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Thu Nov 29, 2012, 09:38 PM

Labour in triple by election win

UKIP second in Rotherham and Middlesborough

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20541136

Desperate results for the Coalition parties particularly in the northern constituencies.

UKIP would have done even better if they had a better party machine and selected their candidates more carefully.

Tory Central office will now be very concerned about next years council elections as these tend to be a better indicator of future General Election voting intentions than Parliamentary by elections. If the UKIP vote holds up next May then the Conservatives are in serious trouble.

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Reply Labour in triple by election win (Original post)
fedsron2us Nov 2012 OP
LeftishBrit Nov 2012 #1
non sociopath skin Nov 2012 #2
fedsron2us Nov 2012 #3

Response to fedsron2us (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 03:45 AM

1. Good news though not totally unexpected

But a relief that Labour has won comfortably, and in two cases increased its majority.

The Right would have had a field day if Labour had lost any of the seats. I fear that they may still have a field day over what they will undoubtedly represent as 'UKIP defeating the LibDems'.

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Response to fedsron2us (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 05:47 AM

2. Would they?

I wonder how many of those who voted UKIP even knew or cared who the candidate was or what their policies - other than leaving Europe - were.

Other than with the personal intervention of God, Santa Claus and/or Bradley Wiggins, I can't see how the Baggy Trousered Misanthropists could have a better head start in a by-election.

The Skin

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Response to fedsron2us (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 08:44 AM

3. There are 41 Tory Marginals that could be lost on a 5% Tory voters swinging to UKIP

In over 30 of them Labour are the second place party.

http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/conmaj.htm

By my calculation UKIP would probably only have to take 3% of the Tory vote to cause Cameron some serious problems at a General Election

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