STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Wednesday, 30 April 2014

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, 30 April 2014[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 29 April 2014

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 29 April 2014
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Dow Jones 16,535.37 +86.63 (0.53%)
S&P 500 1,878.33 +8.90 (0.48%)
Nasdaq 4,103.54 +29.00 (0.00%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.69% -0.03 (-1.10%)
30 Year 3.49% -0.03 (-0.85%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.








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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. Are there any sane people left?

I just got out of a 3 hour board meeting into a thunderstorm, and home to another kind of storm...

I'm certainly well over the thin line into trauma. Keep safe, everyone. Bad weather ahead!

[Fuddnik]

2. Nope. We're all crazy.

[Demeter]

23. I was afraid of that

Honestly, if it's darkest before the dawn, the next thing I see will be a thermonuclear explosion, from the orchestra seats, first row, center.

[Fuddnik]

37. I hope it's not tomorrow night.

Got tickets to see this guy.

[kickysnana]

3. It snowed all day here but it did not stick.

Really strange sleet and rain all around us. We were in some kind of a cold sync.

[Demeter]

24. You mean, cold sink? As in a well of chill?

or that it keeps cycling?

[kickysnana]

46. Yes. North, south, east and west of us were warmer.

[xchrom]

4. ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS YEAR PROGRESSES

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY_GDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-30-06-13-47

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy likely stumbled at the start of this year, but there's probably little reason to worry: Economists foresee a solid rebound with the end of a harsh winter.

The Commerce Department on Wednesday will issue the first of three estimates of how fast the economy grew in the January-March quarter. The expectation is that growth slowed to an annual rate of around 1.1 percent, a lackluster pace that would be sharply down from a 2.6 percent annual growth rate in the previous quarter.

Economists think the first-quarter slump, caused in large part by the severe winter, will give way to stronger growth that should endure through the rest of the year.

Most analysts say a bounce-back in consumer spending, business investment and job growth will lift growth in the second quarter.

[Demeter]

11. Without anybody lifting a finger, either

They must have enslaved some more fairies.

[xchrom]

5. GLOBAL STOCKS MIXED AFTER JAPAN POLICY UNCHANGED

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WORLD_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-30-04-19-04

BEIJING (AP) -- Global stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors looked ahead to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting after Japan's central bank left monetary policy unchanged despite signs of weaker economic growth.

Oil fell below $101 as markets shrugged off new sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 0.1 percent to close at 14,304.11 after the Bank of Japan avoided changes in its ultra-loose policy despite concern that an April 1 consumption tax hike will sap growth. The Shoko Chukin survey showed business confidence in April sank to its lowest level since February 2013.

"Firms do not expect conditions to recover quickly," Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a report.

[xchrom]

6. EUROZONE INFLATION RISES TO 0.7 PERCENT IN APRIL

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-30-06-29-53

LONDON (AP) -- Inflation across the 18-country eurozone rose in April, official figures showed Wednesday, but not as much as had been anticipated in the markets. Even so, few economists think the European Central Bank is quite ready to back another stimulus to the eurozone economy.

Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said consumer prices rose by 0.7 percent in April from the year before, up from the previous month's 0.5 percent.

The expectation in the markets was for a slightly bigger rise to 0.8 percent. An increase had been predicted largely because of the timing of Catholic Easter, which often prompts a rise in prices, particularly in the services sector. Last year it fell in March so that increase dropped out of the annual comparison.

Despite the rise, many economists expect inflation to fall again in coming months. However, the ECB thinks deflation, or an outright fall in prices, is unlikely. Deflation can weigh on the recovery as falling prices may prompt consumers to delay purchases and businesses to be reluctant to invest.

[xchrom]

7. GREECE EXPECTS HIGHER BUDGET SURPLUSES

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/greece-expects-higher-budget-surpluses

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece's will achieve better-than-expected budget figures in 2014 year but that unemployment would only decline slowly over the coming four years, the country's finance ministry said Wednesday.

