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Wed May 23, 2012, 10:11 AM

Facebook IPO fiasco a cynic’s fantasy

The Facebook IPO is starting to look like a fiasco, not only because of mechanical glitches the first day of trading but because of alleged sneaky insider shenanigans that may have tipped off a favored few that that FB’s revenues weren’t going to be quite as robust as hoped. Morgan Stanley, the chief underwriter, is under scrutiny. Facebook shares went down in price rather than up, and the wizards of Wall Street know how to make money in either direction. So if certain favored clients had info that the unwashed masses weren’t privy to, that might not pass the smell test. Here’s the Reuters report. Here’s the AP account.

What strikes me about this is that it echoes cranky, snarly, surly things written in this space in recent days. I was partly kidding, but now I’m thinking that I should be every bit as cynical as I often pretend to be.

Of course no one has actually been charged with a crime and, when and if such charges are filed, they will be presumed innocent – just not here on my blog, where we will default to invective and rage and presumptions of guilt. Why do people use the term “class warfare” as if it were something bad? <snip>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/post/facebook-ipo-fiasco-a-cynics-fantasy/2012/05/23/gJQApmKNkU_blog.html


Insight: Morgan Stanley cut Facebook estimates just before IPO

In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.

The sudden caution very close to Facebook's initial public offering - while an investor road show was under way - was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.

They said it might have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday and Tuesday - their second and third days of trading - to end more than 18 percent below the IPO price. The $38-per-share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion.

Institutions and major clients generally enjoy quick access to investment bank research, while retail clients in many cases only get it later. It is unclear whether Morgan Stanley only told its top clients about the revised view or spread the word more broadly. The company declined to comment when asked who was told about the research.
<snip>

http://news.yahoo.com/insight-morgan-stanley-cut-facebook-estimates-just-ipo-051601330--sector.html

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Reply Facebook IPO fiasco a cynic’s fantasy (Original post)
Renew Deal May 2012 OP
KurtNYC May 2012 #1
CrispyQ May 2012 #2
bemildred May 2012 #3
obxhead May 2012 #5
cbdo2007 May 2012 #4

Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 10:29 AM

1. it should have been no secret to anyone that Facebook doesn't have revenues

to justify $100 billion valuation.

Also no secret: Zuck and Wall Street are extremely greedy and there is no "lifeguard". Swim at your own risk.

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Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 10:32 AM

2. Wall Street is rigged worse than Vegas.

At least in Vegas you have a little fun & get some free drinks.

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Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 10:35 AM

3. If you aren't cynical, you aren't paying attention.

Facebook is another internet fad.

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Response to bemildred (Reply #3)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:54 PM

5. Even if it's not a fad

it's not worth anywhere near $100 billion. It simply does not have the revenue history to justify that.

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Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:32 PM

4. The bad part is, people expect their IPO stocks to go up 10% in one day.....

it used to be that you were lucky if an IPO you bought into went up 10% the first year.

I love investing in the stock market and am a big stock market supporter here, but people have unreasonable expectations these days of what stocks can do for them and what the point of the stock market is.

Now we have millions of people with buyers remorse because the stock didn't shoot up 50% the first day so they could flip it like Groupon and Pandora and these other overhyped companies, and it puts a cloud on the stock market, from a sale that actually went very well and capitalism was shown to work perfectly. Basically the stock wasn't worth as much as the company thought so it dropped. It will probably still go up over time to at least $50 or so, so what are these people going to say then???

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