The study’s authors do recognize, however, that not all of these jobs will be automated. They explain that “a job is considered to be ‘exposed to automation’ or ‘automatable’ if the tasks it entails allows the work to be performed by a computer, even if a job is not actually automated.”

The jobs in question are mainly low-skilled positions, including jobs in transportation and logistics, office support and manufacturing.

Forty-seven percent of U.S. workers face a risk of automation. Not all cities share equal risk, however. Fresno, California, takes the top spot, with 53.8 percent exposed to automation, followed closely by Las Vegas and Greensboro, Alabama. For cities with the lowest risk, Boston and Washington D.C. tie with 38.4 percent.

“Notably, the cities with the highest share of their workforce exposed to automation (with the exception of Grand Rapids [at 47.9 percent]), do not include any Rust Belt manufacturing cities, such as Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit,” the study authors write.

Although 47 percent seems fairly high, in a global context, it isn’t so bad. Ethiopia, for example, carries an 85 percent risk of job automation — the highest in the study. On the ether end of the spectrum, U.K. workers face only a 35 percent risk.

[DetlefK]

1. All the "grinding" jobs will be gone. Jobs that need flexibility are safe.

Service, artisanal/tailor-made to specifications, science.

[eridani]

2. Yes, but there are comparatively few people with jobs like that n/t

[Nitram]

3. Get training to run the machines.

Or repair them.

[eridani]

7. There is only a tiny number of people required for those roles n/t

[Nitram]

8. Not really.

They require constant maintenance, and skill to repair. Our copy machine breaks down on a regular basis. A guy comes in and fixes it.

[eridani]

9. And how many hundreds of people were required to design and build it?

And sell it, and keep track of the payrolls and all the clerical support work?

[Baobab]

11. This is a deceptive post. People would get the impression from this that a far fewer number of jobs

will be automated than actually will be. by midcentury almost all jobs done today will be able to be automated. Whether they will or not depends on a lot of things, some jobs will remain human performed for sentimental reasons. Also, security may be a big driver of automation as jobs get scarcer people will grow more and more desperate and its likely having employees will become dangerous as they are an attack surface. Automation will minimize the potential attack surface for business. Imagine how difficult it will be when each employee is supporting a whole extended family of people. its like it is in Africa or India when an entire family saves up to put a single student through school and they screw up, often they commit suicide. The pressure is too high. So businesses will go with technology even if there is a risk of rough edges.

[elleng]

4. As I've already suggested,

looks like we ALL could use a new paradigm, like Canada's:

Looks like 'wealth,' or at least compensation/income will have to be rethought.

Maybe something like Canada's new approach? Ontario, Canada announced a plan to test Universal Basic Income for all citizens.

http://qz.com/633974/ontario-canada-announced-a-plan-to-test-universal-basic-income-for-all-citizens/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1471025

[Baobab]

12. that is prohibited by secretive ideology, "competition policy"

It is likely prohibited by such policy if it would have an adverse financial effect on banks profits. banks invest in building buildings, etc, with the expectation of profits from foreclosures, etc.

Look at it this way, would governments EVER compete with businesses under a neoliberal paradigm like the washington consensus we live under?

? Suppose I live in a country where bottled water is sold. And a new water plant needs to be built. For the government to build that plant is now considered eveil, its framed as a state owned enterprise and a form of theft of a corporations rightful profits.


Imagine if there was a drought. Water would become immensely valuable. If that is the case, for every bottle of water sold below its fair market value, perhaps the taxpayers should compensate the water companies for the theft of their business.

Crowd-out in health insurance works similarly. Imagine if the government let people drink water for free. Where would it stop?

[elleng]

13. Exactly.

Their fat asses will have to be kicked, WORLDWIDE, and will need big kickers to do so.

[HuskiesHowls]

5. Looking at the crop of young people, that's the only way we can go

I work for a small printer in Des Moines, Ia, and we're looking for people. Unfortunately, the only ones we've been able to even get to apply don't want to work, or are so lazy they make a sloth look industrious. One young man that seemed to be halfway acceptable lost his job there because he didn't come in to work for several days, without calling anyone, because he'd had a fight with his girlfriend. Another one was so slow, it would take him about 5 minutes to walk the 150 ft across our shop--but BOY could he run his mouth!!

As for me, I'm old enough to retire, and I can't even get a full weeks vacation because we're busy and short-handed. I'd love to quit working and spend my time doing what I want to do, but I don't see that happening anytime in the near future. My job is considered a skilled craft, and unfortunately, it seems no one wants a job that would require them to do some real work and do some learning.

[Baobab]

14. Soon you'll be able to get four workers for what one of them costs

Even more.


Vote for Hillary. She knows what business likes.

[HuskiesHowls]

18. It doesn't matter how many you can get

If they're not going to do the work in a timely manner, what good are they?

There really are jobs that are time-sensitive, and somebody will have to do them.

[Baobab]

19. They will be picked by objective and verifyable criteria

like college degrees, they could all have an MS. You don't have any choice, if they are qualified

Is there any government money involved?

[Baobab]

17. I had a friend who used to do that, she was trained in how to work with very cutting edge six color

printing processes. She was extremely good. magazine she worked with/for became an aquisition target.. I think she did quite well for herself.

Quite a transition from a very crazy place with a constantly dysfunctional management crisis going on 24 hours a day

[snot]

6. What this means is that we need to own controlling interests in the machines –

or in our government.

Then, we can live lives of leisure, so to speak.

[eridani]

10. ^^this^^

You can't just have fewer and fewer people making more and more stuff, and then tell the people no longer needed for making stuff that they can't have any.

[Baobab]

15. The machines will make more expensive stuff that lasts a shorter period of time.

Nobody is telling them that. Their money is worth just as much as anybody elses

The magic of the marketplace.

[Baobab]

16. When the machines catch up with us in terms of intelligence, it may work out the other way around

Some humans may be kept as pets by the intelligent machines.

Those humans who invested them are their "parents" and you don't just put your parents out on the street, you know.

Humans need air, water, food, Machines just need electricity. And some limits on temperatures and from radiation.

[Baobab]

20. No way could people afford to own the politician machines

They are very complicated.

Just ask Disney.

[snot]

21. Um, excuse me, but were you waiting for someone to give it to you?

We either require it for ourselves, actively; or others let rob us.