The ministry said it expects to achieve a primary budget surplus — what's left after debt and interest payments — of 2.3 percent of the country's annual economic output, up from its previous prediction of 1.5 percent. By 2018, it expects to post a primary surplus of 5.3 percent in 2018.

Achieving a primary surplus has been one of the main purposes of the austerity medicine the country has taken over the past few years.

After being locked out of international bond markets in 2010, Greece has relied on billions of euros of bailout funds from its partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. In return it has had to impose tough spending cuts and tax rises alongside a wide-ranging economic reform program in order to get its public finances into shape and get Greece in a position to stand on its own again.

[xchrom]

8. SHELL: NOT ENTERING NEW RUSSIA INVESTMENTS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_NETHERLANDS_EARNS_SHELL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-30-06-21-10

AMSTERDAM (AP) -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC says it will not be entering new investments in Russia anytime soon as tensions rise over the country's confrontation with Ukraine.

Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said the company, Europe's largest oil company, will continue to oversee its existing operations and will cooperate with any sanctions placed upon Russia by Western powers. Amid the uncertainty, however, it will hold back on starting new projects.

"I don't think we'll be jumping into new investments (in Russia) anytime soon," Henry said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday after the company reported first quarter earnings. Shell has previously also said its early-stage plans for developing shale gas in Ukraine are on hold.

Meanwhile, Henry defended a meeting this month between Shell CEO Ben van Beurden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying it should not be interpreted as the company taking sides in the Ukrainian crisis. One of Shell's key operations is a gas production and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, plant on Russia's Sakhalin island. Van Beurden and Putin met at the 20th anniversary of Sakhalin's opening, and re-affirmed existing plans to expand the project's capacity.

[xchrom]

9. EUROZONE INFLATION RISES TO 0.7 PERCENT IN APRIL

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-30-06-29-53

LONDON (AP) -- Inflation across the 18-country eurozone rose in April, official figures showed Wednesday, but not as much as had been anticipated in the markets. Even so, few economists think the European Central Bank is quite ready to back another stimulus to the eurozone economy.

Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said consumer prices rose by 0.7 percent in April from the year before, up from the previous month's 0.5 percent.

The expectation in the markets was for a slightly bigger rise to 0.8 percent. An increase had been predicted largely because of the timing of Catholic Easter, which often prompts a rise in prices, particularly in the services sector. Last year it fell in March so that increase dropped out of the annual comparison.

Despite the rise, many economists expect inflation to fall again in coming months. However, the ECB thinks deflation, or an outright fall in prices, is unlikely. Deflation can weigh on the recovery as falling prices may prompt consumers to delay purchases and businesses to be reluctant to invest.

[xchrom]

10. Spanish economy grew 0.4% in first quarter of 2014

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/30/inenglish/1398847932_170979.html

The Spanish economy grew 0.4 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, according to preliminary figures released on Wednesday by the national statistics office INE.

The figure coincides with a flash estimate from the Bank of Spain a week ago.

The GDP figure represents the quickest pace of growth since 2008, when Spain’s economic crisis began.

Compared to the same period a year ago, the economy has picked up at a pace of 0.6 percent.

[xchrom]

12. Spanish labor market continued to shed jobs in first quarter of 2014

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/29/inenglish/1398761898_233800.html

Spain continued to shed jobs in the first quarter of 2014 despite signs of economic recovery. The pace of job destruction was slower, however.

Figures released on Tuesday by the National Statistics Office (INE) show that the number of those in work fell by 184,600 individuals in the first quarter to 16,950,600, which is one of the lowest employment figures in Spain since 2002.

The jobless rate in March reached 25.93%, 0.2% higher than at the end of 2013. This rise has occurred despite a slight drop in the number of jobless (2,300), which is due solely to the fact that people have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer seeking employment. In one year, the labor force has shrunk by 424,500 people.

