STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 9, 2016

[Chichiri]

59 Days to California, 10 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,301, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,770, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.7% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 48, Clinton 38 (Sanders +11).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 48/50 (-2), Clinton 38/36 (+2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
Today is the last of Bernie's "great eight" states, the period between March 15 and New York when we knew full well he would command the states. Today is also the second-to-last stateside caucus in the entire primary; there are also three caucuses in the territories, but the only state caucus is North Dakota, on the same day as California. The total number of pledged delegates available from caucuses after today is 92.

There will be 778 delegates available from open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries, and 777 delegates from closed primaries. That's 1,647 delegates in total, and if Bernie picks up all of Wyoming's 14 delegates today, he will need only 56% of all remaining pledged delegates to win the majority. (That's the number Bernie supporters have been throwing around for a while now anyway, but now they won't have to round down quite so much.)

Call me pessimistic, but I think 14-0 for Bernie is the most likely outcome of today's vote in Wyoming. Once we know for sure, I'll be able to look at different scenarios going into New York and beyond. For today, let us commiserate the Wyoming results, and at the same time celebrate the resumption of Hillary's road to the nomination!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Pencil sharpeners have a rough life; they have to live off tips!

[Lucinda]

1. Thanks soo much!

[livetohike]

2. Thanks. Hope Hillary comes out of Wyoming meeting her target.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. The conspiracy theory about the DNC stealing Wyoming for Hillary is already starting

in GDP.

Just in case, I guess.

[Raissa]

4. She did just win one county...

... They said the absentee ballots went her way.

Obviously that is not possible!

Seriously though, they're worried awfully early. It's a caucus state for goodness sake.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. But they went her way 100%!!!

I wonder how many there were? If it's a small number, as I assume, then 100% is scarcely startling.

[Raissa]

6. I have no idea

But it's a good question.

I'm also curious as to how 'absentees' work within the confines of this primary. I don't know near enough about the specifics of individual caucuses.

[sarae]

7. I knew it!

I heard them saying (on TV) that even though it looked like BS support was greater, Hillary was winning the county. I knew it was a matter of time before I'd start hearing the DNC conspiracy theories...lol

[Chichiri]

8. Is my face red.

This is why I'm not a prognosticator.

[fleabiscuit]

9. The thing is...

If you were always wrong 100% of the time, that could still be very useful.