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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:20 PM

Chavez Rival Maintains Lead in Poll Ahead of Oct. 7 Election

Chavez Rival Maintains Lead in Poll Ahead of Oct. 7 Election
Venezuelan opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski maintained his lead over President Hugo Chavez in the latest survey from Consultores 21, a Caracas- based polling company, less than three weeks before elections.

Capriles had 48.1 percent against 46.2 percent for Chavez in a poll taken at the end of August, Consultores 21 President Luis Christiansen said yesterday at a conference hosted by the Council of the Americas in New York. The survey of 1,000 people was taken in the last two weeks of August had a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, Christiansen said.

Chavez, who is seeking to extend nearly 14 years in power with another six-year term, is facing his toughest electoral fight yet after his opponents buried their differences and unified behind a single candidate. Pollsters are divided on who has the advantage in the race.

If we were to make a linear projection for the election, it would be that Capriles will maintain an advantage of 2.5 percent over Chavez,” he said.


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Reply Chavez Rival Maintains Lead in Poll Ahead of Oct. 7 Election (Original post)
joshcryer Sep 2012 OP
hrmjustin Sep 2012 #1
joshcryer Sep 2012 #2
hrmjustin Sep 2012 #3
joshcryer Sep 2012 #4
msongs Sep 2012 #5
joshcryer Sep 2012 #6
Peace Patriot Sep 2012 #7
joshcryer Sep 2012 #8

Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:29 PM

1. 14 years is a long time. Maybe the people want to move on.

We shall see. I hope there is no cheating in this election. I know people who are from Venezuela that love him, and some that hate him.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:45 PM

2. I don't think it is possible to cheat without it being obvious, in your face.

So I hope there aren't any attempts to cheat because it will get messy.

While I do not like electronic voting machines one iota I think that their three tier approach renders the failings of electronic voting machines moot.

You got the voting machine.

You got the paper ballots.

You got the central vote tally.

If one tries to game some or a bunch of the machines it won't mesh with the paper ballots.

If one tries to mess with the central vote tally it won't mesh with the decentralized vote tally.

Basically you would have to pay people to vote for you using fake IDs.

It would require a lot of people keeping a tight lip on such a conspiracy.

That isn't possible not in the age of cell phones where everyone has a camera.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:48 PM

3. What is the opposition candidate like? n/t

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 12:15 AM

4. He has Chavez-style policies when it comes to poverty and education.

In fact, he doubled down on the Missiones (Missions, they help educate, feed, and clothe the poorest in Venezuela; think Salvation Army), and has repeatedly said that he wants to make the Missiones law. As it stands now they're just funded through a government slush fund (where money disappears from at an alarming rate) so they can be taken away from the poor at the snap of a finger. He wants to legislate them and have them have basically their own separate government run nature.

He is pro-business, but one has to understand that's not like being pro-corporate welfare (which is what Chavez supporters claim). That slush fund I was talking about? When the reports were released it was missing billions of dollars. Dollars that could've went to the Venezuelan people. There was a big oil rig that PDVSA (Venezuela's nationalized oil company) rented through a company in Singapore set up just for the purpose of "renting" it. PDVSA rented the rig for $730,000 a day when the rig owners were paid, in actuality, $358,000 a day. That's $370,000 every single day that "company" got (which probably had all but 5 employees).

So, Capriles "pro-business" attitude isn't about corporate welfare or siphoning off Venezuelan money. He promises to audit and make sure this sort of thing isn't happening under his watch. The Venezuelan government has contracts with Chinese people to build houses, roads, infrastructure, for instance. Capriles wants to save that money going to shoddy Chinese developments and pay Venezuelans to do that work. That's what his "pro-business" attitude is about.

Capriles built hundreds of schools in his state and wants to expand education infrastructure throughout Venezuela.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 12:46 AM

5. it's not who votes, it's who counts the votes nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #5)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 12:47 AM

6. I would not like to see them try that. There will be 210,000 witnesses.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11085572

If any tampering happens it will be bloody, civil war level stuff here.

Chavez is out the door.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 04:36 PM

7. 11 out of 13 recent polls put Chavez ahead, some way ahead.

The Consultores poll is an outlier.

See the chart of 13 recent polls here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11085579

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One Month before Venezuela’s Presidential Election Polls Show Huge Leads for Chávez
By Venezuela Solidarity Campaign, September 18th 2012

With just one month left before Venezuelans go to the ballot box, a survey of recent opinion polls shows significant leads for Hugo Chávez in the race to be Venezuela’s next president.

The average of all 13 polls carried out in August and in the first week of September, saw Hugo Chávez on 51% and Henrique Capriles on 35% giving Chávez an average lead of 16% (See table 1).

Such a lead would translate into an advantage of more than two million votes for Hugo Chávez on October 7th.

Of these 13 polls surveyed, 11 gave a lead for Hugo Chávez and just two put the main challenger, Henry Capriles Radonski, ahead. (See chart 1 to the right).

In the 11 polls putting Hugo Chávez ahead, all but one gives him a lead of between 13-28%. In contrast, the two polls that put Henry Capriles Radonski ahead gave him leads of just 2% and 4%.


(my emphasis)

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Even the Wall Street Urinal admits that Chavez is ahead! (See the above OP.)

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Response to Peace Patriot (Reply #7)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 09:15 PM

8. I'm predicting that they're wrong.

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