The 5,933,300 people out of a job, the INE notes, represent the first drop in the jobless rate in a first quarter since 2005.

[xchrom]

13. Government ups growth forecasts to 1.2% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/25/inenglish/1398415914_032476.html

Two days after stating that the Spanish economy will grow an average of 1.5% in 2014 and 2015, sources briefed on the matter said the government is expecting these figures to be 1.2% this year and 1.8% the next.

The new estimates will be officially announced next week, when Madrid sends Brussels its stability program, the same sources said.

The new growth forecast for 2014 is significantly higher than the previous figure of 0.7%, while the 2015 estimate is six tenths of a point higher than the executive’s most recent forecast for 2015.

The new numbers are in line with the Bank of Spain’s own forecasts (1.2% for 2014 and 1.7% for 2015), as well as those of all the main Spanish financial research services (1.0% this year and 1.8% the next), and the European Commission (1.0% and 1.7%).

[xchrom]

14. Banks save over €40 billion in capital thanks to government decree

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/24/inenglish/1398330641_511126.html

The government’s latest move to help out the banking sector has ballooned beyond all expectations. A November decree that transformed some of the banks’ deferred tax assets (DTAs) into state-guaranteed tax credits means that the sector may save as much as €40 billion. This is €10 billion more than the original government estimate, according to figures collated by EL PAÍS from Spain’s major lenders.

DTAs are used to reduce future income tax expenses, often in connection with bank losses or provisions. Generic provisions reduce a lender’s profits, but they are not tax deductible until the losses materialize. If the profit was not large enough for the bank to save itself that tax, then the DTAs were lost. But under the new rules, the state backs them with public debt.

The €40.5 billion in state-backed tax credits held by Spain’s 15 main lenders is 35 percent higher than the original estimate of €30 billion offered by Economy Minister Luis de Guindos when he presented the decree.

[xchrom]

15. Economic Growth in U.S. Probably Slowed by Harsh Winter Weather

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/economic-growth-in-u-s-probably-slowed-by-harsh-winter-weather.html

The U.S. economy probably grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace in a year as harsh winter weather chilled consumers and businesses, economists project a report today to show.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.2 percent annualized rate from January through March after rising at a 2.6 percent pace in the previous three months, based on the median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It would be the weakest since the first quarter of 2013.

The pullback came as snow blanketed much of the eastern half of the country, keeping shoppers from stores, preventing builders from breaking ground and raising costs for companies including United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Retail sales, employment and manufacturing rebounded at the end of the quarter, which probably heralds a rebound in growth for the rest of 2014.

“This quarter reflects everything that’s been bad about the long and cold winter,” said Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. research and strategy at TD Securities USA LLC in New York. “It betrays fairly strong underlying fundamentals that we believe continue to exist.”

[Demeter]

17. Baby, it's STILL cold outside

And I'm not talking about the weather,only.

[Demeter]

16. Today's Funnies

The haste was unseemly...and for the Church, unprecedented. I do wonder what was up with that...trying to tie Poland up with a bow? Pandering to Poles?

[xchrom]

19. indeed, the haste was unseemly. nt

[Tansy_Gold]

38. And for those of us who aren't Catholic

irrelevant.

Personally, I think it's a plea for attention, and they're going to get all the wrong kind. This Francis dude hasn't addressed some of the most unpopular aspects of Roman Catholicism -- and probably the most important of those is the continuing relegation of women to second class humanity. Women can't be priests, a pregnant woman is just a uterus, etc.

Francis isn't the reformer too many people think he is. He may have forgone the fancy lifestyle, but he's still spouting the party line of patriarchy uber alles.

[xchrom]

39. there is a really strong Marian movement within the catholic church

that would see Mary elevated to the status of redeemer.

i think it's time and i think there is a sincere appetite to deal with the elevation of women within the church.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. But Francis isn't leading that movement

And there's always been a strong Marian wing of the Church. Some would say it's been allowed to exist as a sop to keep the faithful from demanding more.

