Sun Feb 21, 2016, 02:40 PM
Chichiri (4,334 posts)
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 21, 2016 (Hillary group)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 502, Sanders 70 (Clinton +432)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 51, Clinton 51 (tie).
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +10, Sanders -11
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 19, Sanders 15 (Clinton +4); 1 not yet allocated.
Versus 2/12 Targets: Clinton +3, Sanders -4.
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 28, Sanders 25.
South Carolina (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 32 (Clinton +28).
Michigan (FOX 2/Mitchell): Clinton 60, Sanders 27 (Clinton +33).
Michigan (PPP): Clinton 50, Sanders 40 (Clinton +10).
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton 99%
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 78%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 98%.
North Carolina: Clinton 97%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 65%, Rubio 23%, Cruz 12%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 97, Cruz 22, Kasich 20.
A good day for Hillary fans yesterday! But conversely, not as bad for Sanders fans as it could have been. For all the polls are unreliable, Hillary could have won by double digits instead of by 5. Bernie is still in it.
South Carolina is a fait accompli for Hillary, so that it's not a question of whether she's going to win, but by how much. For the first time, the Cook target number is higher for Hillary than for Bernie, even with her massive superdelegate lead. Right now, the median projection on 538 is Hillary 65, Bernie 32; I wouldn't be surprised if that narrows over the next week, as is wont to happen, but I have little doubt that Hillary will get the 28 delegates she needs, and then some.
On the evil side, Bush is gone and Trump took all 50 of South Carolina's delegates. Rubio crowed last night that they were now in a three-way race, and that may be true, but let's dispell with this fiction that John Kasich doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
Pun of the Day
I read about a guy who jumped off the Pont Saint-Michel bridge in Paris. He must have been in Seine!
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Replies to this discussion thread
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 21, 2016 (Hillary group) (Original post)
Response to Chichiri (Original post)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:57 PM
peggysue2 (437 posts)
Great info and I love the puns. In Seine. LOL
Btw, I've always thought Kasich was the best candidate the GOP had for the General. Thought the same thing about Jon Huntsman in 2012; he was kicked to the curb early on. Be interesting to see what happens.
As for Hillary? She delivered a severe body blow to the Sanders' campaign whether the St Bernard Brigade wishes to admit it or not. Van Jones actually pointed that out last night and he's admittedly as far left as you can get.