But I'm speaking as one totally outside the Church, who views it as a political (and for many years, economic) actor; I'm not a believer so I don't have that perspective. I have other prejudices.

[Demeter]

41. If I may: Maestro, please!

[xchrom]

45. yeah -- i'm an Episcopalian and i come late to liturgical churches.

oddly enough -- the old Pole was a strong Marian.

[xchrom]

18. Putin Threat to Retaliate for Sanctions Carries Risks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/putin-threat-to-retaliate-for-sanctions-carries-risks.html

President Vladimir Putin’s threats to retaliate for further sanctions on Russia set the stage for escalating economic warfare that may have painful effects for U.S. and European companies.

While the Russian leader is casting himself as reluctant to take countermeasures against additional penalties from the U.S. and European Union, he hasn’t ruled out doing so eventually. Such a move could dash billions of dollars in foreign investment in some of the world’s biggest untapped oil reserves.

“I would expect Putin to make life somewhat difficult for foreign companies in Russia whose governments are doing the sanctioning,” said Gary Hufbauer, a sanctions specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Putin’s warning yesterday of consequences for U.S. and European companies came hours after the EU announced new measures over the crisis in Ukraine. His comments took aim at the interests of companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), which has drilling rights to 11.4 million net acres (46,134 square kilometers) in Russia, the company’s biggest single cache of drilling rights outside the U.S. Exxon also is planning Arctic drilling in an alliance with state-owned OAO Rosneft.

[Demeter]

42. Well, yes, that's the general idea

I really liked the description that Putin is playing chess (and very well, I might add), and the US and EU can barely manage the moves in checkers.

[xchrom]

20. Fed Citing Wall Street Lapses Leads Drive on Bonds as Pay

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/fed-citing-wall-street-lapses-leads-drive-on-bonds-as-pay.html

The Federal Reserve is considering a requirement that the biggest banks add their bonds to pay packages for top executives.

The goal would be to align bankers’ compensation more closely with their institutions’ financial stability. Stock awards provide incentives to boost profits, while bonds would decline in value if a bank takes too much risk.

The concept has support from other regulators who are growing impatient with continued abuses on Wall Street.

“When you are talking about encouraging proper behavior,” incentives are “very important, and certainly compensation is a huge factor on how people conduct themselves,” Thomas Curry, the comptroller of the currency, said in an interview.

[xchrom]

21. Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas Charges Said to Be Considered

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/credit-suisse-bnp-paribas-charges-said-to-be-considered.html

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and BNP Paribas SA (BNP) are at risk of being criminally charged by U.S. and state prosecutors, a person familiar with the matter said, signaling that authorities are taking a tougher approach as they seek to resolve probes of major banks.

Credit Suisse has been the target since 2011 of a U.S. criminal probe into whether it helped Americans evade taxes. BNP Paribas has been the subject of a federal probe into possible violations of sanctions barring business with prohibited countries.

Prosecuting the companies would break with a past practice of brokering settlements with large banks that are considered integral to the financial system. Previous probes have been resolved through so-called non-prosecution and deferred-prosecution agreements, which have been criticized by U.S. senators for failing to hold banks accountable for breaking the law.

The Justice Department’s tax division and prosecutors in Alexandria, Virginia, are leading the tax probe of Credit Suisse. Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. and David O’Neil, the head of the Justice Department’s criminal division in Washington, are working together in the BNP Paribas investigation, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. Benjamin Lawsky, superintendent of New York’s Department of Financial Services, has begun examining whether Zurich-based Credit Suisse helped evade New York taxes and is also investigating BNP Paribas.

[xchrom]

22. Ukraine to Ease Capital Controls as Bailout Buoys Hryvnia

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/ukraine-to-ease-capital-controls-as-bailout-buoys-hryvnia.html


Ukraine plans to phase out capital controls as a potential $17 billion International Monetary Fund rescue buoys the hryvnia, a document obtained by Bloomberg News shows.

The Natsionalnyi Bank Ukrainy will draw up a plan by the end of July to gradually cancel curbs on foreign-currency sales imposed in February, according to an April 22 letter of intent to the Washington-based lender, obtained by Bloomberg. The bank won’t set new restrictions or expand the existing limits, according to the document, which covers economic policy and is signed by officials including Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

“We aim to maintain the implementation of a flexible foreign-currency policy,” the Ukrainian officials said in a memorandum attached to the letter. “In exceptional cases, the NBU may sell a limited volume of foreign currency to help restrict devaluation expectations.”

The central bank’s press service declined to comment immediately on the authenticity of the document. IMF spokeswoman Olga Stankova also declined to comment.

[xchrom]

25. Biggest Buyout Gone Bust in Energy Future Dims Megadeals

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/biggest-buyout-gone-bust-in-energy-future-dims-megadeals.html

The failure of Energy Future Holdings Corp., known as TXU Corp. when KKR & Co., TPG Capital and Goldman Sachs Capital Partners acquired it for $48 billion in 2007, and the stumbles of other huge deals of the past decade have reshaped how major buyout firms go about their trade.

The Dallas-based utility’s bankruptcy yesterday ended the biggest leveraged buyout on record and will wipe out most of the $8.3 billion of equity that investors led by three of the world’s largest private-equity firms sank into the company.

“Energy Future is emblematic of the peak of the buyout boom, when firms did very high-priced, over-leveraged deals that left little room for error,” said Steven Kaplan, professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “When you buy into a cyclical industry at the peak and you get the bet wrong, bad things happen.”

TXU marked the climax of an era when buyouts stretched into the tens of billions on dollars and Carlyle Group LP’s David Rubenstein predicted there would be a $100 billion LBO. After many of those deals faltered in the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, private-equity investors mostly shied away from companies valued at $20 billion and up, arguing that such buyouts are often overpriced, overburdened with debt and too big to exit easily.

[Demeter]

43. I ESPECIALLY like the part where KKR and Goldman lose it all

It's about time.

[Fuddnik]

44. When you lose it all, pass out bigger bonuses!

It's only the shareholders money anyway.

[xchrom]

26. German Unemployment Falls a Fifth Month as Economy Grows

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/german-unemployment-falls-a-fifth-month-as-economy-grows.html

German unemployment fell more than twice as much as forecast in April in a sign that Europe’s largest economy will continue to lead the recovery in the euro area.

The number of people out of work decreased for a fifth month, dropping a seasonally-adjusted 25,000 to 2.872 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, according to the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the lowest level in two decades.

Germany has benefited from ultra-low interest rates in the euro area and the emergence last year of the 18-nation currency bloc from its longest-ever recession. The Bundesbank said this week that consumer sentiment and demand for housing construction in the country remain “exceptionally favorable.”

“Germany is well known for its exports but we also see a very positive trend for domestic demand,” said Heinrich Bayer, an economist at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn. “That’s good news for the country’s labor market and, of course, for the economy in the entire euro area.”

[xchrom]

27. ECB Gets Mixed Inflation Signals as Draghi Considers QE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/euro-area-april-inflation-quickens-less-than-estimated.html

Mario Draghi got conflicting signals on inflation in April as the European Central Bank considers taking unprecedented steps as soon as next week to avert the risk of deflation.

The headline annual inflation rate missed forecasts in rising to 0.7 percent from 0.5 percent in March, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Yet the core rate, which strips out volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose in line with estimates to 1 percent, and the price of services increased at the fastest pace in more than a year.

“We didn’t have a shocker, or a smoking gun, that the ECB could use to ease as soon as next week,” said Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Paris. Ducrozet said he sticks by his forecast of a cut in the main refinancing rate in June, with a deposit rate reduction, pushing it into negative territory, if the euro appreciates.

[xchrom]

28. China Set to Overtake U.S. as Biggest Economy Using PPP Measure

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/china-set-to-overtake-u-s-as-biggest-economy-using-ppp-measure.html

China is poised to overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy, while India has vaulted into third place, ahead of Japan, using calculations that take exchange rates into account.

China’s economy was 87 percent of the size of that of the U.S. in 2011, assessed according to so-called purchasing power parity, the International Comparison Program said in a statement in Washington yesterday. The program, which involves organizations including the World Bank and United Nations, had put the figure at 43 percent in 2005.

Changes in methodology contributed to the speed of China’s rise and India jumping to third-biggest in 2011 from 10th in 2005. Purchasing power parity seeks to compare how far money goes in each country. Using market rates, U.S. gross domestic product was $16.2 trillion in 2012, compared with China’s $8.2 trillion.

[xchrom]

29. Asian Stocks Drop on Earnings as BOJ Maintains Stimulus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/asian-stocks-rise-ahead-of-bank-of-japan-fed-decisions.html

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for a one-month low, as investors weighed corporate earnings and the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding stimulus. The Federal Reserve decides on U.S. monetary policy later today.

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation’s biggest producer of the light metal, fell 4.5 percent in Hong Kong after its first-quarter loss widened. Woolworths Ltd. slid 1.9 percent as the Australian retailer’s sales fell short of expectations. Tencent Holdings Ltd. was the biggest drag on the regional gauge amid a selloff in technology shares. Kyocera Corp. rose 3.4 percent in Tokyo after the electronics and solar-panel maker reported full-year profit that beat analyst estimates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 137.18 at 4:12 p.m. in Hong Kong, set for its lowest close since March 28. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s board stuck with targeting an annual increase in the monetary base of between 60 trillion yen and 70 trillion yen ($683 billion) in a decision released today. The central bank is monitoring the economy’s performance after a sales-tax increase on April 1 that’s projected to trigger a one-quarter contraction on weaker consumer spending.

“No one was expecting any change” from the BOJ, said Takashi Aoki, who helps oversee the equivalent of $37.6 billion at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The consensus for change is July, once they can see the data from April-June.”

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30. Spain's economy grows at fastest pace in six years

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/uk-spain-economy-idUKKBN0DG0OX20140430

(Reuters) - Spain's gross domestic product rose at its fastest quarterly pace in six years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated, in the latest sign the country's economy is picking up steam after years of recession.

Economic output rose 0.4 percent on a quarterly basis, double that reported in the final three months of 2013. Year on year, the economy expanded a greater-than-expected 0.6 percent, the sharpest increase in three years, National Statistics Institute data showed on Wednesday.

European-Union harmonised consumer prices meanwhile, which in March shrank 0.2 percent, rose 0.3 percent year on year in April, as expected.

That may serve as a pointer for euro zone inflation numbers due later in the morning, which are expected to show a rise to 0.8 percent from 0.5 percent in March, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to act against deflationary trends.

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31. Europe's top court rejects UK challenge on financial trading tax

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/uk-eu-britain-ftt-idUKKBN0DG0Q420140430

(Reuters) - Britain's legal challenge to a financial transactions tax was rejected by Europe's highest court, dealing another blow to attempts to shield London's financial centre from the influence of Brussels.

Wednesday's ruling throws out the legal action intended to prevent a group of 11 countries, including Germany and France, from introducing a trading tax, and was seized on by critics as evidence of the British government's impotence in fighting its corner in Europe.

Britain, where financial services account for a tenth of the economy, making the sector one of the country's biggest tax generators, had argued that trading in London would be affected, even though it would be outside the zone of a tax that is anyway likely to be scaled back.

The tax, intended as a way of clawing back some of the taxpayer cash paid to shore up banks in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, would consist of a small charge on each stock, bond and derivative trade carried out in the 11 countries.

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32. US Mortgage Applications Sink To Lowest Level Since December 2000

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-mortgage-market-index-hits-lowest-since-december-2000-mba-2014-30

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week to their lowest level since December 2000 as both refinancing and purchase applications declined, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 5.9 percent to 333.2 in the week ended April 25. That was the lowest level since December 2000, the group said.

"Purchase application volume remains weak despite other data which indicated the overall pace of economic growth is picking up. The combination of higher rates, new regulation and tight inventory are all leading to a weaker spring market than we have seen in years," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications declined 6.9 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 4.4 percent.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-mortgage-market-index-hits-lowest-since-december-2000-mba-2014-30#ixzz30N3BmKfu

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33. IMF: Russia Is Already In Recession

http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-russia-is-already-in-recession-2014-4

The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that Russia is already in recession and slashed its growth forecast for 2014 citing the effect of the Ukraine crisis on investment.
"If we define recession as negative growth in two quarters in a row, then Russia from that point of view is experiencing recession," IMF economist Antonio Spilimbergo was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

The IMF has lowered its 2014 growth forecast for Russia to 0.2 percent from the 1.3-percent figure it issued on April 8, Spilimbergo said.

"We have clarified our forecast on Russia's economic growth. We expect growth at the level of 0.2 percent this year."



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-russia-is-already-in-recession-2014-4#ixzz30N46HL8D

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34. Japan's Manufacturing Output Tumbles To A 14-Month Low

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-manufacturing-pmi-april-2014-4

Japan's April Markit manufacturing survey yielded some mixed results.
The headline PMI fell to 49.4 in April from 53.9 in March.

This was the first sub-50 reading in 14 months, and any reading below 50 signals contraction.

“As was expected, the implementation of the increase in the sales tax negatively impacted on Japanese manufacturing companies," noted Markit's Amy Brownbill. "Output and new orders both fell for the first time in 14 months. In both cases, Japanese manufacturing companies linked the reductions to the increase in the sales tax."

On the plus side, the labor market seems to be in good order.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-manufacturing-pmi-april-2014-4#ixzz30N4XOLCV

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35. European Companies Are Supplying China With Billions In Weapons And Military Technology

http://www.businessinsider.com/european-companies-are-supplying-china-with-billions-in-weapons-and-military-technology-2014-4

As China boosts its military spending, rattling neighbours over territorial disputes at sea, an AFP investigation shows that European countries have approved billions in transfers of weapons and military-ready technology to the Asian giant.

China's air force relies on French-designed helicopters, while submarines and frigates involved in Beijing's physical assertion of its claim to vast swathes of the South China Sea are powered by German and French engines -- part of a separate trade in "dual use" technology to Beijing's armed forces.

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced stepped-up production of the Airbus EC175 helicopter in China during his visit to France this month -- a deal analysts said could result in technology transfers to the military.

"European exports are very important for the Chinese military," said Andrei Chang, editor of the Hong Kong-based Kanwa Asian Defense Review.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/european-companies-are-supplying-china-with-billions-in-weapons-and-military-technology-2014-4#ixzz30N5y5c6M

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36. Some US Companies Are Starting To Feel Pain From Ukraine Crisis

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-some-us-companies-starting-to-feel-pain-from-ukraine-crisis-2014-30

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Turmoil in Ukraine and a series of Western sanctions on Russia are starting to hurt some U.S. corporations doing business in the region, with the latest round of U.S. penalties threatening to complicate matters further.
The companies have expressed concern about the weak Russian economy, the ruble's decline and the potential for the crisis to worsen. There are also worries about a possible backlash in Russia against Western products.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Tuesday that international sanctions on Russia were putting pressure on Russia's economy, and more actions could be taken if Moscow did not step back from the Ukraine crisis.

Companies began feeling the pain in the first quarter, "but it seems to be worse and more uncertain and spreading in the second quarter, which will obviously impact future earnings reports," said Clement Miller, investment strategist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-some-us-companies-starting-to-feel-pain-from-ukraine-crisis-2014-30#ixzz30N75tMCl